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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Exactly.
As an example: Aaron Davis is leaving. He was listed as the starter and played about 1/2 of UGA's defensive plays in 2021. Who played the other 1/2 of the plays and are they coming back?
Same with each position.
That's the kind of information that would be useful.
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bogarttad
✭✭✭✭ Senior
My point about the returning production is that it must be based on a formula that includes productivity compared to everyone else in the league as opposed to comparing this production returning as a percentage of last year's team. An example might be # of passing yards returning as compared to the other 13 teams in this conference. That way, we are at least talking about genuinely comparative data.
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UGADad20
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Blue chip ratio trumps returning production in CFB. Though having both is a huge advantage.
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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
I agree...those teams will be more competitive than they have been over the last decade. They are underestimated and undervalued by National and Conference media. But, then again, those media groups are usually a step behind reality. They were last year and the year before that.
I and most others, including you (probably), know what the SEC East is going to be next year. And, NO...UGA does not have the cake walk everybody in the media is projecting in 2022. In fact, Tennessee could very well beat Alabama and/or UGA. But, they won't be dominant in doing it.
UGA and BAMA still outclass all the other teams; however, the gap is narrowing. TEX A&M, LSU, ARK and MISS will surprise some people next year as well. But, at the end of a 2022, 12 game season, UGA and BAMA will remain the 2 standout teams because of the way they recruit and develop players.
When I say, " the way they recruit", I'm talking about more than just talent. It's about a philosophy or discipline. Those two teams recruit talent to a TEAM mindset kinda like Special Forces in the military. Not all talented players fit that mold. In fact some are disruptive to the "team" concept.
For instance...A&M is taking all comers and in the end, the negatives will cancel out some of the positives. We'll just have to wait and see on that one. I haven't done a deep dive on their recruiting class. I have on UGA's. And, I'll tell you this...the Dawgs are very well positioned for a run of Championships. Similar to the 80, 81, 82 & 83 teams...only better, because of a phenomenal coaching staff. In the 70's and early 1980's, UGA had 2 secret weapons that put them in rare air... Erk Russell (DC) and Mike Cavan (recruiter). The end of the road for UGA occurred when Russell left to build a program at Ga. Southern.
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CandlerPark
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
WHOOPS, I MEANT TO WRITE THIS INSTEAD IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH OF MY PREVIOUS COMMENT:
But: a) they may end the season ranked, b) ) they'll be more capable than the usual nemeses (FL and Auburn) of beating us, and c) assuming one of them doesn't upset us, they'll help our strength of schedule. Does that make sense to you?
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CandlerPark
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Yes, of course, the metric is two dimensional. It's just one data point. But I don't see it as all or nothing -- perfect, or else it must be useless.
Kentucky finished the year ranked 18th, and should've been 15th or 16th. SC and Tennessee were playing better than KY by the end of the season.
As the "returning production" suggests, KY lost its best two defenders but is loaded on returning offense. SC and Tennessee lost very little.
I'm not saying at all that any of these teams will be as good as we'll be. But: a) they may end the season ranked, b) they'll be in a better position to upset us next year, and c) they'll be more capable than the usual nemeses (FL and Auburn) of beating us. Does that make sense to you?
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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
That's funny. @bogarttad was saying that it doesn't matter what KY, FL, SC or TN have returning, because UGA outclassed them in every recruiting cycle that Kirby Smart has taken part in.
While those teams may appear to have more experience, UGA's backups have been practicing against and backing up players that could have been playing in the NFL last year. Looking at it from that angle...which of those teams really has more experience returning?
Like I was saying...2 dimensional thinking vs. 3 dimensional thinking. That's why this metric doesn't reflect reality.
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CandlerPark
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
"With that 'metric', you can have 100% of you offensive production returning from a team that was the LEAST productive in the conference."
True (e.g. Vandy). But no metric's perfect.
I do think it's useful to see that formidable KY and underperforming FL won't lose a tremendous amount, while up-and-comers SC and Tennessee will return loaded (especially with SC adding Rattler).
Even though FL may be in transition, SEC East could be quite a gauntlet for us this fall.
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CandlerPark
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Earl raises some good points, IMO. But I also think you're being selective in the way you're framing who on the offense may be draft picks.
First, a small thing, but you missed D. Washington in saying that Bowers is the only ball-handling offensive player who'd get drafted based on what scouts know about him; in more ways than one, Darnell's hard to overlook!
Second, some in next season's ball handlers simply haven't established their NFL bona fides. yet could very well prove pro-caliber (Mitchell, Milton, McIntosh, Jackson, Blalock, Vandergriff, Arian Smith, Pod and freshmen Robinson, Delp and Stockton).
Third, it doesn't make sense to leave out OL in analyzing the offense. Those guys usually make up more than half of offensive first rounds. And in that area we definitely have lots of potential high draft picks (Jones, Mims, Van Pran and two or three others). Granted, they lack experience.
But I also think you're focusing on the wrong side of the ball. This year, up to five Georgia offensive players may be drafted, but none in Round 1 -- the point being that we're unlikely to see a drop off in offense with all the talent/experience we have, compared to the talent that we're losing.
