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5 questions with TCU beat writer: Why Horned Frogs have ‘punchers chance’ at upset
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5 questions with TCU beat writer: Why Horned Frogs have ‘punchers chance’ at upset
ATHENS — Kirby Smart has seen to it that Georgia move on from its historic and memorable 42-41 shootout win over Ohio State in a clash of college football titans last Saturday night.
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Rat poison. The Dawgs better have a man ball mindset on the O Line and D Line.
Why does everyone say that Georgia only defeated four ranked teams? From the final College Playoff Section, they have defeated (4) OSU, (6) Tennessee, (15) Oregon, (17) LSU, (19) South Carolina, and (22) MSU.
Lets be honest, Michigan should have won that game with TCU. THey screwed up a couple of times near the goal line and the QB threw 2 pick sixes. They tackled poorly in space a couple of times allowing big plays. Give TCU for catching those balls and running them back but 2 in one game is extraordinary and rarely happens.
We take advantage of our opportunities and play sound defense, we win by 14 or more. Don't and it will be another cliff hanger.
Georgia has beaten SIX teams that are currently ranked, MissSt, South Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, LSU, Ohio State.
TCU has beaten THREE teams that are currently ranked, Kansas St, Texas, Michigan.
These columns are amateurish.
Be ahead in the 4th quarter as TCU does not have anywhere near the depth that Georgia enjoys. If Georgia is up by 10-14 points heading into the 4th quarter-We win by 14-21 points.
Finally watched the 2nd half of the TCU/MI game. Duggan's stats weren't impressive (aided by short out turned into a 76 yd score) but he has real command of their O and is a major run threat. Struggled with long balls in the 1st half but had a beautiful 46 yd completion on a deep cross that hit the WR in stride . Arguably the best QB UGA has seen this season.
TCU WR1 had 163 yds receiving. He is big and very good. Seems like a good matchup for Ringo to shadow IF he is ready to play his A game. WR2 had 34 yds. TCU has 2 good RB's. Though 1 is apparently banged up a little.
QB is protected by a BIG senior laden OL. Starters avg 6'5" 317 lb. They play a lot of bully ball. Not sure where UGA gets pressure from. Sacrificing the spy and blitzing could be risky w/a dangerous runner at QB.
TCU coach works the ref's constantly. He complained indignantly for multiple plays after almost every call (and some non-calls).
TCU DL seemed a bit undersized but have some active athletes. LDE #98 in particular applied consistent pressure on the pocket. TCU sometimes rush only 3 and drop 8. The MI QB often had time but missed throws. Could be a good tactic vs UGA. Take away the short, quick routes, double BB and make SBIV beat you with longer throws.
The TCU DB's are SEC like. Physical and handsy. Good supporting the run but pass D seemed hit or miss. The entire D seems hyper ready to jump anything short. Seem VERY susceptible to double moves. They have athletes at LB. Their best CB is good. But also 5'9". Weak link may be TCU S's.
Going to be a really interesting game. TCU QB is the key. If he has a good game TCU has much better than a puncher's chance.
Throwing interceptions and Duggan's legs are my biggest concerns coming into this game.
Not to contribute to any rat poison, but...
Ohio State, Tennessee, Oregon, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi State - Those are the 6 currently ranked teams (CFP) that UGA has beaten.
TCU has beaten Michigan, Texas, and Kansas State. That's 3.
For top 25 AP Rankings, UGA has beaten - Ohio State, Tennessee, Oregon, LSU, South Carolina, and Mississippi State (still 6).
TCU has beaten - Micigan, Texas, and Kansas State (still 3).
Mid-season rankings DO NOT MATTER in post-season discussions. It doesn't matter what a team was ranked when you played them if they didn't hold on to that ranking at the end of the season. If they weren't good enough to hold on to it or move up, they were overrated. Same goes for underrating.
TCU is a very good team and imho deserves respect. That said I Believe our Dawgs are a significantly Better team in terms of both Coaching Staff and over all talent depth. @DawgNation IMPORTANT !!! Does DN staff or any Dawgs fans have any input about the Weather in CA ?? Watching the weather news this morning they made it sound that the entire state of CA will be Heavily affected by the Bomb Cyclone hitting the state !! Already massive flooding in many areas out there. So will the game go on in CA ?? Comments ??
We will miss the Big O, with him and Brock in together it's pick your poison. However, I'm thinking CTM might have something up his sleeve with Delp. Not as big a target but faster and has good hands. I'm liking the situation with our WR's right now, all of them. All can contribute. I'm sure CKS will try to establish the run in order to get their safeties to try to help out in the run game. If we can run then everything should be a go offensively. Depends on how our defense responds to their offense the first few possessions. If they come out and go bang-bang then we may just have to try to match fire with fire!
I expect TCU to use tempo to try and wear down the Dawgs. I also expect Duggan to run more than he did in the Michigan game. Stet will be more challenged figuring out the TCU defense prior to the snap than at any other time this season (hence why my biggest worry is Stet throwing interceptions). Will he make the right read?
TCU will try to exploit the obvious weaknesses in our pass defense and will use their running game to set up the pass like the Dawgs do. Johnstone is as good or better than OSU's Harrison at receiver and may easily outmaneuver Ringo.
I think we will end up having to rely more on an effective running game than some might think. I REALLY hope Washington is healthy enough to play. He is a key cog in our running game.
@reddawg1
"THey screwed up a couple of times near the goal line and the QB threw 2 pick sixes. They tackled poorly in space a couple of times allowing big plays."
So they executed poorly at the goal line, tackled poorly in space, made mental errors and still somehow "should have won the game"? And keep in mind ... they had a month off to prepare. Where one team was coached up, mentally ready, fully prepared and focused on the team that they were actually playing the other team - Michigan - clearly viewed the game as a warmup scrimmage to prepare for what they thought was going to be the real game - the national title rematch against UGA. Where TCU is talking about how much they respect UGA - as did Ohio State in the month preceding the very close game in which Ohio State played extremely well and fought literally until the last drive (in which they were betrayed by their coach) - Michigan's players were bragging about how they were going to introduce this Big 12 team TCU to the physical Big 10.
Now I am willing to accept the possibility that Michigan has better players. So what. USC has as many guys who will play in the NFL as anyone in the country and they just lost to Tulane! TULANE!! (Maybe Georgia Tech should have hired the Tulane coach after all ... my main issue with Willie Fritz is my thinking that 62 is too old, but in retrospect he could have given the Engineers 10 good years which would have been plenty. The "youthful energy" of their previous coach was a flop ... he didn't even recruit as well as Chan Gailey and Bobby Ross did.) TCU was better prepared, executed better the entire game, overcame an injury to their best tailback and their QB having a subpar day (14-29 with 2 picks) and withstood the Michigan comeback. TCU "should have won" and did in fact do so, just like UGA in their game.
That's the deal ... if anyone has any space to say this it should be "let's be honest Ohio State should have won." I won't list the reasons because you have heard them a million times already. Well your diminishing what TCU earned on the field is no better than the haters doing that to your own UGA team.
The game will go on at SoFi Stadium, barring an earthquake. The storm is hitting now and is moving eastward. Rain is in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday, but SoFi is covered so it shouldn't affect play. When UGA played in the Rose Bowl a few years ago, there were wildfires everywhere, some fairly close to the Rose Bowl, yet the status of the game was never in doubt.
@navydawg...SoFi stadium is an open air design which allows for cool breezes from the ocean to come in. 63 and only showers on Monday in Inglewood. I don't expect the game to be affected at all.
It sounded like the Benz stadium was too warm for the OSU game. Players seemed more gassed than normal and guys were getting cramps. Hopefully, the SoFi experience will be cooler. There is no A/C in that stadium, so I feel sure they will have some outside cool air circulating.
Sonny Dykes has done a fantastic job in a short amount of time at TCU. Quite the turnaround from a pretty mediocre if not bad season last year.
TCU's recruiting rankings:
2022- 45th
2021 - 54th
2020 - 23rd
2019 - 32nd
So, not stellar results on the recruiting trail, BUT Dykes was able to come in and convince most players to stay in the program after he stepped in. Also, a big key was that TCU pulled 14 players out of the transfer portal.
Sonny has obviously used the portal to his advantage and given the Frogs a big boost.
