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He was never going to be good defensively at short, still think he is a good defensive 3B. As far as offense, he overperformed his xwoba in 2017 and 2018 by a good bit (expected weighted on base average, based on exit velocity and launch angle and is thought to be the best measure of a hitters quality of contact). This means he was “lucky” in that his offensive outcomes were better than what they should have been based on contact quality.
This year all his offensive numbers are down and his xwoba reflects that. I guess my main point is really that the baseball card stats in 2017 and 2018 shouldn’t be considered his normal value because he had to get pretty lucky to get those.
Separating out luck, his quality of contact implies he was an average ish hitter in 2017 and 2018. Which combined with his good defense at 3B, and his positional adjustment for playing a position typically occupied by guys that hit really well, all culminates in him being around a fringe average type MLB starter in 2017 and 2018. Not bad, but certainly not the kind of guy we should build around. He needs to figure out how to be good in his utility player role because that’s probably what his talent suggests he should be.
During that 9th inning botched double play last night was I the only one thinking that Dansby makes that play at least 9 times out of 10? We need him back. Hated hearing about the setback with his heel. Culberson and Camargo have value as bench/utility pieces but neither is in Swanson's league defensively.
When the Dodgers come in we’ll find out what we’re made of. see if they can stand the pressure.
That wasn’t the type of play I think we miss dansby most. Frankly I make that play 9/10 times, and both dansby and camargo are much better than me. IMO We miss dansby way more on play that show how little range camargo has at shortstop. He just doesn’t really belong there.
Its not a super big deal because he isn’t supposed to be on the roster to be a starting shortstop. He’s a utility guy that can eat innings at short to spell the starter. We don’t have any legitimate SS prospects to call up in his place, so we are having to suffer through camargo.
I'm guessing Johan makes it 9 times out of 10 as well. Last night happened to be the 10th time. Plus, 9 times out of 10 that play is not overturned on appeal.
Can a case be made that with the larger sample size of the 2 previous years, this year is the aberration and he's just been "unlucky".? He did well for 2 full seasons - to me that is what is to be expected from him, not this year's "slump".
The advanced stats would say no, but wouldn't be surprised if the truth was somewhere in between, especially if there is a lingering issue, like Dansby's wrist.
Well sure, he has about as many at batsthis year as in 2017. This year he hasn’t had the same luck as in 2017-18 I described, but he has also been a lot worse in terms of contact quality.
2017: xwoba - 304. Woba - 331
2018: xwoba - 310. Woba - 346
2019: xwoba - 267. Woba - 263
I want to note to less informed people that the “gap” between woba and xwoba is what I call “luck”. Xwoba is how you should produce based on your hitting, woba is how you actually produced. So if you hit a lot of bloopers that somehow find a hole, you will have a higher woba than xwoba. If you hit a lot of screaming liners that get caught, your woba will be lower than your xwoba. This was a reason I kept telling you guys Donaldson was hitting well, even before his numbers really jumped this year. His xwoba was a good bit higher than is actual woba, and we know that one of the best predictor of future results is xwoba. It’s a better predictive tool than actual woba in small samples.
An MLB average woba and xwoba is about 320 or so (it is scaled to look like OBP). I would guess Camargos true hitting ability is like a 290 to 300 xwoba. Maybe not quite average for an MLB starter, but good enough for a versatile switch hitting bench bat.
Same old Braves!
Is Culberson on the DL? Why isn’t he at short right now?
Also, let’s call up Drew Waters to fill in for Ender.