https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018
College football kicks off in one week. But the national champion was likely decided between 28 and 184 weeks earlier, on National Signing Day over the last four years.
Because there is a certain baseline of talent required to win the title.
I track this using my Blue-Chip Ratio statistic. Put simply, teams who win the title sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars over the previous four signing classes.
This has been true for about as far back as modern recruiting rankings can be tracked.
It’s easy to think of the stat as the percentage of four- and five-stars signed by a team, out of total signees. Generally, teams whose signees are less than 50 percent blue-chips over the previous four years can’t be considered national title contenders.
Before we look at 2018’s updated rankings, it’s worth it to add a disclaimer:
This metric is quite useful for determining which teams have signed elite talent. It is not the most useful for differentiating between bad and below average teams, or below average and average. Some teams simply do not have much of a shot of signing elite prospects and instead try to find diamonds in the rough. That’s a strategy that can produce wins and conference titles, though perhaps not Playoff rings.
I think coaching and development are extremely important in college football. But talent acquisition is by far the most important element when trying to compete for the sport’s biggest prize. By NCAA rule, coaches get just 20 hours per week with their players. Only so much development can be done.
This year, we have 13 teams in the club.
2018 Blue-Chip Ratio Teams
Team Blue-Chips
Alabama 77%
Ohio State 76%
USC 71%
Georgia 69%
Florida State 67%
LSU 63%
Auburn 62%
Clemson 61%
Michigan 57%
Texas 55%
Oklahoma 53%
Penn State 53%
Notre Dame 51%
