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Comments
You use 3rd and long as an indicator of how often you are facing 3rd and long. You use 3rd and long passing rate to indicate your confidence in your passing game. Does he minimize damage or maximize the chance of conversion.
Plateau: a state of little or no change following a period of activity or progress. There I thought I would help you understand what you are seeing.
Not winning a playoff game in 3 years is a plateau.
@CTD ? You sure it is not CTE?
Yes...and, no.…imo. You DO evaluate 1st and 2nd Down based on the rate of 3rd and long per drive....depending on starting field position [another pesky nuance.].
But,....your passing game is entirely dependant on your success in the trenches when using a pro-style offense that relies on the play-action pass.
You have to keep the defense honest. Last year's running game was too inconsistent to develop a good rhythm in the passing game.
Which...imo...is the reason for all the screens and short passes. It was to loosen up an opposing defense that is sold out on stopping a sporadic...and at times absent..."running game".
Not to mention, the short screens and passes are an alternate method of getting the ball to your "playmakers" in open space on the other side of the LOS...when the O-Line fails to open holes.
We're back to 1st and 2nd down success rate. Imo...The Offensive Line is what feeds the kitty in UGA's brand of offense. As directed by the boss....Kirby Smart. Lol
I don't think that's gonna be an issue for the foreseeable future. The Dawgs O-Line and Offensive Backfield are salty & very impressive going forward.
That being said....nowadays....fortunes can turn on a dime. Lol
Go Dawgs!
I agree that the offensive line and early-down success feed the entire operation. No argument there. And yes, screens and quick throws can serve as extensions of the running game when the line is not consistently creating space.
Where I disagree is the idea that a pro-style play-action passing game is entirely dependent on first establishing the run. Defenders react to run action, personnel, formations and tendencies. You do not have to be averaging six yards per carry before play-action becomes useful.
And short passes only loosen a defense when they are paired with something that threatens the defense behind it. If the opponent knows the quarterback is unlikely to attack the intermediate middle or throw beyond the sticks, the defense does not loosen up—it compresses toward the line of scrimmage.
The offensive line is certainly part of the explanation, but it cannot become a blanket excuse for the coordinator. When the running game is inconsistent, the OC’s job is to manufacture alternatives: throw more on neutral downs, use movement and misdirection, vary formations, attack matchups, move the pocket and create easier vertical opportunities.
So yes, it comes back to first- and second-down success. But that success is produced by both execution and play design. The offensive line feeds the kitty, but the coordinator still decides what is on the menu.