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Ole Miss expert shares formula for upset, how Rebels have improved
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Ole Miss expert shares formula for upset, how Rebels have improved
ATHENS — Ole Miss has been here before facing a more talented team on the road with a hostile crow on hand.
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The key to these games is to get ahead and play from the lead and not let them believe they can win. Untilwe kicked that last field goal Saturday, ELi thought they were going to win the game, as he should of. I admired him for not dragging the game out and bascially conceded.
We simply have to be more productive on offense early on. We need to attack them through the air. THere hasn't been any team that we have played where we just lined up on offense and smashed them in the mouth with the run and got more than 2-3 yards consistently. As our passing attack goes, so goes our running game.
It's really not that we don't pass it much, we do. It's the sequencing that get's my gall up. I have gone back and looked at the play by play in several games and at least 80% of the time when we get a first down by the pass, Bobo calls a run play up the gut thevery next play. And a majority of the time, he'll call a run play on 2nd down. That would be all well and good if we could move the other team off the line with our O-line, and pickup 4,5,6 yards on 1st down but that is rarely the case. So many times we have moved the chains well down the field via the pass only to stall out because we suddenly went into conservativw mode in play calling and we got into a 3rd and long and couldn't convert.
In the Auburn game for example we ran the ball 18 times in the first half and threw it 11 times. We scored 10 point and it was close at the half.
In the 2nd half we reversed the splits. We threw it 18 times and ran it 10 times except for the victory formation stuff. We scored 17 points.
THere are other examples of similar splits.
Mike - great start to a story, but for some reason I was ready to keep reading and poof you ended it.
if Carson throws 35 times we will have a big day. First let’s see how well their run defense holds up
if Dawgs win, 325 passing, 200 rushing. & special teams will be A++
Our key to success will be keeping pace with the quick play of the Rebel's offense. That includes effective communication and lining up on defense in the right spot. We'll need a spy on Dart as he is very capable of running for a big gain. Harris will be a handful for the secondary and Judkins can pound the ball. Red Zone defense will need to bend but not break. I expect Kiffin to be aggressive and go for it on 4th down most of the night. We should be able to run on their defense, and I expect bigger gains for both Edwards and Milton Saturday night than we had against Mizzou. This will be key to whether or not we can run away with this game. If we can't get our running game going effectively then all bets are off and this will be a much closer contest. Then turnovers might even decide the outcome.
I really think Kirby is a much better coach than Kiffin. We've got better talent, and we are playing at home. All advantages for the Dawgs.
If we play like we are capable then Dawgs 45-28
“Alabama beat the Rebels that September night in Tuscaloosa earlier this season, 24-10, but it was not exactly the same Ole Miss team”.
OK while that’s true, the Bama team Then was not the same as Now either. Though if pains me deeply to have to give Bama credit, They To have improved. So I believe if Bama played Ole Miss this Sat. they ( Bama) would Still beat Ole Miss by at least the same 14 points. All one need do is look at the Bama vs LSU game.
So in summary as a Dawgs fan I’m not intimidated by a “ improved” Ole Miss team as our Dawgs, Even With Injurues, have Also Improved !! Go Dawgs !!
Fully Agree Bro. !! Just add in something You and every Dawgs fan already knows. And that is we need the O Line to play HUGE !! Busting holes open for our RBs. Protecting Beck and giving him a clean pocket.
IF our O Line can bust open big holes for Edwards, Milton, Bell, and now probably R. Robinson (in doses on Robinson), it could be a Great night for Dawgs fans !!
Ole Miss can’t score if the Dawgs dominate TOP and keep them off the field. Plus it’ll gas the Ole Miss Defense even quicker !! Go Dawgs !!
@Brooksie
Let's see how well OUR run defense holds up. We got gashed by a pretty good running back last week. Now we're going against the best RB we'll probably face all season
With all due respect I’m not sure the Auburn game is a good example to cite. Especially citing the first half of the game.
I mean brand new ( as starter) QB in his first Big road game. I can easily imagine Allot of OCs calling run plays more so, to let their New QB settle in. Also in a large part of the first half of the season we had Cash & Mews at RB ( lost Robinson pretty early he could have helped) though I Much appreciate their contributions and respect them Both, their not exactly battering rams.
Also lost Mims and had to transition to Truss who has done an admirable job, but still had to adjust to losing Mims. My point ?? You know as well as I do ( that’s a compliment Not sarcasm) in the SEC you have to at least Try to run the ball some. The run compliments the pass compliments the run, etc. etc.
The problem has been up until VERY recently we haven’t had a pretty much Fully healthy Edwards & Milton at the Same time. And again in the SEC you can’t afford to just abandon the run. Bama showed what a good Defense can do against a pass happy team. Dawgs Defense even with injuries is just as good.
Losing “The Robinsons” hurt the Dawgs BAD !! First Branson before the season even started as that kid had Huge potential !! Then R. Robinson who Also showed Huge potential.early on. Bell has done a Great job supplementing. But he’s more of a Catch The Ball out of the backfield guy. He Can move the pile some, but not like Edwards, Milton, and R. Robinson. Those three are battering ram pile movers.
