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Justus Terry flip to USC only further validates Kirby Smart’s stance on NIL and recruiting

SystemSystem Posts: 7,416 admin
edited March 25 in Article commenting
imageJustus Terry flip to USC only further validates Kirby Smart’s stance on NIL and recruiting

ATHENS — After a day like Sunday on the recruiting trail, you can understand why Kirby Smart vented about the frustrations he has when it comes to recruiting, NIL and development.

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Comments

  • GoodOlDawgGoodOlDawg Posts: 444 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    "It’s fair to point out as well that you can have a competitive program with a strong development track record, as Georgia does. And if those players still elect to play elsewhere, there’s not exactly a whole lot that can be done."

    I believe there are a couple of different possibilities that would explain this action. One is that these 17 year old guys are getting mislead by bad advisors or no advisors at all. This NIL money can be incredibly attractive to someone who hasn't ever had very much (this is a general statement because I am not aware of Mr. Terry or Mr. Gibson's financial situation). Anyone at this age making this kind of decision would benefit from a trusted advisor who can explain the long term benefits in an objective way.

    The second possibility is that these young men are clever enough to use the "commitment flip" to sweeten the pot with the original program. There doesn't seem to be any rules that govern this action, so it is plausible that a "commit" could be completely bluffing with this "flip" in order to make the original/primary target (in this case UGA) come back to the negotiating table with a better NIL deal.

    GO DAWGS!

  • ftworthdawgftworthdawg Posts: 789 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    the Terry flip stings a lot, and it's another reminder of how terribly hard it is to hold on to an early commitment. Best wishes to him.

  • DawgTattooDawgTattoo Posts: 408 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    I really don't get it. You have NIL money and you have development. We all know that UGA would do a far better job at development than USC can. That's just a fact. As for NIL money, just how much more can Terry get with USC than at UGA? It couldn't be that much more. Certainly not enough to outweigh the development factor. So there must be another element to Terry's decision (and to those other young men who flip). Maybe it's the excitement of being in Los Angeles versus Athens. Any ideas?

  • GtheGreekGtheGreek Posts: 916 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It's all about maturity.....player like Alexander, Lewis, Gibson and Terry are "Culture Killers".......Georgia's success is predicated on TEAM, personal commitment to elite development, personal commitment to placing your TEAM Mates/University above your on, and a personal commitment to WIN not only every game but every practice, and every off season.....I suspect the new NFL coaches hired to revitalize USC's D will meet much frustration as they attempt to mold and heard these Hollywood Hot Cats!

    There will never be a "Me First" DGD and that's what wins Champioships!

  • BrooksieBrooksie Posts: 455 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
    edited March 25

    The second possibility is that these young men are clever enough to use the "commitment flip" to sweeten the pot with the original program. There doesn't seem to be any rules that govern this action, so it is plausible that a "commit" could be completely bluffing with this "flip" in order to make the original/primary target (in this case UGA) come back to the negotiating table with a better NIL deal.

    @GoodOlDawg I agree that this is a very good, albeit poor tactic that is probably in play .. is someone who does this of the character to play for Kirby

    its interesting that when we are interviewing for a job, the company holds the value until the offer is in writing. Then we negotiate for more. BUT. The “range” is usually still there. With NIL. These 17 year olds appear to hold too much leverage. I would like to see NIL ranges for each star rating- with overlap to account for the various rating organizations.

  • MontanaDawgMontanaDawg Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 25

    Guys, I don't think there is one right answer to the question of why some of these guys flip as they do. The reasons are different for every player. But remember, 95% of college football players are not going pro, so the very enticing small window of opportunity to receive compensation from NIL or Collectives certainly plays into their decisions (especially considering the family background of many of these players). And you can't blame them for chasing whatever monies they can get now. So whether the reason(s) is money, recognition, ego, development, the program, or simply a guy following the advice of others, you're going to have more guys turning over and rosters changing now and going forward than ever before. The programs that can manage this the most productively will be the winners in the end. So maybe Kirby's strong belief in development first and foremost will start to change. In fact, I think it may have to.

  • reddawg1reddawg1 Posts: 3,606 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • JimBobJimBob Posts: 29 ✭✭ Sophomore

    I am of the opinion that if you want to play at UGA you will; if not, UGA is better without you. Wish you well where ever you go. A great number of these players will never graduate and then where are they?

  • E_RocE_Roc Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    "But remember, 95% of college football players are not going pro, so the very enticing small window of opportunity to receive compensation from NIL or Collectives certainly plays into their decisions"

    That's also an argument for choosing the program that will maximize your chances of getting to the NFL. Especially for a player of Terry's baseline talent level, where development or lack thereof can make a huge difference in draft stock.

  • 99nout99nout Posts: 216 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Brandon Adams throwing shade. Love it.

    Riley is a con artist and charlatan. USC is starting to realize it. Their fans already have.

  • Tom_BomadilTom_Bomadil Posts: 68 ✭✭✭ Junior

    College football has become a sorry state of affairs. One thing that is NEVER mentioned is a six figure education for the 95 percent of players who will not enter the NFL. An education, and it's cost, is not even in the dialog. Money, money, money. The thing is, when you open that Pandora's box, it awakens greed in a way that never would have been an issue otherwise. Sure, there has been cheating through the years, players have been paid, but legitimizing it and encouraging it is another matter. Why isn't an education enough?

  • MontanaDawgMontanaDawg Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @E_Roc...Absolutely, for those 5% of guys who are elite enough to take it to the NFL. BUT, development will only go so far if you aren't a starting player who sees potential playing time ticking away. Do you hang with a program where you are developing & getting better but still the backup or move on to another program where you could be starting? Players can always get better at whichever program they play at. Does it have to be one of the elite programs? Probably not. That depends on the program, the coaches, and the position, and what your ultimate goal is as a player. If you are hoping to get drafted then you've got to have enough playing time under your belt for the NFL scouts to pay attention to you. So, yes, it goes both ways. I just think that development at one particular school might not be as important in this new age of college football when guys need and want to see playing time.

