fun hypothetical chaos for the playoffs

tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

12-1 Alabama
12-1 Georgia (w/ SEC Championship)
12-1 Michigan (w/ Big Ten Championship)
12-1 Oklahoma (w/ Big 12 Championship)
13-0 Clemson (w/ ACC Championship)
12-0 Notre Dame
that is a possible way to end the season. it won't happen because this is CFB

but lets say it does. you are on the committee and you get to vote. who are your top 4 in that situation and why?

I leave Alabama and Notre Dame out.

Alabama would have the most recent loss and it would be at a neutral site. And their overall SoS is comparable or weaker than the 4 teams I would have in but Alabama would be without a conference championship. If their SoS was drastically higher then that might change something but it isn't

I leave Notre Dame out because it's schedule is not as tough enough to overcome a lack of a conference championship game in the above scenario.

I would have the remaining 4 teams in due to SoS, conference championship (though I do not think it is a prereq it is a nice bonus point when things are equal),

For reference, per Sagarin, the current SoS for the above 6 teams is:

Michigan 18th
UGA 24th
Oklahoma 28th
Alabama 44th
Notre Dame 46th
Clemson 50th

Also, Sagarin's SoS is updated weekly. So it is only based on games played up to this point. As the season continues, and conference championship games are played, SoS for those teams could change. And if so my vote could change. And of course there are other SoS rankings out there. The one I like the most is S&P+ resume. Same disclosure above about changing but this is how it currently looks:

Michigan 23rd
UGA 50th
Notre Dame 53rd
Alabama 57th
Oklahoma 75th
Clemson 88th

But there is a lot of discretion here and not sure any top 4 would be "wrong" as long as it included Clemson. I think they are the only true lock in the above scenario. It is possible any of the other 5 make up the remaining 3 spots. But I am on record that I think Alabama would be outside looking in in the above scenario and I stand by it.

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Comments

  • amjadawgsamjadawgs Posts: 1,063 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I would have to say

    UGA - Winner of the best conference in College Football
    Clemson - Unblemished record
    ND - HUUUUGE revenue for them to be in
    Michigan - B1G team has to get in again at some point and they will have some quality wins

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
    edited November 8

    @amjadawgs said:
    I would have to say

    UGA - Winner of the best conference in College Football
    Clemson - Unblemished record
    ND - HUUUUGE revenue for them to be in
    Michigan - B1G team has to get in again at some point and they will have some quality wins

    As long as UGA does not play Clemson in the first round this would be my ideal scenario based on the realistic teams to make the playoffs

    Ideal seeding to me:

    1 Clemson vs 4 Michigan
    2 Notre Dame vs 3 UGA

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 7,685 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @tfk_fanboy said:
    12-1 Alabama
    12-1 Georgia (w/ SEC Championship)
    12-1 Michigan (w/ Big Ten Championship)
    12-1 Oklahoma (w/ Big 12 Championship)
    13-0 Clemson (w/ ACC Championship)
    12-0 Notre Dame
    that is a possible way to end the season. it won't happen because this is CFB

    but lets say it does. you are on the committee and you get to vote. who are your top 4 in that situation and why?

    I leave Alabama and Notre Dame out.

    Alabama would have the most recent loss and it would be at a neutral site. And their overall SoS is comparable or weaker than the 4 teams I would have in but Alabama would be without a conference championship. If their SoS was drastically higher then that might change something but it isn't

    I leave Notre Dame out because it's schedule is not as tough enough to overcome a lack of a conference championship game in the above scenario.

    I would have the remaining 4 teams in due to SoS, conference championship (though I do not think it is a prereq it is a nice bonus point when things are equal),

    For reference, per Sagarin, the current SoS for the above 6 teams is:

    Michigan 18th
    UGA 24th
    Oklahoma 28th
    Alabama 44th
    Notre Dame 46th
    Clemson 50th

    Also, Sagarin's SoS is updated weekly. So it is only based on games played up to this point. As the season continues, and conference championship games are played, SoS for those teams could change. And if so my vote could change. And of course there are other SoS rankings out there. The one I like the most is S&P+ resume. Same disclosure above about changing but this is how it currently looks:

    Michigan 23rd
    UGA 50th
    Notre Dame 53rd
    Alabama 57th
    Oklahoma 75th
    Clemson 88th

    But there is a lot of discretion here and not sure any top 4 would be "wrong" as long as it included Clemson. I think they are the only true lock in the above scenario. It is possible any of the other 5 make up the remaining 3 spots. But I am on record that I think Alabama would be outside looking in in the above scenario and I stand by it.

