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- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
I like how he put his name and face with it, so I could look him up.
@Bankwalker To give the complete picture I show my post of 7/17 where I explained how I got to the 28 days. It's not like I made it up today. In my post earlier I admit that I got it wrong (was running behind). It's either that or Florida is running further behind in reporting deaths than previously. The key in modelling something like this is to recognize your errors and adjust accordingly. What is your estimate for the end of the month and separately for August?
BTW I am not expecting an answer based on previous attacks where you won't directly answer questions.
Front Line Hero speaks the truth. Sickness and death is not acceptable from a virus that could have been contained at it's source.
Give me a bit. Just got home and cooking dinner. Not sure what you mean because I do NOT avoid questions. Ask again. Might be tomorrow.
Edit: Just baked a potato and don’t have any sour cream. This is BAD.
One problem with his ideologically biased opinion : The state had 78 people die yesterday. The virus has spread equally across the entire state. The percentage cases in every county are nearly equal to the percentage of the states population in every county. You can actually confirm this on the Georgia covid site. So what this means is that of the 78 people who were reported dead yesterday, approximately 14 were in Dekalb or Fulton County. Yeah, sure there is a “lag” but the cases have held steady.
Anyone know how many funeral homes are in Fulton and Dekalb? More than 14 and they ALL stay busy every day of the year.
Numberwise yesterday was bad worldwide. Today looks worse. Increasing deaths and cases.
I agree. There are local blogs in my area where people are saying we need to lockdown again completely no going anywhere till this dies out. Some of them work from home and feel like they can lockdown forever. I don't think they realize that the Company they work for relies on others buying goods etc. and continued lockdowns will affect all. Even local utility companies will have issues when people can't pay bills. No industry is immune.
I don't have the age group distribution of cases to make that prediction for Florida. I was previously requesting that from you for that purpose, but was only getting the number of cases above 55+. Recall that you posted those for me.
I knew your numbers were going to be off back when you posted them on the 14th because you are using too broad of a CFR across all age groups for a new case grouping that has been heavily weighted under 40 years old. The average age of the early group was 65 vs the current wave that has been around 38-40.
On that date, the number of new cases dating back to June 23 was 179,000, of which 43,000 were above age 55. You said that meant 7500 (4.1% CFR) should be expected to die, but you thought the number would be closer to 4500 for the reasons you listed. I was doing rough calculations in my head using the known CFR for similar age groups in Georgia, and had a number around 2300 without being able to discount for the number of cases between age 55-70. Georgia reports different age groups (18-29, 30-39, 40-49, etc) than Florida (25-34, 35-44, 45-54, etc) so it wasn't a direct comparison. We all know the case fatality rate drops substantially as patients get younger, and that drop really gets noticeable in Georgia at age 70, and again at age 50, and very sharply at each 10 year group down to age 18. Below that there is little testing being done.
Another reason for a smaller CFR is that assisted care homes are doing a much better job of protecting those facilities. As many as half of the deaths in areas have been from AC facilities. Those places are low hanging fruit orchards for this disease.
My method would be to calculate each age group individually based on the known CFR for that group, and then sum those products.
Consider this as reported by Fox 5
x 5 just confirmed, from a physician over several major hospitals in Atlanta, that the hospitalizations being recorded ARE NOT Covid. A small percent is covid. Dr. Sinyard, a well known Cardiologist in Athens states the beds n Athens are full due to elective surgeries postponed in March -May are now being performed at record numbers, accidents and general illnesses NOT COVID are filling the beds to near capacity. Only 214 hospitalizations in Georgia...the WHOLE STATE, are Covid. Major news networks like CNN, NBC, CBS and ABC tell you hospitals are full leading you to believe it is Covid. Deaths have greatly declined over the past weeks. Honest Drs are getting fed up. Its unraveling, yall.
Here a link to story
I thought the lockdown was so the hospitals could get prepared and flatten the curve and make this thing come in waves. Is he saying we should have locked down forever? What is the new narrative with a lockdown? Did the hospitals not take time to get prepared? Are we suppose to lockdown till a vaccine is ready and then hope people get the vaccine? I am lost now on what we need to do? I see masks everywhere in my area now, is that all we needed so now after the lag the numbers will drop?
The infections haven't increased in the younger group IMO. It was always there. Early on on hospitalized were test along with at risk which were 65+. If you only test 65+ people it is to be expevted that Cases would be almost exclusively in that age range. As testing has increased it has widened to anyone with symptoms so now includes younger people previously unable to get tested. Increased testing of NEW people will result in lower Positive rates, increased positives and lower CFR as more less severe cases are included.
I posted data on age case trends yesterday
This Dr. is the chief medical officer for Athens Regional and was only talking about the two hospitals in Athens. Not all the major hospitals in Atlanta. As for only 200 hospitalizations for the entire state there were 447 new ones reported by GDH yesterday. If you google "fox 5 dr. Sinyard" you won't find any reporting from fox 5 but you will find the Facebook post you copied and pasted here.
Fake News
@Bankwalker Here is the FL age breakout for cases, hosp, and deaths from yesterday: