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What Can We Expect From Todd Monken's Offense?

AnotherDawg

Credit @Kasey and @striker42 for this thread. 😀

Also @law_dawg35 for his discussion of bold predictions for 2020, where the issue of Todd Monken's offensive style came up.

This is meant to be a wide open discussion, giving us something to talk about and look FORWARD to for the upcoming season.

Here are some questions that I'm curious to know the answers to:

What kind of numbers will Jamie Newman put up, in the air and on the ground?
What will each of our RB's do, on the ground and in the passing game?
Who will our top WR's be, and what will their numbers looks like?
Will any of the freshman WR's make an impact?
What role will Blaylock play coming off injury?
How about the TE's?
And what about the OL? How will it differ? Both in personnel and scheme.

@texdawg and our other football experts are welcome to talk about the finer points rather than stats. I've never been a coach so I don't know exactly what distinguishes Monken's offense from Chaney/Coley or Joe Brady or Mike Leach or Andy Reid, etc.

Just to kick things off, and FWIW, I'm going to post (below) a summary of the leading rushers and receivers for each of Monken's seasons (college and pro) as an OC or a HC.

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Comments

AnotherDawg

Here's a (partial) look at Todd Monken's track record as OC or HC. Naturally it doesn't tell the whole story, but I thought some folks would find it interesting. Every 1000 yd performer is listed, and if there was none for a given season then the leader is listed.

1998 Eastern Michigan RB Eric Powell 473 yds, WR Jermaine Sheffield 953 yds

1999 Eastern Michigan RB Eric Powell 583 yds, WR Brandon Campbell 764 yds

2002 OK State RB Tatum Bell 1096 yds, WR Rashaun Woods 1695 yds

2003 OK State RB Tatum Bell 1286 yds, WR Rashaun Woods 1367 yds

2004 OK State RB Vernand Morency 1474 yds, WR D'Juan Woods 690 yds

2011 OK State RB Joseph Randle 1216 yds, WR Justin Blackmon 1522 yds

2012 OK State RB Joseph Randle 1417 yds, WR Josh Stewart 1210 yds

2013 So. Miss RB Kendrick Hardy 417 yds, WR Markese Triplett 558 yds

2014 So. Miss RB Ito Smith 536 yds, WR Michael Thomas 592 yds

2015 So. Miss RB Ito Smith 1128 yds, RB Jalen Richard 1098 yds, WR Michael Thomas 1391 yds

2016 Tampa Bay RB Jacquizz Rodgers 560 yds, WR Mike Evans 1321 yds

2017 Tampa Bay RB Peyton Barber 423 yds, WR Mike Evans 1001 yds

2018 Tampa Bay RB Peyton Barber 871 yds, WR Mike Evans 1524 yds

2019 Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb 1494 yds, WR Jarvis Landry 1174 yds, WR Odell Beckham 1035 yds

AnotherDawg

BTW, if there's already a good Monken discussion going then feel free to bump that and the mods can dump this. As the immortal Nicholas Cage said in Moonstruck, "I ain't no freakin' monument to justice!"

law_dawg35

Gotta say I'm definitely excited about Monkens offense. With the talent we have I think Georgia will have the potential to be scary good on offense.

I could see a few guys with over 1000 yards. Ill try not to get ahead of myself.

YaleDawg

He gives us a new person to blame if things go bad.

AnotherDawg

https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/comment/428790#Comment_428790

Well said! (LOL)

Filo_Betto

I'm not looking for a complete overhaul, just a few more first downs per half.

I liked some aspects of both Chaney's and Coley's schemes. I think many of the initial game plans we had were solid but their ability to adjust or anticipate defensive adjustments was abysmal.

If Monken's scheme can see us convert just a few more third downs per game we will be exponentially more explosive than the last two years. Kirby's philosophy depends on winning the fourth quarter and the compounding effects of winning the LoS over the first three quarters. This requires staying on the field and limiting 3 and outs. I don't think the offensive philosophy will change drastically.

Those extra set of downs during games will allow Monken to open the playbook and take more shots.

Biggest example of this was the difference btw our game against Carolina and Bama's. Bama's big plays demoralized Carolina's D and made their O one-dimensional in the second half even though Carolina played a good first half. Our inability to finish drives (not to mention the TOs) kept them in the game and eventually gave them a chance to win.

JRT812

who knows... they can’t even get a practice in

PerroGrande

Good stuff, AnotherDawg. Something I noticed even as a kid years ago: success follows the best coaches pretty closely. They might have a rebuilding year, but they produce wherever they go, and they have ways of making the best of their talent. When I look at Monken's offenses, I believe I see that same pattern of success I've noticed with other great coaches. I think he is going to be a great OC, and one we will talk about for a long time. Kudos to Kirby for hiring him. Change is never easy.

I've said this before, but I think it is worth repeating. Many of the coaches from the Saban tree have been done in by a lack of offense. My personal opinion is that it's complacency. How many times has our defense held an opponent to 50 yards on the ground and Kirby, while applauding the win and the stats, complains about techniques, or alignment, or something else? Conversely, how many times have you heard him make excuses for the offense? The SEC is a tough conference. You have to wear a defense down, so you aren't going to have success all of the time early in the game. I'm sure he would deny this, but I believe he has a different standard for his offense and defense, and that's a throwback to his Saban inspired upbringing. He's got to raise his expectations for our offense. I personally believe that watching what Bama and LSU have done recently nudged him to make the changes he needed to make.

Chaney and Coley were certainly competent, but what they didn't do great, imho, was attack the weak points of the defense. Some might call it real time adjustments. That might have come from Kirby, in their defense. Basically, it was the attitude that we are Georgia, and we are going to run it down your throat, and we really don't care if you know the exact play we are going to run. The problem with that strategy is that it doesn't multiply your strengths. Running the football is great and Georgia is always going to be good at it, but that doesn't mean you run into a box stacked with eight players on first and second down. If the other team does that, you throw for 500 yards and five TDs. The next week you will be running against 6-7 guys in the box and your YPC will go up dramatically. Our personnel hurt us a lot last year. As great as Jake was, he was no threat to run off and leave anybody. Our fastest and best receivers stayed hurt. Kelly said it early in the season--the strategy for UGA, based on our receiver talent, was to put the extra hats in the box and to challenge the receivers all night. It worked pretty well.

I see the coaching changes and the personnel changes (QBs, the fast new WRs, new TE) as an unspoken statement from Kirby that fixing the offensive issues were his highest priority this year. Monken, I believe, will produce UGA's best offensive stats in Kirby's tenure, and perhaps the best ever. I think he will do wonders for Cook and Zeus and our running game will be more explosive. I think the freshmen WRs will produce at least two solid contributors this year, and I believe Drob will finally have that breakout season. McKitty will do well, too. The one big issue Monken has working against him is time on the field. We need this Spring worse than most because of all of the new talent and coaching on offense. We may be a work in progress early next year. The good news is that our defense could be ready to play next week. We may have to win the early games with defense while Monken works on the offense. UVA, Bama, and Auburn are all going to be challenges for Monken, but I think he is up to the challenge. Should be an interesting season.

striker42

https://forum.dawgnation.com/discussion/20463/what-can-we-expect-from-todd-monkens-offense

Overall, I expect a better year than under Coley but I'm trying to keep my expectations in check. You have a new OC who is going to have his own system and the players will have to adapt to that. I also don't expect it to be as pass happy as Monken has been in the past. Smart likes a run heavy game because it reduces the number of snaps played meaning fewer chances for guys to get injured. I expect Monken will have to adapt to that. Then there's the lost time from Covid-19 to deal with.

1- I expect Newman's numbers to be good but not flashy as I still expect a run heavy offense. I think a big difference might be the deep threat. I could see Newman's better ability to stretch the field paying big dividends.

2- I expect a regression at RB this year. This isn't an insult, it's more that we've had a long stretch of super elite RBs with Gurley, Chubb, Sony, and Swift. We can't keep that up forever. I think Zeus will be the primary back as he's more the grinder. I'm hoping we see Cook used in the receiving game. I'm not sure Coley knew passing to the RB was allowed.

3- Pickens will be our best receiver by far. I could see him breaking 900 yards this year.

4- I think we'll have at least one freshman WR make an impact but I think the impact will be limited. Again, Covid-19 has unsettled things which could hurt the chances of freshman making immediate impacts.

5- I see Blaylock getting off to a slower start as he lags behind the rest due to rehab. I see him getting more playing time as the year goes on eventually playing the role of the number 2 WR.

6- I want to see the TEs in the mix more but it's not really our deepest position. I expect they'll be used more (how could they be used less?) but still not have a huge impact in the passing game.

7- We're replacing two first round draft picks. That's going to be difficult no matter what. Still, Pittman left us in good shape. I'm not sure about scheme as I've not delved that deeply into what Monken likes to do with his OL. I don't expect drastic differences right away. You gotta play up to what your personnel can do.

Casanova_Flatulence

Based on what I've read, Coach Monken likes to use the entire field, which means more throws inside the hashmarks.
I'm hoping we have fewer stalled drives inside the 35. You can't beat Bama making a living off of Field Goals. Got to punch it into the end zone.
Improved red zone production, particularly inside the 5 yard line.
More runs by the QB, assuming Newman is the starter.
Higher points per game average.

christopherules

Kirby Smart is growing (and evolving) as a head football coach. He simply has to in order to ascend to the levels he aspires to get to in winning that elusive "natty" that we all want Georgia to win. The hiring of new OC Todd Monken shows that change (for the better) it is coming. I personally can see the offenses Todd Monken had at Tampa Bay being run in Athens from the beginning, and additions to it throughout the season, as the offense learns and grows through the year. I am most excitied to see QB Jamie Newman with the keys to the bright shiny new corvette of an offense,.

GrayDawg

I'm just glad we are now talking like the season is for sure going to happen. At this point, I'll take sloppy, rusty, fumbling and bumbling football because it is better than no football. My expectations for Monken are moderate. I like what he has done in the past. I think he could bring a lot to the table. He and CML seem to be a great fit. However, there is a lot of change going on and that always makes me temper my expectations. Year two under Monken is where I expect the offense to really make strides.

MacDawg15

With an unproven freshman kicker, along with obviously being able to convert more on 3rd down will be big. But without question BECAUSE of not knowing what to expect after losing specs is what we do to be successful in the red zone. If that goes up as well as throw in some big plays where we have the potential to score even from our own territory= as good of an offense as we could possibly hope for given the distractions we've seen this year.

AnotherDawg

Based on individual productivity for college players under Monken, what kind of season could our top guys be capable of? There are so many unknowns it's impossible to predict anything with certainty, but here's an educated guess.

Jamie Newman: 4,500 yards, 38 td's, 12 int. Monken got the same production from Brandon Weeden (OK St. 2011) and Nick Mullens (So. Miss 2015). Weeden became a 1st round draft pick, but Mullens went undrafted.
George Pickens: 1,500 yards and 15 td's. Big numbers for sure, but that would be in line with the production of Rashaun Woods and Justin Blackmon, whom Monken coached at OK St. Both became 1st round picks, though neither enjoyed success in the NFL, for various reasons.
Zamir White: 1,100 yards, 11 td's. As long as he stays healthy this seems like a safe bet. Georgia's lead RB has averaged 1,185 yds in the CKS era. Monken's lead RB's have averaged 965 yds, but that includes a few seasons with marginal players on weak teams. If everything goes right, White could actually put up something like 1,400 yards and 18 td's. Those are the kinds of numbers Monken got out of Tatum Bell, Joseph Randle, Vernand Morency, and Ito Smith.

There are some other questions I'm just as interested in. What might Newman's rush numbers be? How does the TE fit in? What about the rest of our RB's and WR's? From a numbers standpoint, that's a deeper dive that I'll try to come back to later.

With or without projections, I'm curious to know everyone else's thoughts.

dradcliff

I know we are not going to be an Air Raid team, but it is expected that we will use those concept. In the Air Raid there is no tight end. It will be interesting to see how are TE are used. I do not expect to see them blocking very much. Part of the Air Raid is having allbreceivers run routes to keep Db's busy, with the QB having the option to throw to any receiver if they are open or have a numbers advantage when the ball is snapped.