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Options
Comments
I trade, or used to before the RE market came back, Elliot Wave. I just look at the picture. I'm not a counter or a Bob Prechter guy, counting waves is great if you like to lose money. I've stared at enough charts to take trades relying on intuition for the most part. A lot of EW is useless, but the best thing I've found is you know exactly when you are wrong.
Very short term. We bomb their oil fields then it's game over
This is the internet, sir. I’m in it for the memes.
That's..depressing. I feel you. But it's not as bad as people trading based on astro cycles(yes that's a thing).
This is a great thread!
Never gonna happen
Not a chance
Dying to post my feelings on this but I know I'd be banned for life. Then I' d have to sneak back in as@BojanglesInsider and lose all my DVs and......oh wait....never mind
Trump said all is well, but wait there's more
A Boeing 737 in Iran bound for Ukraine crashes immediately after take off.
Shortly before this the FAA issued an emergency restriction over Iranian airspace.
China followed with an emergency restriction for their own flights after the 737 crashed.
I am ready for the whipsaw
Crypto currency?
I don't touch it just because I can't track the fundamentals with any confidence. I'd be almost entirely price action dependent in trading it...that's a big no bueno for me.
But glancing at BTCUSD particularly I'm seeing a retest of 10k on the cards. If it correlates to safe-haven trades then that actually coincides with what I'm positioning for with some USD & JPY pairs, so if I were more of a gambling man than I already am.....
@MackDawg Don't let these events effect your portfolio. Unless you're trading options... Plenty of traders will be in panic mode tomorrow and will be buying futures very high. People who react correctly will make tons of money off of idiots like that. If the conflict becomes more long term, look into aerospace or defense... it'll take off.
Thanks man I'm keeping that in mind and am managing the risk accordingly, I hope.
Most of the capital's in FX spot until June. Heavily consolidated orders between 142-144 on GBPJPY because USD strength in risk-off or risk-on has been reaallly inconsistent as of late, the fact that USD wasn't really appreciating much despite the tensions with Iran was not anticipated and a sign that USD likely wasn't going to balance out as a risk-off asset through Q1. More long term, in any scenario of a China phase 1 deal signed or not I'm anticipating USD strength plus EUR, GBP weakness after the reality of EU stubbornness in negotiating with the British becomes blatantly obvious, again. And I'm not convinced that the EU economy has escaped the cyclical weakness that's been observed for the past 1-2 years. The pressure is on the ECB and the British economy isn't exempt, they need a trade deal with the EU so BOE will feel pressure if the GBP appreciates much more.
I see you focus a lot on FX, that's really cool, never gotten into it much. And I'd expect GBP to appreciate more but to an unknown limit... and then it will rerate after all of the brexit negotiations and things are over, it will normalize. I'm sure of it
Think markets are going to react to Trump's press conference either way, not an options trader but if I was would be very locked in today
Anything but an expert, I don't do day trading, however the handful of stocks I do own, I watch for certain trends especially around dividend announcements and payouts in which I can sell and buy back a couple of days later when things settle out. Things like Iran do obviously affect and can be beneficial to watch every day as well.
At the very least if I was planning to buy in the near future, when things are dropping is a good time to pull the trigger. If I believe in a stock then when it drops I typically buy more.
Iran deliberately attempted to avoid casualties but still ended up accidentally hitting that Ukranian passenger plane that took off from Iran. Sad..
still of the mind that Iran will use their proxies in the region to avoid direct conflict and the JPY will whipsaw around act->response events which will present JPY buying opportunities. After consolidation up to around mar-apr, JPY will rally ahead of other safe-haven assets before the US presidential election. if the algo projections are correct.
Anyone know offhand what the price of an ATM long VIX Straddle was yesterday? Curious as to whether or not the premium was cost prohibitive.
@LBCoach might know. I'm sidelined on US equities until after the US presidential election.