  • JBMDawg46JBMDawg46 Posts: 354 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    I’m with Brandon. He has a good take on the problem. Also agree that these young men often are getting poor advice or no advice. I mean a young man from Manchester, GA, going to play defense at USC. Not smart. Very shirt-sighted. Playing for your home state team brings a lifetime of benefits after one’s playing days are over.

  • gafanlivinginalgafanlivinginal Posts: 63 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Those guys will have a lot of fun being run over by the opposing players at Oregon and Ohio State whose coaches actually play defense.

  • E_RocE_Roc Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 25

    I'm not sure what to say about playing time. It hasn't been hurting Georgia's defensive players in the draft. All signs are pointing to NIL here and I guess the point I was trying to make is that if that's what's motivating this decision, then the player is probably acting on some poor guidance. (I know, easy for me to say, but it's true.)

    Which brings me to the other point I was trying to make about Terry in particular. Starting out as a high 5 star, he has a very clear chance of making it to the NFL. But he still has to get there. Whatever the scenario, when starting from an advantageous position, the wise move is to make decisions and take action with the purpose of maximizing that advantage. Smart and Scott's record of sending DL to the league, with a strong possibility of going high in the draft, speaks for itself. The same cannot be said of Riley and Henderson. And the difference between going in the first round and going in, say, the third, is a lot bigger than any difference in NIL offerings.

    Ultimately this is all academic. Guys are going to decide what they decide, and that's fine. But since we have the luxury of being able to look at it without the pressure of actually having to make a decision, I don't see much disputing that going to Georgia would be the better move for a player like Terry. It's not like he wouldn't still be getting paid while he's here.

  • Bill71Bill71 Posts: 22 ✭✭ Sophomore

    NIL and unlimited transfers are the worst thing’s to allow in college football……ever! Who’s the genius that even allowed it to happen? JS! Over!

  • DallasDawgDallasDawg Posts: 1,266 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    There is really no need in blaming the kids. Lot's of people, lot's of people, would take a job that pays them more money even if the company they were going to might not be considered as good overall as the company they're leaving. The money always makes people think a situation is better than it is, or that they can make a bad or mediocre situation better. It's just human nature. I think for us at UGA, our coach has drawn a line in the sand somewhere when it comes to NIL. I don't know what that line is, but it is clear to me that there are kids out there who have asked us to give them more money and Kirby has just refused. He has made it clear publicly, as recently as last week, that he thinks the bulk of NIL funds should go to players who are ALREADY ON THE TEAM, not an incoming freshman, regardless of their stars. So that's why these sorts of flips are happening, and will continue to happen, unless Kirby changes his philosophy. And as long as he can be successful (which means competing for, but not necessarily winning, conference and national championships), I don't think he will change his philosophy. Now, if he were to start losing then yeah, maybe that NIL line moves a little bit because we all know UGA can afford these guys. The question is, do they want to? And so far, in most instances, the answer has been no. My only issue with these youngsters, if I had one, is that they lie when they say it's not about the money. Yes it is, because while I can believe that three of the top eight players in Georgia might decide not to attend UGA, I highly doubt those three would ALL wind up at the University of Southern California without heavy NIL enticements. Go Dawgs!

  • MontanaDawgMontanaDawg Posts: 1,843 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 25

    @E_Roc ...the flip of Terry might be NIL related...but it might not. Lincoln Riley hired defensive line coach Eric Henderson away from the Los Angeles Rams in part to boost the program’s recruiting at the position. But, he's an elite coach as well. Henderson was a a key figure for the Rams' during his time in L.A., helping the team to a Super Bowl win in 2021, and helping create a solid unit around future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald. This past season, he helped mold rookie defensive tackle Kobie Turner into a defensive rookie of the year candidate. Meanwhile, fellow rookie Byron Young also had a breakout season rushing the passer, with the two combining for 17 sacks. 

    This is the 2nd 5-star 2025 recruit that USC has stolen from the Dawgs. Terry joins quarterback Julian “Ju Ju” Lewis, the No. 9 overall player in the class who plays at Carrollton High School. USC is VERY actively recruiting the State of Georgia big time just as we have been going after players in southern Cal.

    Are these (2) USC "steals" related? Dunno. Obviously, one guy is DL and one is QB so different coaches. Riley is one great QB development coach, so in both cases you have very strong coaches that could be the reasons for the flips. It may not have anything to do with NIL.

  • E_RocE_Roc Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 25

    I understand Henderson has made a name for himself. But the fact remains that he hasn't done at the college level what Scott* has proven he can do. And there's a pretty easy case to be made for choosing proven results over potential, however alluring the latter may be. Let me put it this way. Let's say Henderson is the real deal as a college coach. What's the ceiling for a 5 star defensive lineman playing for him? Top 10 pick? Number 1 overall? Scott has already proven he can get his elite players there. There's no advantage in going to play for Henderson over Scott, but there might be a advantage to playing for Scott over Henderson. To say nothing of the clout that comes, more generally, with being a defensive player at UGA.

    But bigger picture, you may be right. Maybe the flip, if it sticks, is more about wanting to try out the LA lifestyle than NIL. And if that's the case, then there's not much to be done about it. But I still don't see the argument that it would be about coaching. Oh and I don't see what relevance Lewis has in the Terry discussion. Yeah, USC recruits Georgia. So does everyone else. And a QB going to play for Riley makes a lot more sense than a DL doing it.

    *Every reference to Scott should be read as also referring to Smart

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