What Braves should do now...

PTDawg · January 2019

@Dawgforever said:
Markakis isn't a weak link though so I'm not upset about that one. Starting pitching has been our Achilles heel

I would say more specifically top of the rotation starting pitching. They had depth last season, finishing top 10 in MLB in staff ERA. That speaks to depth. That goes out the window in the playoffs, though. You need 2-3 elite guys for a short series rotation. It doesn't matter how good your 4th/5th starters are then because they become middle relief, mostly. Arizona largely rode the Schilling/Big Unit combo to a title just to pick one example, beating the Jeter-led Yankees in their prime.

WCDawg · January 2019

@PTDawg said:

@Dawgforever said:
Markakis isn't a weak link though so I'm not upset about that one. Starting pitching has been our Achilles heel

I would say more specifically top of the rotation starting pitching. They had depth last season, finishing top 10 in MLB in staff ERA. That speaks to depth. That goes out the window in the playoffs, though. You need 2-3 elite guys for a short series rotation. It doesn't matter how good your 4th/5th starters are then because they become middle relief, mostly. Arizona largely rode the Schilling/Big Unit combo to a title just to pick one example, beating the Jeter-led Yankees in their prime.

No doubt that is true.
Just 2 elite starters and ok pitchers 3 thru 5 have won titles.

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

donm · January 2019

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

I haven't checked every season, but Nick's OBP in 2016 was .328 pre All Star break, .370 post All Star break, so you're off at least 1 season.

Comparing his after break lastt season to the entire year the other years of his career. Maybe not true apples to apples but you know...time is an issue.

Time might be an issue by 2020, then again it might not be.
Nick has been very durable over the past 5 years, he has a really solid approach to hitting and he has an extremely solid build. At some point age will become a factor, just when that might be is unknown.

Durability is nice, but I think every player needs rest. I don't think playing 162 games is the best approach. I hope Snit rests some of those guys (Freeman, Nick) this year.

WCDawg · January 2019

@donm said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I disagree but for humors sake:

His OBP after the break was lower than his OBP for every year in his career except for 2013. Dont try to claim .332 is a good OBP. It’s not even Top 50 in the NL. If you sort for just OFs after the break, his .332 obp was 34th in just the National League among only OFers. That’s “Has Been” territory if ever there was one.

I haven't checked every season, but Nick's OBP in 2016 was .328 pre All Star break, .370 post All Star break, so you're off at least 1 season.

Comparing his after break lastt season to the entire year the other years of his career. Maybe not true apples to apples but you know...time is an issue.

Time might be an issue by 2020, then again it might not be.
Nick has been very durable over the past 5 years, he has a really solid approach to hitting and he has an extremely solid build. At some point age will become a factor, just when that might be is unknown.

Durability is nice, but I think every player needs rest. I don't think playing 162 games is the best approach. I hope Snit rests some of those guys (Freeman, Nick) this year.

We need a good utility outfielder to emerge in camp.

Kirbstomper · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

It is your belief that we aren't getting any of those players because of this deal? This is in reference to the opportunity cost statement. Yes we can trade prospects, but that deal needs to be a reasonable deal.

With the way the market has been this year, there is definitely a paradigm shift. People aren't throwing money out like they used to.

Kirbstomper · January 2019

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

It is your belief that we aren't getting any of those players because of this deal? This is in reference to the opportunity cost statement. Yes we can trade prospects, but that deal needs to be a reasonable deal.

With the way the market has been this year, there is definitely a paradigm shift. People aren't throwing money out like they used to.

Oh I see, that’s a good question. I would have thought they signed him to be a 4th OF. That would make sense and I wouldn’t hate it. But then I read this and saw AA’s statements. It looks like they intend on at least initially having nick in a starting role.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/22/18193462/alex-anthopoulos-comments-on-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves

I suppose we still could upgrade the spot, those trades are still available. I’m hoping the quotes in the article are just lip service. But I also recognize this isn’t MLB the show and you can’t force a team to trade someone.