I see us running for over 359 yards and our pass game being less than 150
@thadec
We should have lost but we didn't. We overcame our mistakes. Michigan looked like they were dead 2-3 times in that game and they kept clawing back in despite their giving up 2 pick sixes and blowing what looked like a sure TD on the 1st drive of the game and fumbling on the goal line later on a botched hand off. That's what, 28 points. right. That stuff doesn't happen they win going away. I gave credit to the TCU DB's for making the play on those ill advised throws, sort of like SB's throw to Kenny McInt. He threw it right to the defender, but good on the defender for catching it. BUt thats no credit to the Ohio St team for being "better" or "more prepared."
It's all a game of woulda shoulda, but yes, Michigan should have won, just like Ohio St. shoulda, like Kirby said himself. But we came back just enough and Michigan fell short. Close but no cigar. TCU played a near perfect game and won, barely! Michigan played like dog meat and it was still there for the taking. Ohio St. played a near perfect game and lost, barely! It was there for the taking but the FG kicker missed. That's not because UGA was more "prepared" somehow that he missed. Stuff just happens. There is still some chance involved. Everyone knows we didn't play our best, but we won against a team with as many high caliber players as we have, probably more on offense than we have. TCU beat the better team, with better players as you said. I take nothing away from TCU's effort but it still remains they should of lost, but they didn't.
I've written in this forum that TCU will be a good opponent and we'd better play our A game. I think you'd agree with that.
@Vetdawg
Mentioned this to @MikeGriffith yesterday though I neglected to check his reply ... TCU's stopping Michigan's running game actually wasn't a surprise due to the strange version of the 3-3-5 that they play. Most teams who run the 3-3-5 were either running the 3-4 or the 4-2-5 prior. In the former case, they just replace an ILB with a strong safety or rover who essentially does the same thing. In the latter case, they just turn the LDE into an LOLB who does the same thing. Not much else changes in terms of personnel, strategy, formation etc. But that isn't the case with TCU's 3-3-5.
Instead it looks like TCU actually put thought into theirs. They use a traditional 3-4 DL: DE, NT, DE. (They have a former UGA NT as their own 2nd string NT). But instead of "three LBs from a 3-4 scheme with a safety replacing an ILB" they actually use traditional 4-3 LBs: OLB, MLB, OLB who play like 4-3 LBs.
And in the secondary, instead of going with 2 CBs and 3 safeties, they use 2 safeties and 3 CBs. They don't need the extra safety because their LBs play 4-3 style!
So if Michigan - who has built their entire program from the ground up around running the football - wasn't able to get much going against that TCU setup, I honestly don't see how UGA is going to. UGA hasn't been a dominant rushing team since 2018 and honestly hasn't tried to be since 2020. When was the last time UGA had a 1000 yard rusher? How many times the last 2 years have they had a single RB go over 100 yards in a game? And remember: this was with playing 15 games last year and 14 games so far this year.
To partially answer the questions I just threw at you ... there have been three 100 yard rushing games by UGA this season: McIntosh against Kentucky (19-143), Edwards against Florida (12-106) and Milton against LSU (8-113). Expecting UGA to rush for 360 yards when they haven't run that type of offense in years isn't realistic. By comparison, UGA only rushed for 320 yards against Oklahoma in 2017 and it took them 34 carries in double OT to get there. Not only is the TCU defense much better than that Oklahoma sieve but even if you are going to claim that McIntosh, Milton and Edwards are the equal of Chubb, Michel and Swift, they aren't going to get anywhere near the 34 carries to prove it. UGA's tailbacks only carried it 16 times against Ohio State. Edwards had 8 carries and the other tailbacks had 8 between them.
Great points.
the main reason behind this statement is the type of defense which as you mentioned is t traditional but the other thought behind this is I feel it’s our best way to exploit the largest advantage Georgia has over them… our depth. As you stated our rbs haven’t had many 100 yard games over the last 2 years. But the feeling of not having clock control and having to sling it all over the field from the start I don’t set well with Kirby. In order to set a tone for the game, I do feel we run the ball much much more. I also feel like our stable of healthy rbs and our depth at o line are better than anything they’ve seen yet. Once again for the second year in a row the Joe Moore winner was spanked in the first game following receipt of the award.