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CBS Sports analyst makes bold prediction for Georgia running back Trevor Etienne
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CBS Sports analyst makes bold prediction for Georgia running back Trevor Etienne
Georgia’s offseason addition of running back Trevor Etienne was seen as a major move.
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I don’t agree with his assessment. Based on past years, I believe the carries will be divided among the backs to reduce wear and tear and keep their legs fresh.
“Trevor Etienne will lead the nation in rushing behind one of the five best offensive lines in the country with an increased number of carries as a workhorse back,” Johnson said as part of an SEC predictions column. “Not even Oklahoma State star Ollie Gordon II will best UGA’s RB1.”
I find this insanely unlikely.
Under Kirby Smart, no RB has averaged more than 15 carries per game over a season; even in 2017 when Chubb had 1300 yards rushing, he averaged less than 15 carries per game. Etienne averaged ~11 carries per game last year; I'd expect him to average about the same, maybe one or two more, in 2024. UGA's RB room is too deep, and Smart's practice of spreading out the workload too ingrained, for us to see any meaningful increase in the number of carries he receives. Etienne will simply not get enough touches to get to the 1700+ yards rushing he'd need to lead the nation.
Now, if you include potentially 4 post-season games into the stats, maybe, but still unlikely. But he won't lead the NCAA in the regular season simply because he won't get the 20-odd carries per game that the leading rushers typically get (in 2023, Ollie Gordon had 20 per game, Kimani Vidal had 21 per game, and Cody Schrader had 21 per game in 2023; those were the 3 leading rushers). Twelve carries per game (a likely work load for Etienne) over 16 games (regular season, SECCG, and 3 rounds in playoff after bye) is fewer carries than 20 per game over 13 games (regular season plus bowl).
Rightly summarized. Kirby doesn't believe in a "workhorse" RB. There won't be 20-30 carries for any RB. It's why he's always worried about keeping players fresh as he can.
Yeah, I agree with the the previous comments. Etienne will not get even close to the number of carries needed to lead the nation in rushing. It’s just to important to have your best players in the best shape possible for the Playoff. The number of carries needed to lead the nation will be a wearing season for a RB.
Conner—you've been hanging around Mike Griffith too long with that "massive" in the second sentence. I agree—although I'm not doubting his ability, Etienne won't get the touches to become a dominant fourth quarter back like Herschel or Todd Gurley.
these writers really haven’t watched Georgia football. Assuming 15 carries per game and 4.5 YPC thats 1000 yard over 16 games. He would have to average higher than 5YPC and have 20+ touches per game to even get close. He might hit 1300 all purpose yards. But that’s a stretch.
I'm thinking 1200 yards over 15 games. Problem isn't the ypc. He should average 7-8 imo behind this line. An average - very average back can get 4-5 ypc behind this line. Etienne is much better than that. The real issue is he has to share carrries with Branson and Frazier and then the other backs will get the carries in garbage time games (Bowens, Cash, Phillips). Plus when Rod Rob comes back he will get some carries. So I've done the math and in big games that are close he will get 18 touches a game but in unimportant games or blowout games that goes down to around 12 touches total. 1700 is nuts, not happening. Now 1200 rushing and 300-400 receiving is a possibility and he and Beck will be both in New York.
hey @BigDawg888 from some of you other posts, you seem to be very confident in high output offense this year. History just doesn’t support it. Next week will give us our first indication of the possibilities. GO DAWGS
Err … maybe he meant to say No. 1 in team rushing, but started the weekend a bit early. 🤣
Etienne: 6.5 yds/carry x 14 carries/game x 14 games (injury, possible suspension) = 1,274 yards
Branson: 6 yds x 11 carries x 15 games = 990
Roderick: 6 yds x 8 carries x 12 games = 576
Frazier: 7 yds x 6 carries x 14 games = 588
Jones, Phillips, et al: 5.5 yds x 3 carries x 16 games = 264
Jet sweeps, etc: 15 yds x 12 carries = 180
QBs: 2.5 yds x 30 carries = 180
TOTALS: 6.3 yds/carry … 246.7 yds/game … 3,947 total rushing yards …
Looks good. Take half of Roderick's yards and give them to Frazier plus about 150 of Branson's yards. Frazier = 576+288 (half of Rod's cause he's out for a long while)+150 of Branson's.
Etienne - 1274
Frazier - 1014
Branson - 840
Now that looks better. All things are injury free estimates obviously. We know Rod is out for at least half the year or more.
I am very optimistic. I think we average 45 ppg this year. This offense is unstoppable as long as Beck stays injury free. Lots of yards and lots of points. Quality running back depth and a Joe Moore award winning offensive line. Tight Ends 4 deep and about 7 quality wide receivers plus a great punt return guy in Evans. Combine that with a great defense (back to top 5 this year) and lots of short fields and you have a lot, ALOT of points scored quickly. Even in garbage time teams will have to contend with a very stout 2nd team OL and running backs 3, 4, 5, 6 who are all quality (Frazier will start season as the 3rd rb, Cash who is very good, Bowens and Phillips). So we will score additional points in garbage time.
I am a big sunshine pumper this year. I was last year and if not for injuries we win it all. In fact I think I predicted a NC the last 3 years and was right 2 years and close last year. I think this team is going to be much better than last year because of defense, offensive line, and the bevy or quality running backs.
I’ve speed read through the comments here. I don’t have a clue really what our RBs will average per carry or total season yds. All I know is having a Great stable of RBs coupled with a Great O Line will take allot of pressure off Beck.
He will be able to operate with the confidence that it’s Not ALL on him to win the game by himself. Dawgs Offense should be Very, Very potent !! Dawgs might need to lean more heavily on the O to get the job done until some of the youth on Defense can grow more. I think we have a very solid Defense but there’s allot of Quality youth there that need Time to grow.
So hopefully our O coupled with great special teams play can power our Dawgs to victory by out scoring the opponent in a Big way until our Defense can grow and better control the ebb and flow of the game. It’s a Good thing to have this powerful stable of RBs !!! Go Dawgs !!