    In that situation it should be...

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oklahoma
    Clemson
    If ND wants consideration when it's a close call, they should join a conference. If the tv money from NBC is their priority...f...them.

  • corai3corai3 Posts: 257 ✭✭✭ Junior

    ND beat Michigan...that should matter

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 7,685 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @amjadawgs said:
    I would have to say

    UGA - Winner of the best conference in College Football
    Clemson - Unblemished record
    ND - HUUUUGE revenue for them to be in
    Michigan - B1G team has to get in again at some point and they will have some quality wins

    I'm leaning towards the idea that only teams who have played 13 games at the time of selections be eligible. What happened last year with Bama and what might happen this year with ND or Bama seems unfair to me.

  • Henley79Henley79 Posts: 31 ✭ Freshman
    edited November 8

    That would be a heck of a discussion in that committee room. My top 4 would be:
    1. Clemson
    2. UGA
    3. Michigan
    4. Alabama

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @corai3 said:
    ND beat Michigan...that should matter

    It matters but it is not the end all be all, imo

    unless we expect perfection to be the goal then we have to understand losses happened. in the case of choosing between ND and Michigan for the spot, assuming it comes down to just the two of them, I lean Michigan for the following reasons:
    Won their conference
    Overall tougher SoS
    The loss was first game of the season, on the road, and by one score
    Right now Michigan appears to be playing better football

    I want to judge the entire season, not just one game. It matters, sure. But it is one of many factors to weigh, imo

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @WCDawg said:

    @amjadawgs said:
    I would have to say

    UGA - Winner of the best conference in College Football
    Clemson - Unblemished record
    ND - HUUUUGE revenue for them to be in
    Michigan - B1G team has to get in again at some point and they will have some quality wins

    I'm leaning towards the idea that only teams who have played 13 games at the time of selections be eligible. What happened last year with Bama and what might happen this year with ND or Bama seems unfair to me.

    I think that should be a factor, especially when things are close. It is why I would have ND out in this hypothetical situation. But I think it should not automatically preclude a team from being in the playoffs. It just goes into the Con column but not a total disqualifier for me

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @Henley79 said:
    That would be a heck of a discussion in that committee room. My top 4 would be:
    1. Clemson
    2. UGA
    3. Michigan
    4. Alabama

    in that exact order? I would not love it but I would rather play Michigan in the first round than Alabama or Clemson

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @WCDawg said:

    @tfk_fanboy said:
    12-1 Alabama
    12-1 Georgia (w/ SEC Championship)
    12-1 Michigan (w/ Big Ten Championship)
    12-1 Oklahoma (w/ Big 12 Championship)
    13-0 Clemson (w/ ACC Championship)
    12-0 Notre Dame
    that is a possible way to end the season. it won't happen because this is CFB

    but lets say it does. you are on the committee and you get to vote. who are your top 4 in that situation and why?

    I leave Alabama and Notre Dame out.

    Alabama would have the most recent loss and it would be at a neutral site. And their overall SoS is comparable or weaker than the 4 teams I would have in but Alabama would be without a conference championship. If their SoS was drastically higher then that might change something but it isn't

    I leave Notre Dame out because it's schedule is not as tough enough to overcome a lack of a conference championship game in the above scenario.

    I would have the remaining 4 teams in due to SoS, conference championship (though I do not think it is a prereq it is a nice bonus point when things are equal),

    For reference, per Sagarin, the current SoS for the above 6 teams is:

    Michigan 18th
    UGA 24th
    Oklahoma 28th
    Alabama 44th
    Notre Dame 46th
    Clemson 50th

    Also, Sagarin's SoS is updated weekly. So it is only based on games played up to this point. As the season continues, and conference championship games are played, SoS for those teams could change. And if so my vote could change. And of course there are other SoS rankings out there. The one I like the most is S&P+ resume. Same disclosure above about changing but this is how it currently looks:

    Michigan 23rd
    UGA 50th
    Notre Dame 53rd
    Alabama 57th
    Oklahoma 75th
    Clemson 88th

    But there is a lot of discretion here and not sure any top 4 would be "wrong" as long as it included Clemson. I think they are the only true lock in the above scenario. It is possible any of the other 5 make up the remaining 3 spots. But I am on record that I think Alabama would be outside looking in in the above scenario and I stand by it.

    In that situation it should be...

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oklahoma
    Clemson
    If ND wants consideration when it's a close call, they should join a conference. If the tv money from NBC is their priority...f...them.

    Notre Dame plays more quality/big name teams than most who are in conferences play.

