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- 3/17/19 UPDATE -- We've updated the permissions for our "Football" and "Commit to the G" recruiting message boards. We aim to be the best free board out there and that has not changed. We do now ask that all of you good people register as a member of our forum in order to see the sugar that is falling from our skies, so to speak.
COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Interesting points by all. I think one of the key questions right now is whether there is a lower HIT at work. Sweden sure makes a case for a low HIT and burnout, regardless of mitigation strategies. Most of the countries that have been hit hard have burned out fairly quickly. The countries that mitigated very hard are still subject to the case spike as soon as they open it back up. IMHO, Florida is the place to watch. Florida is just a bit more populous than NY, so it makes a nice comparison. FL has an older population than NY, so I don't think anyone can argue against a reduced death rate in summer versus winter. If NY hit burnout at about 400K cases, then FL should be peaking in the next couple of weeks and we should start going down in August. There are a lot of variables, though, and as I've said, I believe we may have different HITs for different times of the year--exactly the same as with cold and flu season. If Florida keeps growing at 40%, then we can't argue for a lower HIT, and we can argue for a lockdown. I am cautiously optimistic that we will see cases going down soon, but I still have an open mind about what is really happening.
Those are great questions, but they will take a lot of time to answer if they are ever answered. Anecdotally, my wife knows one of the passengers who tested positive on that early cruise ship off of Japan. She was in her 70's and completely asymptomatic, as in she would never have suspected illness if they hadn't tested her. Her husband was with her in the same cabin (until the test) and he never tested positive. So, is it that asymptomatics are less contagious, that some people have immunity and will never test positive, or that asymptomatics have a different strain? I would lean toward two and then maybe one, but that is a WAG.
My take...
There are NEVER apples to apples comparisons, whether between countries, states, counties...heck even between my family and my next door neighbors. Decisions must be made on principle. Americans thrive on the principle of Individual Freedom, the ability to make decisions we determine best for ourselves and our families. Central Planning has proven throughout history to be ineffective. Yet here we are, expecting Central Planning to regulate a virus away. No matter the situation at hand, central planners cannot possibly take into consideration the lives AND livelihoods of all individuals subject to such planning. Are there extreme circumstances where Emergency Powers MUST be activated? Sure, such as war. Such as a "war" on an "invisible enemy"? I think not.
What I believe will be learned, is the implementation of Emergency Powers must be done extremely carefully and rarely. Should ANY other course of action be available, it should be the goal to steer away from awarding Emergency Powers to Central Planners. When Emergency Powers are determined the only option, it should be done so as a result of a thorough debate, with expert representation from all walks of life subject to living under such powers, and with the understanding being to shed these powers at first opportunity to pursue a new course of action.
Florida update - Tested 47,644 NEW people yesterday of which 9,440 (19.8%) tested positive. Hospitalizations were 517 which likely includes some weekend catch-up but still high giving a 7 day average of 414 a new record. Deaths at 134 is in line with last Tuesday but likely has less catch-up than last week. The total for the last 7 days was 797 giving a 7 day average of 114 equaling yesterday's record high.
People are going to take this wrong and I absolutely do not mean to be critical of anyone..
I completely agree with your argument......but many/most/some won't see it.....because it comes from the point of view of an entrepreneur or small business owner.
I'm not suggesting in any way that people who don't own their own business ......don't work as hard.....of course many of them do.
But business owners work differently and think differently......because there is no security blanket.
And I believe that our country was founded on an entrepreneurial spirit.
So many Americans are reliant on big brother (govt) or their employer. Again.....not suggesting that is wrong (as long as they are relying on their employer).....but it is different.
Total shutdowns are easier for many.....they either have that security blanket or they at least have the ability to work from home.
If it were announced that school teachers and coaches wouldn't be paid until kids are on campus......how quickly would schools open?
Most....if not all....of the politicians making decisions about shutting down.....are doing so from a position of security.
@Bum....many on here know exactly where you are coming from......others simply don't see things the same way.....and that is unfortunate
Day 3 of really feeling symptoms. Fever has gone down from this morning from 100.2 to 99.7. Feel about 10% better but symptoms have now changed to extreme sensitivity in the eye region. Hurts to look outside without sunglasses. Still have body aches but a little less. More headache today but appetite seems to be picking up again.
Would you compare the feeling to the flu? Better/worse or about the same.
Glad to hear you may be turning the corner...hoping it gets better quickly.
I want to know what happened to the heat and humidity was going to kill this thing theory? It's freaking 98 degrees in NE Georgia.
Yeah, AZ is having an all time heat blast and they are spiking, while FL is seeing typical high 70s dew points and we are getting a big spike. I think the heat and humidity theory is in serious trouble. On a different note, I thought Yale was joking around with the cucumber vs. CV 19 graph, but I saw a discussion about the study today. It was from Europe. I guess they think cucumbers are good and cabbage is even better. So, all the guys who have it on this thread, get going on the cabbage and cucumbers, and go out on the back porch and get a nice tan in your easy chair with a quart sized hydration bottle.
Similar, I’ve definitely felt worse before but it’s not fun. My understanding is that if you don’t have it bad, like hospitalization bad then it’s usually about 5-6 days of feeling bad followed by another 5-6 days of mild lingering symptoms. Once the fever goes away I think I’ll be fine and will want to continue exercising.
The lockdowns have been most effective in areas of China. Amazingly there, some positive cases didn't even exist 24 hours later.
So, if we are going to judge effectiveness of mitigation on lack of transmission only, I say we go with their model. We can have this thing under control in no time. Because our #1 goal should always be control.
It's always entertaining to see overarching governmental opinions seep into our comments! Someone should write a book...
If you want talk about gov overreach, make a new thread where everyone can talk about lockdowns and the kidnappings in Portland.
At least everyone seems to agree on that! 🤣
Plenty of theories on how heat and sunshine may be responsible for the lower death rates. I’m a believer. Maybe I should knock on wood or shouldn’t tempt fate, but I feel the heat and sunshine are why @Denmen185 ’s predictions for July deaths in Florida are going to be well short of the mark. Deaths need to almost double in Florida over the next 10 days to reach his predictions, and that was even after he cut the known case fatality rate nearly in half for his model, over what the previous numbers would have predicted.
"This thread is mostly for hearing from those personally affected by COVID-19 and getting updates to see how members of Dawgnation are doing."
This is rule #1 in your original post. In fact its the reason I decided to engage in this thread. Does economic impact of COVID on a business I own not fit this criteria?