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Braves Ongoing Season Comments Thread..
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Maddux not as great in the playoffs though. I’d take Smoltz first
Kasey. During the time The Yankees were winning titles and keeping The Braves from doing so Maddux and Glavine were concurrently tied for the longest streak of consecutive postseason starts of going at least 7 innings and giving up 2 or fewer runs in MLB history.
I know it's hard to reconcile, but it's fact. I still can't grasp how the team won just a single World Series during that 15 year run.
Totally reject the premise a bad defense affects unearned runs more than earned runs. Based on what you looked at it makes sense, because you used team errors as a defensive stat. This however ignores range, arm strength, etc.
They are 24th in terms of errors like you said, but dead last in terms of runs saved. They’ve given up 40 more runs than an average defensive team already this year. This stat takes in shifts. This stat accounts for errors, range, arm strength and all the other things you could think of. It isn’t perfect but it is the best we have.
You are right that maybe this stuff will even out over time. That makes sense to me, I checked and you are right that they actually have had good defenses in the past. But in the current year it has probably adversely affected him more than you are giving credit for. Especially since he is such a ground ball pitcher.
Long story short, Thor has way underperformed his peripherals this year, which say you’d expect his ERA to be about a 0.7 points lower than it actually is (FIP of 3.65 vs ERA of 4.35). This means he has been “unlucky”, meaning he has had bad ball in play luck and bad sequencing. Some of this is normal bad luck (low strand rate) and some of this is his defense.
I also recognize this is my way of looking at stats and trying to separate out the variance, which isn’t your way of doing it. I just want to advocate that he is still a really good pitcher even if he isn’t 2016 Thor now and I would be happy if he magically appeared on our roster.
Also just to triple post, there are some guys that consistently out perform or underperform their FIP numbers for whatever reason. For example Julio Teheran always performs better than his peripherals would suggest for whatever reason. Literally if you guys know why please tell the Braves so they can figure it out haha.
Thor has always underperformed them, so it may be more likely he is a true 3.9-4 ERA guy this year than he is a 4.3 or 3.6 guy. Somewhere in the middle is probably a smart bet.
just wanted to add that in to give you all the info I pulled up and saw.
GD I hate not being able to delete when I have a mess like that last post. I went ahead and posted just to get the crap out of my way.
Ok. I hate when our pitchers can't throw a f...ing strike. I turned off the game when Sobotka walked a hitter and loaded the bases with an MVP candidate in the batters' box. It is hard to understand why it is so hard for professionals to throw strikes. As a fan it is absolutely torment to watch.
Get out of the bullpen if you can’t throw strikes. No business being in there
The next batter hit a grand slam, it's ridiculous.
Another ridiculous thing. Our 22 year old 5'8'' 165lb 2nd baseman has 4 grand slams. Our 29 year old 6'5'' power hitting 1st baseman has 0......nada ! That seems almost impossible. You'd think Freddie would have at least 5 just by sticking his bat out.
Freddie is frustrating sometimes. Sometimes I wish he would sell out for more homers. He’s got plenty of power but never seems to try to elevate and pull it. He just doesn’t try to hit dingers in a way that someone like Donaldson does.
still take Freddie all day every day, but I’m just saying.
Another thing. Sobotka needs to be sent down. I don't know his situation as far as options go but the guy doesn't have the control needed to be effective at this level. His ERA is now tittering around the 6.00 line.
The Braves' lead will shrink to 4.5 games after tonight with 2 more games in DC this week. We could end up struggling to hold on to 1st place in a short time if games are thrown away because pitchers can't throw freaking strikes when they have to.
Hoping we have a reason to send him down soon. Say, by Wednesday?
Our, The Nationals (sorry ya'll) bullpen is historically bad. I'm still hoping we make a move for a quality reliever but I don't know if our farm system can sustain it. We've overworked our only quality reliever, who after tonight's game will have thrown more pitches already than he did all of last year, which puts more pressure on our starters. Max is hurt and back injuries can be tricky.
I say all that to say that I do believe the Nats can catch the Braves but EVERYTHING will have to break our way.
And one second before I hit send our closer gives up a bomb to Culberson.
Yep, we need a closer and adding Jackson to the set up crew will strengthen the entire pen. Jackson vs Sobotka, that's a very good trade off.
It used to be you had power hitters and hitters for average. Now there are a lot of hitters who do both at a high level. With FF's natural strength and bat control he should be one of those guys.
It's a gnarly street party kind of night.
I’ve been drinking which makes me more snarky than usual
Snark away.
…..speaking of California dreaming. Madison Bumgarner is still the guy I want most. He has a 2.70 ERA for July and he's finally looking like the MB of 2016.
There aren't many if any starting pitchers over the past 10 years I'd start over a healthy Bumgarner in the postseason. The Giants are only 3 games off the pace for a wild card and playing their best ball of the year though. His name is still being batted around as potentially moving but I don't see how it would be in The Giants' best interest.
Killed it in Augusta for the greenjackets too