Bottom line. Absolute best case scenario, nick has a year similar to last and we essentially treaded water this off season. Worst case scenario is nick turns into who he was in 2016 and 2017 and we get worse.

Kirbstomper · January 2019

Just saw an interesting read on projecting nick. @WCDawg if you want to get a look into my reasoning, this article does a much better job explaining than I ever would.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/23/18194127/projecting-2019-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves-steamer-iwag-projections

TNDawg71 · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:
Just saw an interesting read on projecting nick. @WCDawg if you want to get a look into my reasoning, this article does a much better job explaining than I ever would.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/23/18194127/projecting-2019-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves-steamer-iwag-projections

I don't disagree, I just feel the risk isn't bad here and reasonable to hope that he will at least be solid, especially if he ends up in a platoon situation.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:
Just saw an interesting read on projecting nick. @WCDawg if you want to get a look into my reasoning, this article does a much better job explaining than I ever would.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/23/18194127/projecting-2019-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves-steamer-iwag-projections

It seems very convoluted to me.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

Pollock hasn't had a good season in awhile.
McCutchen would project slightly better, though he's not the player he once was.
Haniger has 1 good year, he might repeat, but it's a thin resume.
Gallo is the ultimate hit or miss guy, it's hr or bust, no thanks.
I'd like to have Brantley but so would a lot of teams.

Kirbstomper · January 2019

@WCDawg said:

@Kirbstomper said:
Just saw an interesting read on projecting nick. @WCDawg if you want to get a look into my reasoning, this article does a much better job explaining than I ever would.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/23/18194127/projecting-2019-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves-steamer-iwag-projections

It seems very convoluted to me.

Thanks for reading. Yeah sometimes when you get into a fairly deep statistical analysis it gets pretty convoluted. But again that’s a good representation of my opinions.

@WCDawg said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

Pollock hasn't had a good season in awhile.
McCutchen would project slightly better, though he's not the player he once was.
Haniger has 1 good year, he might repeat, but it's a thin resume.
Gallo is the ultimate hit or miss guy, it's hr or bust, no thanks.
I'd like to have Brantley but so would a lot of teams.

Pollack - I don’t really want him as we would lose our second round pick this year and again, he is injury prone. But he is pretty good when healthy and has played a good amount for 2 years now.

Mccutchen - big fan of his, wish we got him in hindsight. Could have given us a leadoff option. Signed for a fairly reasonable deal and can still play a corner decently and hits well.

Haniger- true there is some risk in his profile due to smaller sample size. But he does have a little over 1.5 seasons worth of being very good. Would cost a lot but now is the time to make a deal like this.

Brantley - wouldn’t really have wanted him either. Think we would have lost our pick to sign him too, and he is another injury prone guy. Big 2018 season though.

Gallo - believe it or not he is a good defender somehow, and the power profile coupled with a high walk rate makes him a good overall player. Also gives us some positional versatility with being able to play first.

WCDawg · January 2019

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Kirbstomper said:
Just saw an interesting read on projecting nick. @WCDawg if you want to get a look into my reasoning, this article does a much better job explaining than I ever would.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/1/23/18194127/projecting-2019-nick-markakis-atlanta-braves-steamer-iwag-projections

It seems very convoluted to me.

Thanks for reading. Yeah sometimes when you get into a fairly deep statistical analysis it gets pretty convoluted. But again that’s a good representation of my opinions.

@WCDawg said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@TNDawg71 said:

@Kirbstomper said:

@WCDawg said:

@Bankwalker said:
Markakis hit .323 pre-all star and .258 post. .234 in his last 30 games. 62 vs 31 RBIs before and after the break.

His .323 ba before the break was a career best by 15 points. He hit .308 before the break in 2010 and .301 in 2008. He had a CAREER first half last season, and then became a liability. It was more than “ebbs and flows”.

