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Comments

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Worse is disingenuous.

    2,000,000 were going to die.

    If Faucci had told the country back in Feb:

    1). Hardly anyone under the age of 30 will be affected at all

    2) A large segment of the population may already have an immune response from previous coronaviruses

    3). most people who get it won’t experience any symptoms, those under age 50 will likely experience moderate flu like symptoms

    4) only 6% of fatalities from the virus will be in healthy people

    5). Those over 65 and with comorbidities will be hardest hit with a possible death toll of 300,000 over a year’s time.

    If that had been the narrative, then I guarantee the public would have REVOLTED before they allowed the Govt to bring financial ruin to the economy and millions of people. Most elderly people I know do NOT agree with shutting down the country.

    We never closed for H1N1 and they were certain more than 300k were going to die.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,303 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @texdawg it's a mixture. Mostly our poor response. I never thought we'd have this many deaths with all the resources at our disposal. As far as the virus I didn't know it was going to cause so many debilitating chronic issues. Brain, heart, lung, and kidney damage are all things that are being seen in survivors. It's not all about the deaths but even that is high.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,531 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    A few things

    1. They were late in shutting down as a region ( it was a 75%, 50%, 25%, 0% progression if you recall) so the virus had grown too far before the shut-down occurred. This was in part due being blind-sided by having the testing protocol focused on China rather than Europe.
    2. Because they were early as the gateway to/from Europe the level of testing wasn't available at the outset making it difficult to get a handle on the growth. By mid April NY, NJ and Mass had %Pos 41, 49 and 23% indicating that the speed of the spread due to population density in that area had gotten away from them.
    3. Because they were the first to have major spread and have now brought it way down they are basically at the end of the first wave, As I said earlier, it should be expected that those regions/countries that have completed the cycle will have higher deaths than those that are on the up slope. The NE is more akin to Europe in that regard than areas in the south that just recently saw their surge.
    4. Being the first to hit the spike(s) the treatment was not as good as it is today because nobody knew what to do and learned as they were going along.

    Bit repetitive but hopefully you get the drift. We were basically unprepared and as with any surprise attack the forward troops take the heaviest casualties.

    EDIT Sorry should have added that the population density is also more akin to Europe. For example the UK has a population of 68 million but is only half the size of Texas.

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thank you for the response @YaleDawg but this is the question I am most interested in.

    I'm genuinely interested in what you and @Denmen185 say about this.

    I am obviously not an expert.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I agree with your points. I just don’t think they ever contained it. That’s not on their leadership. I just never believed they could contain it. Cuomo himself said 60% percent of their infections came while in quarantine.

    We’ll know soon enough. I’m hopeful it spread so quickly that there won’t be a second wave. The idea that they have somehow “eradicated” the virus is foolhardy.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,531 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    That's like asking "what did you think of the game" halfway through the first quarter (not counting the WLOCP 2017!). It is better than I thought thus far as the spread was way slower across the country than I thought. Having said that I think that will change to worse over the next month or so barring a miracle as the reprieve granted was not taken advantage of.

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thank you. What do you mean by the reprieve granted was not taken advantage of?

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,303 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    So you start with what you know about the virus and as an exercise describe a plan that would completely stop the spread but is impractical and then work backwards to something manageable. We know it spreads via coughing and somewhat through breathing during close contact. It also spreads easier indoors. Symptoms take several days to about a little over a week to show up from the first day of infection. With this info the 100% foolproof way to stop the spread would be to have everyone stay at home at least 6 feet apart and not go anywhere for 2-3 weeks. After those 2-3 weeks those without symptoms are fine to re-enter society and those with symptoms will continue to isolate and go to the hospital if necessary until the virus has run its course. Obviously this won't work. The next step back would be the European model. Only grocery stores and pharmacies open with no travel allowed. Unless you're an essential worker you stay at home. This has worked pretty well in stopping the spread. Given the death rate and chronic issues we are seeing it is necessary to stop the spread.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,531 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Bankwalker Cuomo certainly said that but that was at a time when the community spread had gathered a lot of steam. There wasn't quarantine at the same level as say Spain where children for instance were not allowed out of the house/apartment for 6 weeks. The problem was that if everyone is in quarantine then the vast majority of new cases has to be within the family/household. That statement was I believe while the cases were on the way down.

    FWIW In my subdivision there were a number of cases where during stay-at-home that I saw a few house parties for birthdays, baby showers and graduations. This would not have happened in Europe

  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 2,802 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Can someone tell me how long it takes to get results from a Real Time PCR test for Covid?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,531 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Apart from the improved treatment that has occurred, I don't feel that time gained was utilized well. The new "hotspots" didn't react in a timely manner to prevent them become the "hotspots".

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Certainly a logical answer and I could see how that could possibly work.....

    But in reality.......with a country this size and with a population of 340 - 370 million people....with the amount of homeless and the number of illegal immigrants still capable of crossing the border......and there is a certain part of the population......a huge part of the population......that will not stay quarantined....

    So....as great as those models may seem......is there really any chance they are do able.....?

    And if not..... why not just manage it with more hospital beds and mask-wash-distance?

  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 2,802 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
This discussion has been closed.