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    This season Notre Dame plays someone from the SEC, Big 10, ACC, and the PAC 12. A total of 10 P5 teams

    It can take an SEC or ACC team playing the conference championship game to his 10 P5 teams. Alabama, for instance, needs the conference championship game to play 10 P5 teams this season.

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Clemson
    ND
    UGA
    Bama

  • Acrum21Acrum21 Posts: 555 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Clemson
    UGA
    ND
    Bama

    We pass ND with a win over bama. 4th spot essentially comes down to bama & michigan. Committee has already proven they value the best team vs conference champs.

  • levanderlevander Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thing.

  • Henley79Henley79 Posts: 31 ✭ Freshman

    @tfk_fanboy said:

    @Henley79 said:
    That would be a heck of a discussion in that committee room. My top 4 would be:
    1. Clemson
    2. UGA
    3. Michigan
    4. Alabama

    in that exact order? I would not love it but I would rather play Michigan in the first round than Alabama or Clemson

    I wanted to put Bama at 3, but my "committee" didn't want to see them play back to back games.

    I like Ric Flair's line of thinking, "if you want to be the man, you got to beat the man". So in this scenario, UGA beats Michigan, Bama beats Clemson, and UGA beats Bama for the NC (and SEC 'ship)! Go Dawgs.

  • Henley79Henley79 Posts: 31 ✭ Freshman
    edited November 8

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    Who is your 4?

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 395 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Clemson
    UGA
    ND
    UCF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

  • levanderlevander Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

  • Henley79Henley79 Posts: 31 ✭ Freshman
    edited November 8

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    First game of the year, yes ND beat Michigan. At this time I think Michigan is the better team. It is all debateable, which is what makes it interesting. Who is your 4?

    Do you think LSU is better than UGA? Is Purdue better than OSU?

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    do they play one game seasons?

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    No way an unbeaten ND gets left out.....long ways yet but I would bet Sparty beats tO$U and Big Blue gets beat by tO$U which leaves Oklahoma on the outside looking in if UGA beats Bama....that leaves the 4 best teams at
    Clemson, ND, UGA and Bama....a lot of what ifs but fun to play the game

  • tfk_fanboytfk_fanboy Posts: 650 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    @dawgnms said:
    No way an unbeaten ND gets left out.....long ways yet but I would bet Sparty beats tO$U and Big Blue gets beat by tO$U which leaves Oklahoma on the outside looking in if UGA beats Bama....that leaves the 4 best teams at
    Clemson, ND, UGA and Bama....a lot of what ifs but fun to play the game

    I am thinking I'll do a new thread like this each week if there is a change, up until the final poll

  • levanderlevander Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    First game of the year, yes ND beat Michigan. At this time I think Michigan is the better team. It is all debateable, which is what makes it interesting. Who is your 4?

    Do you think LSU is better than UGA? Is Purdue better than OSU?

    Wow, so time of the season matters more than who wins a game... You’re not one of those guys who think if they expand it to 8 teams that that would somehow make it more fair do you? If so, do you think it’s kind of weird that these philosophies you have somehow lines up with what would make ESPN the most money?

    I’d put Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma in. The two that are left out are the two that lost a game to one of the four that made it in.

  • Henley79Henley79 Posts: 31 ✭ Freshman

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    First game of the year, yes ND beat Michigan. At this time I think Michigan is the better team. It is all debateable, which is what makes it interesting. Who is your 4?

    Do you think LSU is better than UGA? Is Purdue better than OSU?

    Wow, so time of the season matters more than who wins a game... You’re not one of those guys who think if they expand it to 8 teams that that would somehow make it more fair do you? If so, do you think it’s kind of weird that these philosophies you have somehow lines up with what would make ESPN the most money?

    I’d put Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma in. The two that are left out are the two that lost a game to one of the four that made it in.

    My reasoning is that I think Michigan is better than ND, I understand ND beat Michigan, but don't think that would be the case today. I think 4 is fair, and in no way shape or form is my reasoning based on ESPN and their revenues. It is just my opinion on who I think are the 4 best teams.

  • Dawg19Dawg19 Posts: 236 ✭✭✭ Junior

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    First game of the year, yes ND beat Michigan. At this time I think Michigan is the better team. It is all debateable, which is what makes it interesting. Who is your 4?

    Do you think LSU is better than UGA? Is Purdue better than OSU?

    Wow, so time of the season matters more than who wins a game... You’re not one of those guys who think if they expand it to 8 teams that that would somehow make it more fair do you? If so, do you think it’s kind of weird that these philosophies you have somehow lines up with what would make ESPN the most money?

    I’d put Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma in. The two that are left out are the two that lost a game to one of the four that made it in.