Lastly up until very recently our O Line has been very inconsistent. I think when you look at All these factors you can see a Whole of why our run game has been so inconsistent. So you might ask well Why run it very much at all then ? Because As You Know, Beck is Still a work in progress, he’s doing Great, but Still learning. You don’t want the rival Defense to have absolutely No respect for our run threat, and just line up and come head hunting Beck on blitzes nearly every play.
I know, I know the other way is to throw deep passes. Well now that McConkey is back and seemingly fully healthy we might well see More of those deep passes. I’m all for it ! I think Lovett and Rosemy-JackSaint have now upped their level of play to help in that regard. RaRa is getting there. But he’s not quite there yet.
Robinson I think will make mild contributions in this game running the ball. But watch out for him to be a Bigger contributor in Knoxville !! Lastly wouldn’t it be Cool As A Cucumber to have Bowers back for the Vols ?? I think he’ll be limited but I have a feeling he Will be back for that game.
ALL this stuff is just my humble opinions. Heck I don’t know anything about fooze ball Lol !! Go Dawgs !! P.S. I left you a note on that other thread. NO !! I was Not talking about You !! I always appreciate and respect your comments !!
Now we're going against the best RB we'll probably face all seasonSeems like we've heard that before.
However, your point is correct. We've got to stop the run.
Our overall defense against Mizzou was actually quite impressive, but it didn't look so good in real time as it looks watching the replay of the game.
It will be interesting to see how Missouri does this weekend. I don't expect them to implode following their great game against the Dawgs last Saturday. I suspect they would beat Ole Miss.
We have plenty of things to fix by Saturday night if we're to win, but I'm sure Kirby & Company know as much as can be known about how to accomplish the tasks.
Go, Dawgs!
Yep. Would’ve been nice to have seen a Mizzou vs Ole Miss game Before our Dawgs played Mizzou. I’m in agreement with you, I have a feeling in my very ample gut that Mizzou would actually beat Ole Miss in a head to head contest.
No I don’t have any factual evidence to support my claim, it’s all just a feeling. I have to tip my hat to Coach Eli and his Tigers though, they played Very tough !! They played with a fire in the gut type of play that I’m compelled to admire even if it’s a rival. Well even if it’s Some rivals, there are rivals I Can’t admire Any time, like UF, Auburn, TN, Bama, GT, etc. etc. etc. 😀 Go Dawgs !!
I Do see Improvement with our Dawgs though. O Line seems to be getting better in slight increments at Both pass pro and opening holes for the RBs. Slightly better though we need them to get Significantly better and Soon.
It’s good to have Both Milton & Edwards out there, Milton looks about as healthy as he can be. I’m Believing that getting R. Robinson will start to pay off by Knoxville. As he’s just getting back his impact if any will be mild vs Ole Miss. Go back before he got injured though and look at his work, this kid has Huge potential !!
Beck getting more and more comfortable. Getting a Healthy McConkey back was and Is Huge. Defensive Front looks like their getting a little better at pass rush. Younger guys stepping up in the Defense. I think we All know that PI on Humphrey was total bogus BS !! He didn’t even touch the Mizzou guy. Young Everette has Got to work harder in practice. I Know he’s playing his heart out, he’s trying really hard, but he got smoked pretty bad vs Mizzou.
Woodring made his career long of wasn’t it 48 yarder ?? He’s settled in very nicely. Sooner or later the rivals are gonna miss and Mews is gonna take one to the house on KRs he’s been one tackle away a couple of times, and Has got us out to the 35 several times.
Edwards is a Hoss !! Plain and simple !! When he’s healthy Milton is a Hoss to, but you can’t help but be concerned about his durability.
My fellow Dawgs fans I tell Y’all I Believe that Allot of teams would have folded and buckled under by now when you consider the sheer number of injuries This team has had !! Really what they’ve managed to do with So much New and So many injuries is quite remarkable !!
Win or Lose though I Much prefer Win, Dawgs fans have every right to be exceedingly Proud of this 2023 Dawgs Team. It has suffered The Most Injuries in a single season of Kirby’s tenure Yet still prevailed !! New OC. New starting QB. Defense riddled with New. Much the same on Offense.
Yet 9-0 !! There are quite a few teams, even SEC teams that would be sitting at 6-3 right now under the same conditions. Impressive !! Very Impressive !! Go Dawgs !!
No doubt about it, this will be a very tough test for the DAWGS especially without JDJ. His experience and knowledge will be missed with this one and the UT game as well. Both of those are pretty well-rounded teams that have strong running games. The DAWGs really need to reduce/eliminate the big splash plays. That is where Ole Miss really moves to tempo after a big play and catches teams out of position. They usually come with a big run by Judkins on those and most teams are out of position so it makes him even better with that scenario.
DAWGs need to control the tempo as much as possible and have long and productive offensive drives. 1 or 2 key stops will likely be the difference.
Oh wow. A "hostile crow"?
Those are the worst. By far! Average crow can just be an butthole. But if you ask any other bird, those crows are completely intolerable.
“They will tell you that learned a lot from the Alabama game in September when it was really loud and they struggled,”
@MikeGriffith
I’m not sure they learned enough that night in Tuscaloosa getting beat by two touchdowns! Their formula for an upset better include more than that. I guess we’ll know soon enough if that defense is going to hold up against Beck and company.
GO DAWGS!