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Did Dallas just scam The Hawks in their trade for Porzingis ?..

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Comments

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Bank. Dallas or Memphis will have to completely tank to ''catch'' The Hawks over 12 games.

    Where it really gets dicey is the lottery, Dallas could get a 5th or higher spot and they'd retain their pick. That is going to be huge one way or the other.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    MeR. The only concern I have with Collins is his play when the opponent has a big skilled under the basket center. He tends to play very soft against bigger,tough and skilled centers.

  • PTDawgPTDawg Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Might have some reverse scoreboard watching down the stretch. Hawks finishing top 5 and the Mavs finishing 6 or 7 is definitely doable. Hawks 4-6 in their last 10, Mavs are 2-8. If those percentages hold then it'll come down to 81 or 82 before we know. How that falls will go a long way in evaluating the Trae/Luka trade in my book.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    PT. of course finishing 6th from the bottom won't guarantee they won't draw a top 5 pick in the lottery. Conversely finishing 5th worst won't guarantee they will stay at 5.

    It will still come down to the lottery. All 14 lottery teams have at least some shot at any of the top 3 spots. The remaining 11 teams will retain the spot they finish at in the regular season.

  • PTDawgPTDawg Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Oh, of course. I'm just playing the percentages. I would feel much better going into the lottery drawing of the Mavs win a few these last few weeks and finish say 8th from the worst, you know? A little more breathing room on the odds. Have to wait a couple more months.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    PT. No doubt the odds get better with every Mavs win and every Hawks loss, perverse as that reality is competition wise.

  • dawgitimafandawgitimafan Posts: 776 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    @WCDawg

    This is pretty dumb when you consider the Hawks control their own destiny tanking wise, unless the ping pong balls don't bounce right. Hawks can simply throw every game and stay ahead of the mavs. It's top five protected not top six.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Not dumb. You need the players to buy in and that’s not guaranteed. The Falcons damaged their prospects several times in my life with late season wins. I believe they lost #1 overall the year Billy White Shoes scored against (the niners?) on the last play of the year.

  • LD10LD10 Posts: 434 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    Hawks have a tough schedule down the stretch. The easiest games are with Orlando and San Antonio and they have lost 3 times to the Magic very badly and we hardly ever beat the Spurs. They may win 3 or 4 games at best.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    LD10, the losses to Orlando have shown how Collins plays soft when an opponent has a big strong and talented low post center. He has to get past that weak spot.

  • LD10LD10 Posts: 434 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    WC you are right. The Magic bugs have put up silly numbers this year against him. Need Can Roundfield to give him some lessons. This is one reasos hawks only may win a couple more games this year.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    LD10. Collins' offense is usually off when an opponent has a big talented center, not just his defense. He often plays timed against those teams.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    A quick bit of Google research shows Dallas has a 32% chance of landing 1 of the 4 spots chosen by the lottery. The rest of the 14 spots go by position at the end of the regular season. It looks like Dallas will be 7th worst.

    The Hawks have a 42% chance at landing a top 4 spot, but we can't end up picking lower than 5th under the new format...yea!!

    So the worst we could do is lose the Dallas pick and stay at 5th with our pick, The best we can do is the 1st overall pick ( 12% chance) and the 7th pick from Dallas.

    Our most likely outcome statistically speaking is keeping the 5th and 7th spots., but just barely so.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    Dallas managed to **** defeat from the jaws of victory in OT tonight.

    That leaves them tied for 6th worst record with 11 games left in the regular season. They have 5 more wins than The Hawks, both teams have 11 games left on their schedules. So if The Hawks go 5-6 the rest of the way Dallas would have to go 0-11 to tie us for the 5th spot. If The Hawks go 8-3 Dallas would have to go 3-8 to tie us. If Hawks' management allows Dallas to cheat us out of the 5th spot they deserve team herpes.

  • TheSmartWayTheSmartWay Posts: 901 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Wasn’t the mavs pick top-10 protected? How does that’s work?

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited March 2019

    The Mavs' 1st rd pick is top 5 protected. They'll finish the regular season with either the 6th or 7th worst record. The lottery will chose the 1 thru 4 picks, the other 10 spots will stay where they finish the regular season, or as close as possible to it. So if The Mavs don't win a top 4 spot, they will stay at either 6 or 7 and the pick will belong to Atlanta. If The Mavs win a top 4 spot, they keep this years' pick and Atlanta gets their 2020 1st rd pick regardless of what spot it is.

  • GeorgiaGirlGeorgiaGirl Posts: 1,850 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    It would really surprise me if there was more than about 3 wins left. There's 1 game left that is in theory, 50/50 but I'll say that one other game gets stolen from a team that is better and one game is won from a resting playoff team. Otherwise, that's it.

  • WCDawgWCDawg Posts: 17,293 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    GeorgiaGirl. If we win 4 or fewer, Dallas can't tank deep enough to take the 5th spot from us...it's math.

  • dawgitimafandawgitimafan Posts: 776 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I don't mind those 12% odds of getting Zion, not bad! Good info

  • corai3corai3 Posts: 667 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I was listening to the radio this morning and one of the guys said Zion could instantly increase the value of a franchise by half a billion dollars.

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