    Having 8 teams would definitely be more fair. I believe that if the season ends the way the OP has it listed, there will be loud calls for an 8 team playoff. I know it has been said on here before but each power 5 winner gets in and then you have 3 wild card teams.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 395 ✭✭✭ Junior

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:

    @Henley79 said:

    @levander said:
    It’s weird you guys want Michigan in over Notre Dame when Notre Dame beat Michigan.

    It was a head to head matchup. You guys have gotten so caught up in arguing strength of schedule, this conference vs that conference, who scored the most points in their wins... you’ve forgotten the most important thin

    I just went with what I think are the best 4 teams.

    If one team beats another, that isn’t the most important factor to you in deciding between those two teams, which is the best?

    If that’s not the most important factor, why play these playoff games at all? It’s not really the determining factor in deciding who the best team is,

    First game of the year, yes ND beat Michigan. At this time I think Michigan is the better team. It is all debateable, which is what makes it interesting. Who is your 4?

    Do you think LSU is better than UGA? Is Purdue better than OSU?

    Wow, so time of the season matters more than who wins a game... You’re not one of those guys who think if they expand it to 8 teams that that would somehow make it more fair do you? If so, do you think it’s kind of weird that these philosophies you have somehow lines up with what would make ESPN the most money?

    I’d put Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma in. The two that are left out are the two that lost a game to one of the four that made it in.

    My reasoning is that I think Michigan is better than ND, I understand ND beat Michigan, but don't think that would be the case today. I think 4 is fair, and in no way shape or form is my reasoning based on ESPN and their revenues. It is just my opinion on who I think are the 4 best teams.

    I might agree with you. How ND shows vs Syracuse will be the final determining factor for me on them. ND has gotten better since they played Michigan with the emergence of Ian Book. Michigan has improved too, though. If Michigan wins out it will be hard to keep them out to be honest. I'd love to see the Dawgs go to battle against the Wolverines in the first round of the playoff.

  • jay_kubzzjay_kubzz Posts: 389 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
    edited November 8

    If it’s a close SEC Championship game Id go
    1. Clemson
    2. Notre Dame
    3. UGA
    4. Alabama

    If not then
    1 Clemson
    2 Notre Dame
    3 UGA
    4 Michigan

    The above is your scenario.

    Losing to Iowa St looks worse for OK than Michigan losing to ND.

    None of this is likely to play out the way we believe though. Here’s what I thinks going to happen.

    ND loses to Syracuse in a close game. Eliminating their chances for the playoffs.

    Michigan and Captain Khaki lose to Ohio State eliminating them from the playoffs.

    West Virginia beats Oklahoma.

    Clemson wins out.

    UGA beats bama in a nail biter.

    Playoffs

    1 Clemson
    2 UGA
    3 West Virginia
    4 Bama

  • benjaminwgreggbenjaminwgregg Posts: 193 ✭✭✭ Junior

    @WCDawg said:

    @amjadawgs said:
    I would have to say

    UGA - Winner of the best conference in College Football
    Clemson - Unblemished record
    ND - HUUUUGE revenue for them to be in
    Michigan - B1G team has to get in again at some point and they will have some quality wins

    I'm leaning towards the idea that only teams who have played 13 games at the time of selections be eligible. What happened last year with Bama and what might happen this year with ND or Bama seems unfair to me.

    This year bama would have 13 games if they lost to us in seccg. I think if you are undefeated, and you beat a playoff team, you should get in the playoff, 13 games or not.

  • moosmoos Posts: 1,163 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Expand to 8. Conference champs and 3 at large bids

  • Lefty13Lefty13 Posts: 375 ✭✭✭ Junior

    I realize that every one looks at strength of schedule and head to head but I tend to go with the "eye" test and consider the other factors. The final factor is choosing the 4 best teams.

    Based on that

    12 - 1 Bama

    12 - 1 Dawgs

    12 - 1 Michigan

    13 - 0 Clemson

    Clemson has played nobody and the ACC is terrible , and once again looked very iffy against Syracuse.

    Notre Dame barely beat Vanderbilt at home and the Northwestern game was closer than the score indicates. They are fortunate that they played Michigan in the first game of the year and not the last.

    Bama loses to us but their quarterback is beaten up, especially after playing Auburn. Should be fine by the playoffs.

    As much as I despise Jim Harbaugh, his team has improved dramatically throughout the season and as long as they beat Ohio State they should be in.

    You have got to be kidding about Oklahoma, barely beat unranked Army,Texas tech, and
    lost to a below average Texas team.

    There's my 2 cents worth.

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