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Braves Ongoing Season Comments Thread..
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Comments
Morning sports fans.
We're less than 3 weeks away from the open trade period. So what do we need ? who might we be looking at ?
I'm still digging the idea of going after Bumgarner if he's healthy and maybe Toronto's Giles as the closer. Madison has been a superb postseason pitcher and Giles is having an outstanding year as the closer on a bad team.
Thoughts.
Also to GeorgiaGirl. You're an excellent poster and I value your contributions to our little ongoing conversation. If everybody agreed on everything, what would be the value or the fun in that ? That goes for Kirb as well, please stick around.
Gotta say that I’ve enjoyed this thread quite a bit and I’ve learned a lot. I didn’t really care about baseball other than the playoffs before last season and this year I can count the number of games I’ve missed on both hands (only been to one, watch the rest on TV).
That being said, I’d be thrilled with Bumgarner depending on the price. Or lets just go all in and try to get DeGromm (im a big fan of his)
Damn this keyboard lag
Muffingod. All in is what it would take to get Philly to even consider letting DeGrom go. My guess is he's not available at almost any price. You can project him as a 10 year all star level SP.
A guy can dream right?
Muffingod, Absolutely, dream on.
Can’t get the above quote off, it is irrelevant to this post.
Ty @WCDawg I value your opinion as well. There’s no doubt that scoring runs and preventing runs is the name of the game we agree on that. We just disagree on the best ways to quantify run creation and run prevention.
When I say, in a more modern way, I don’t mean that ERA isn’t a tool to use, I mean that I overanalyze stuff and love doing it honestly, instead of letting it be an open and shut statement, like “he’s missing his spots more” (which I have doubt but while I can look at a lot of pitches, I can’t look at all of them). In reality like I said, statcast enables me too much with examples I gave earlier in the thread because I can look back at things even easier.
In the end of the story, Soroka said himself after he pitched vs the Tigers that (not word for word but close) that “the main difference was the hard hit balls they were getting off of me found grass this time instead of finding gloves”. I think I’ll buy him and not a man on the internet. Maybe he’s being too humble about how he did earlier with that kind of a statement, but because of the ability to look back being easier than it ever was with a website that has video of every single pitch now, the evidence of that is there and there were times where he is very much correct. Like that Cardinals sequence that I keep referring to. I don’t think Soroka “intentionally started missing” to everyone he faced in the 3rd inning. He lost his command and he was in trouble when he was down 2-0 to Goldy. Sure, he got out of it and ended up throwing 7 innings of 0 run ball, but on 2-1, he missed his spot on a sinker and was lucky more than good that it was a missile right to Ozzie instead of one into the outfield with 2 runs scoring. A pitcher can’t control where the ball goes once it’s hit off him.
Yes, I’m being aggravating, but I’m not talking **** about Soroka, I’m just maybe perhaps being Debbie Downer-esque. There are folks that believe he’s going to be an ace in the future. I don’t think he’s going to be. Maybe an ace for this team, but in the world of MLB, he’s going to be viewed more as a #1 starter (top 30 guy), then a true ace pitcher. To be honest, Touki Toussaint and Ian Anderson are probably the last shots at a homegrown true ace of this crop. Everyone else’s upside is what I pretty much said of Soroka. A potential top 30’er, but not that dominant ace.
I feel like ERA is a meh way to analyze what has happened, and not a great way to project forward. Mainly for the reasons you kind of allude to, pitchers can’t really control BABIP and sequencing. As good as soroka was early on, a whole lot of his run prevention was due to luck. And now that his luck has been less good and the league has adjusted to him, he is having it a bit tougher in terms of ERA. But I would bet his FIP has remained fairly steady.
also think you may be selling soroka short. He is a top 30 guy now (borderline top 10 in FIP this year). If we say an ace is like a top 10 guy, I wouldn’t count him out. I do see why you are saying that, he doesn’t strike guys out at an elite level. But he does have a decent k%, great BB%, and strong HR prevention. On top of having the profile to eventually go a for a lot of innings, that seems like a fair bet to be an “ace”, though you’re right it is doubtful he will ever be sherzer.
GeorgiaGirl I have absolutely zero doubt that Soroka's success was due to amazing movement on every pitch he threw and command of all of them. To point, he didn't give up his 1st HR till around his 9th start. That is because nobody could make square contact on the ball. Since then he's given up 4 HRs, not bad, but not special either. The reason for this is without command of the pitches with huge movement he's throwing more relatively straight and flat pitches the get the ball over the plate. This allows hitters to sit and wait for good pitches to hit, which was a futile approach earlier in the season. I'm betting almost everybody who has watched him all season with a discerning eye sees these things.
In my opinion if you end up being correct on Soroka's career it won't be because of your evaluation. It will be because there have been far fewer in the Maddux mold than the Scherzer mold for reasons. That is because it takes more skill and consistency to maintain excellence when you're reliant on brains and skill and don't have the 100 mph safety net.
Edit. It's maddening to have letter not appear, I have to constantly edit because of it, and even editing isn't working well.
Kirb. I disagree with some of your last post, but I agree wit quite a bit as well.
I have heard Stroman is someone’s the Braves are asking about alongside with Giles. Goal is to not lose the big 4 prospects especially Anderson.
Ender’s rehabilitation stint will be over soon, it’s going to be interesting to see what the Braves do with him. We have Ender, Demeritte, and Duvall in the outfield at Gwinnett right now, all three should have some trade value. With all our pitching prospects and the outfielders in AAA that aren’t in our long-term plans, we should be able to make some trades for a starter and bullpen help that don’t include our top young pitchers or Pache and Waters. Of all the possible targets I’ve seen mentioned so far, I’d prefer Bumgarner and Smith from SF (if the price was reasonable). A front-line starter with World Series experience and a left-handed closer would be great additions, even if we only get them for the rest of this season.
Lots of chatter about Grienke (sp?). Control for 2 years and the Braves could basically just buy him right now if they wanted to. Immediate top line starter.
@cory430 what’s the price for Grienke?? Have you heard what’s the asking price is?