Let’s hope our young guys can protect him at the plate by getting on base. Albies was the key to Markakis getting off to a fast start last season. An uninspiring, if not disappointing signing. The money was the key. Probably still looking for OF help. At $4 mil Markakis can be a good bench piece if someone else is found near the deadline.

Average vs OBP, OBP gives a better picture of value. A single has slightly more value than a walk because it can bring in a runner from 2nd or 3rd, but getting on base and avoiding an out is critical in a game of outs and bases.

I still don’t know why you’re so caught up on single stats like OBP. What happened to you saying OPS was the best metric? Iirc you took that stance last time we visited markakis.

Nick was awesome first half last year, and not good second half. Frankly he hasn’t put up 2 WAR in 3/5 of his last seasons and hasn’t put up over 3 WAR since like 2016. I think I buy him as being something like 1-2 if he is healthy all year, but that’s still not great. This is probably something @Bankwalker would agree with from what I read. I buy into him being closer to 2nd half nick than 1st half nick this year.

The 6M to me is cheap enough to where it isn’t a bad deal financially. But the opportunity cost of potentially giving 130 starts to a below average player is huge. Like 2-3 wins huge. COF and catcher were the only two realistic spots we could upgrade our offense, and we got 2 old guys who are below average players in McCann and nick.

As I said earlier, love the Donaldson move. It probably didn’t improve us a ton because we had camargo, but good teams need good depth and camargo has always seemed like a candidate to be a utility infielder and Donaldson is a good candidate to be a stud. But that move doesn’t make any sense to me in the context that we regress at catcher and COF, and don’t add any front line starters.

I’m really really hoping we aren’t done yet this off season, our window is now and if you don’t supplant your core with above average players you potentially never win anything significant.

Because we signed Nick, who didn't we sign or who is sitting behind him that would be an upgrade? If there is a better option I expect them to start, but Nick is holding anyone back that is an upgrade, not at the price we just paid.

Pollack, Brantley, mccutchen, Hanniger and gallo are available in trades. All projected to be better this year. You could throw Harper in there too even if we never were a threat to sign him.

Maybe we couldn’t or didn’t want to match the free agent offers of those guys, but the good thing about prospects is they’re trade capital. We were led to believe this was going to be the year we go for it, we had plenty of money to spend, and we haven’t done so.

This is the time where you trade for a realmuto, a hanniger, a Kluber. Supplant the young core and try to win now

Pollock hasn't had a good season in awhile.
McCutchen would project slightly better, though he's not the player he once was.
Haniger has 1 good year, he might repeat, but it's a thin resume.
Gallo is the ultimate hit or miss guy, it's hr or bust, no thanks.
I'd like to have Brantley but so would a lot of teams.

Pollack - I don’t really want him as we would lose our second round pick this year and again, he is injury prone. But he is pretty good when healthy and has played a good amount for 2 years now.

Mccutchen - big fan of his, wish we got him in hindsight. Could have given us a leadoff option. Signed for a fairly reasonable deal and can still play a corner decently and hits well.

Haniger- true there is some risk in his profile due to smaller sample size. But he does have a little over 1.5 seasons worth of being very good. Would cost a lot but now is the time to make a deal like this.

Brantley - wouldn’t really have wanted him either. Think we would have lost our pick to sign him too, and he is another injury prone guy. Big 2018 season though.

Gallo - believe it or not he is a good defender somehow, and the power profile coupled with a high walk rate makes him a good overall player. Also gives us some positional versatility with being able to play first.

Markakis's 4 years with Atlanta have been better than his last 4 years with Baltimore.
His 4 year BA in Atlanta his .284, his career average is .288. His OBP average over 4 years is the second best 4 year period of his career. He's averaging 39.5 doubles and 172 hits for us. The only area he's down is HRs, and they never were a big part of his game anyway. I agree with advanced stats when they make sense to me, in this case, I don't see it.

What Braves should do now...

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