It's on defense, where we may be hurting in precisely the way you say -- not because we don't have great talent, but because (just as the analysis says) we've lost a lot of production (which in this case was highly correlated to the D's experience).
No matter how good MJ Sherman and Smael Molden et al are, it'd be a miracle for them to come close to the caliber of play we got last year from nine departing draft-quality defenders -- most of whom played together for a couple of years.
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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
One thing that stands out in 2017 and 2021 is the Seniors that chose to return. They didn't just provide production...but, probably more importantly, LEADERSHIP.
In 2017, I remember Dooley making the comment regarding the importance of the draft eligible players, offense and defense, that chose to return and take the Dawgs to the Championship.
The same thing happened in 2021, with Davis, White, Wyatt and Cook leading the way (there were others).
I see a lot of leadership on this 2022 team as well. On offense, it starts with Bennett, Mitchell, Bowers (Fr) and McClendon. And, on defense, Chris Smith, Tykee Smith and Nolan Smith...Smith Cubed (LOL)...will provide plenty of production, but, more importantly, upperclassmen LEADERSHIP. Oh yeah, I left out Ringo (RS-So) and Carter...arguably their most productive returning defenders, but, will they be leaders? I truly hope so.
I'm sure they've already started working on next year...behind the scenes. Much the way they did last year. I can't wait to see the surprise they have in store for us in 2022. Everybody knew UGA's defensive front 7 was gonna be good in 2021. NOBODY, knew they were going to be generational. And, they did it by committee with rotating DLs and LBs. A lot of those guys are coming back.
Go Dawgs...sic em.
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bogarttad
✭✭✭✭ Senior
According to the way this article is stated by MG, he is talking about the amount of production from last year's team returning for the coming season. With that 'metric', you can have 100% of you offensive production returning from a team that was the LEAST productive in the conference the year before. Not a very good comparative metric among all conference teams for future performance I would say.
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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
They've reloaded every year that Smart has been there...so, I'd say they're pretty good. LOL
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BigDawg61
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
The metric is useless. It's a 2 dimensional approach where 3 dimensions are needed.
Case in point...nobody knew what Jones or Burrow was going to be, before their final year. They were not projected 1st rounders and neither was Williams, Metchie, Harris, Wyatt, Dean or any of dozens of 1st/2nd round picks over the years. Those guys became 1st rounders in their final season. Because they had talent and were coached and developed by the best. UGA has all that and some, so, yeah they have some guys standing in line, working, developing and waiting their turn.
I will guarantee you, UGA has a number of players step out of the shadows next year and rate 1st/2nd round discussion, much the same way M. Jones, Burrow, J. Williams and others have done.
Don't get bogged down in draft metrics that are the result of final year production. It tells you nothing about next year...only what happened in years past.
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Hemingwey
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
What? The ‘only’ one who would get drafted? Heck, I think there are several returning players who would be drafted this year, let alone next year… Nolan Smith anyone?
Edit: I add that the strength of this year’s team was performance across the board and a ‘team first’ attitude. Alabama depended on a few stars…and we saw how that turned out for them.
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Vetdawg
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Well…
we have seen how good our coaches can coach, and recruit. It is time to see how good they can “ reload”.
Im most excited to see MJ Sherman on the field this yr and to see Big O do his thing and stay healthy
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GoodtimeDawg
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
I think this is actually a common problem with teams that have a lot of seniors and the amount of NFL draftable players like Georgia has. Alabama and other elite teams have to deal with this often and do well in spite of the odds against them. Part of the reason why is the amount of depth and quality back up players who got experience the season before and now have their turn to shine and because they are as good or better then the previous season's starters, the team doesn't miss a beat.
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bogarttad
✭✭✭✭ Senior
The top 5 on this list of "production returning" tells me how inane this statistic is for any consideration. MG, I can understand that at this lull period in college football, you must tether together all kinds of data to generate interest. I would suggest dropping this stat in the future however.
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MobileDawg
✭✭✭✭ Senior
As long as we keep recruiting and developing, we may not win a natty every year, but we will be in contention which is all this Ole Dawg needs....
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Hemingwey
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Bennett returning is huge and unique, thanks to covid. And he returns with many of his primary targets—Mitchell, Bowers, McConkey, etc. He also gets the benefit of his first off season with starting QB reps. The Dawgs also have some impressive leaders returning on D, Nolan Smith for example. While these various metrics are interesting to examine, I see no reason Georgia can’t make another run at an NC in 2022.
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BubbaBill
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Interesting article and yikes….we face the top 6 teams with returners. The good news is that those 14 great players headed to the NFL were the “iron” that sharpened the young players who will be playing next season. Go Dawgs!!!
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kirkhilles
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
Percentages of starters returning doesn't tell you a whole lot. If coaches have been doing their job, then the 2nd string players of last year should be ready to take on 1st string positions. Bama ALWAYS has a huge number of players head to the NFL and they still are always ranked within the Top 5.
