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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
Testing is still important but it's more important towards the beginning of an outbreak. If you can identify the infected early in an outbreak, do rigorous contact tracing, and isolate all of them it goes a long way in preventing widespread transmission. Places like New York are past containment and have moved towards mitigation as well as revamping hospitals to deal with an influx of patients. However, a good portion of the country can still try to contain the virus using testing and contact tracing.
I think there are a few things going on:
In addition to that, across the country, there are enough people on the left and the right of things who for one reason or another are defying social distancing norms and so New York, like most of the US, is taking one step forward and two steps back. Until we all do it for 3 weeks, this **** social distancing will go on and on. It's like the kid who keeps misbehaving in class while the rest of the class is waiting to go to recess, but you have to wait for that last kid to behave before everyone can go out.
Yep, that is the strategy California has taken and why I can't get tested. I still feel like I have a small child sitting on my chest with each breath, but I will never know if it is Covid-19 unless I get bad enough that I have to go to the ER as the testing strategy has changed from containment to identifying how to treat a critical patient. In other words, testing in California is now about mitigation. More testing in New York might help people be sure that they have to self-quarantine, but widespread testing only helps with containment. Once you get beyond containment to triage, it's about mitigation.
Yeah at this point anyone with symptoms in those population centers being hit hardest are considered positive and told to self isolate for two weeks and only come in during emergencies. Same thing happening in southwest CT at the beginning of the outbreak where a lot of people commute to NYC. CT was only doing 20 tests a day in the state lab, so they just told everyone to assume they had COVID-19 if they had a fever and cough. It was ridiculous.
Has anyone published hospitalization numbers? We know the confirmed case, and we know death. The WHO and CDC publish that daily. What we don't know is how many are currently hospitalized. Since the big concern is overwhelming hospitals I think that would be important info...moreso than just raw "positives". That 60,000 confirmed US cases includes people who were confirmed early (Jan and Feb) and probably are over it now. It's not a "current" number, it's cumulative. And of that 60,000 about 80% need no medical assistance. So, what is the actual impact on the US health care system right now today?
So right now NYC says 12% of active cases require a hospital bed and 3% require an ICU bed. They have over 21,000 cases so I just took a few thousand off and did a little math based on the hospitalizations doubling every two days which has been the norm. With 5,000 normal beds and 3,000 ICU beds they would have run out of beds in about a week (This is back of the envelope math with what I could find so take it with a huge grain of salt). Good news is the hospitalization rate as dropped to doubling every four days instead of every two which gives them more time to prepare if it holds the next couple of weeks.
Edit: this assumes all beds are empty and being used exclusively for COVID-19 patients.
This is sad...
Interesting. 3,000 ICU beds in NYC for a population of 8.5 million seems low. I'm sure they have whatever amount is required by state/federal law or regulation...but it still seems low.
Lots of tragic stories with this. Lots of heroes everywhere that we will never hear about. Thankful for the nameless heroes who are making us safer.
Quiet, beautiful day here. Got a pic of this guy from a few days ago. Pretty sure I won't have to social distance from him in about a week, so that's a positive. Saturday is actually youth day, so if I can talk my 16 yr old into getting out of the bed, we may go listen to him gobble at daylight... About a 8% chance of her complying.
No kidding. Sounds ridiculously low. Not sure how true it is but I read somewhere that there are only 300,000 beds for the whole country. That sounds really low to me also.
"New York has roughly 54,000 total hospital beds, and 3,100 ICU beds. The New York City region, defined as New York City along with Westchester, Rockland, Orange and Putnam counties, has 36,000 beds and 2,100 ICU beds, according to the New York State Department of Health."
Well I misread the regular beds, so sorry about that. I also gave ICU beds for the entire state instead of just NYC.
Maybe should do your math on the back of a different envelope?😁😎
You're right. It's the envelope not me
Good and interesting day for me today.
First, it's the wife's birthday, so need to make it as special as we can. Good spirits all around. We always celebrate out birthdays with steaks and bake potato dinner. She was worried that we may not get to do it this year because of the grocery shortages.
Now to rewind a few days. Grass is growing and needs to be cut. My riding lawnmower hasn't run since last spring. Had someone cut the grass last year, can't afford it this year. Worked on trying to get the mower started, dead battery plus flat tires. Battery charger didn't do a thing. I have a 92 Jeep Cherokee that also hasn't run since last spring. Thought it was the starter after trying a new battery and nothing. So I pulled the battery the other day from it and charge it to see if I could jump the mower. Good full charge, but no luck. Needed to get a new battery for the mower.
Jump ahead to today. Went to get a battery for the mower. Found one for $24 bucks. Stopped at the store to do a quick shop for us and the lady I help with in the nursing home. Found steaks so wife is happy. Got home and put the new battery in the mower, cranked right up. Inflated the tires and cut some grass. YEAH!!! Placed the battery back in the jeep and WHAT?? It cranked up and purred like a kitten... really?
And on the way home, stopped at Walgreens and they had TP. Bought 2 four packs and gave them to the wifey for her birthday. She really was excited like she just got a diamond..
Great day!!
Potential Indicator of Virus Without Test!!!!
As I posted yesterday, both my Dr and my Mother’ Dr have tested positive. They are stable and quarantined at home.
In speaking with them, both indicated that they had LOST their SENSE of SMELL. This may or may not be scientifically confirmed as a tell tale sign, but their is enough anecdotal evidence to keep this in mind.
@YaleDawg @CaliforniaDawg and others, have any of you read about this?