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Braves Ongoing Season Comments Thread..
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Comments
I kind of looked at this real quick and dirty. I'm not really an expert in statistic or analyzing sensitivity of data, maybe someone on here is smart and could help.
What I saw is that team OBP doesn't seem to be a better indicator of team success than anything else you could think of (I did runs, not wins since pitching should be ignored in this context). This doesn't really give any answers but kind of makes me curious how you could parse this out in a smart way.
OBP = consistency. The great Yankees teams in the late 90s didn't have a 40 HR hitter and they weren't the highest scoring teams. What they had was a relentless lineup. They weren't as prone to draughts because getting on base at a high rate as a team is more conducive to avoiding draughts and beating postseason pitchers than being prolific HR hitters.
The 2 semi dynasties over the past 23 years were The Yankees and Red Sox. Those championship teams had higher ranked OBP than HRs almost every year, and all 9 were very dominant at getting on base.
Yankees' 5 title teams OBP. 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st____ HRs. 16th, 7th, 13th, 8th, 1st
Boston. OBP 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st.____ HRs. 5th, 18th, 6th, 9th
That is 9 titles with 6 being 1st in OBP, 2 being 2nd in OBP and 1 being 4th in OBP
What that shows is to be consistently successful in postseason play being dominant in OBP is more important to being dominant in hitting HRs/power.
This is why I harp on building with players from 1 thru 8 who get on base at high rates. It's very, very tough to shut that type of offense down and they are generally better against top pitchers like you face in postseason because they are the most skilled hitters.
I give Bill James credit for looking at actual results as opposed to launch angle, exit velocity, bat speed, etc. Not that I'm opposed to measuring those things, as long as they aren't confused with actual production.
But those things equal actual production. Its why they are measuring them.
I'm a huge believer in the value of high OPS from top to bottom of the lineup.
This is how Bill James changed the game.
Baseball is a game of out avoidance. There is no clock. Theoretically if a team never makes an out they will continue to score forever.
Common sense tells you if you avoid making outs better than your opponent, and when you do get hits they are homers instead of singles, your chances of winning go way way up.
Seems simple buts its amazing how long it took for teams to figure this out.
It's 27 outs in increments of 3 to get around 4 squared bases more times than your opponent. 1st player, don't make an out, get on base. 2nd player, see 1st player.
If you think of baseball as a 3 dimensional board game it's not complicated at all in it's formula. The various skills needed to accomplish the specifics at this level are rare though.
I well recall facing those Yankee teams, particularly in 1998 when we won more regular season games but their lineup was so skilled and consistent as hitters they just kept coming and kept coming. Don't get me wrong, you need power too. The difference is you can have the 10th best power numbers and be 1st in OBP and you'll beat a team in a 7 game series that is 1st in power and 10th in OBP more times than not.
Another blast by Acuna. This time into the visitors "pitching area". Really cool. And Freddy's running from first to home with a great slide. I get a lil bit nervous when Freddy tries to score. But he showed a lot of speed for being a big fella on that play.
I well recall facing those Yankee teams, particularly in 1998 when we won more regular season games but their lineup was so skilled and consistent as hitters they just kept coming and kept coming.
Maddux started one of those WS games. He was pitching well but early in the game his pitch count was pretty high. That Yankee team could grind any pitcher, even one of Maddux's caliber, into the ground by forcing them to throw pitch after pitch. That team was incredibly skilled in not making outs.
Pretty sure they didn't have a 30hr hitter either. Lots of guys in the 20's though with extremely high OPS numbers. Paul Oneil types. Plus they had a lights out bullpen.
Maybe the best team I've seen in my lifetime.
P.S. Usually a pretty good indicator the Braves are going to have a good night offensively when they force the opposing SP to throw 15-20 pitches to get through the first.
I couldn't recall if it was no 40 homer season through their whole run or no 30 homer season. Paul O'Neill fought on every single pitch. Torrie called him the heart of those teams. He was more the leader of those teams than Jeter. So right in the heart of the PEDs era it was a get on base and move him over team that dominated in postseasons.
Not looking good today for the Bravos but they have already accomplished what they needed to after the first two games.
Today doesn’t exactly give me warm and tinglies about not making a trade for a starter.
Unless they make a deal its gonna be Keuchal, Soroka, then some combination of Tehran, Fried and Folty if he makes a reappearance in the playoffs.
Maybe Kyle Wright or Wilson too.
Will must likely lose but is good to see:
Ender swinging a good bat (it is the 2nd half of the season after all)
Johan - had some good AB's late last night and got some contact today. Just needs some AB's like most players do. That could help a lot in the near future til we get our regular lineup back.
I think Newcomb is being groomed for ultra long relief like happens often in playoff games where a manager can't just take the hit and move to the next game. I think Tehran might start the 2nd and possibly even the opening game of the postseason. It will come down to who is pitching best at the time and maybe the manager's gut if it's close.
Any news on Ron Jr's neck ?
As of tonight it's thought to be ok, just some soreness. Hopefully there's nothing more to it.