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Good info - thanks for sharing...the only element I might add to this summary is the demographics of the positive cases which correlate to the severity of the disease (ie - younger tend to be mild/asymptomatic vs elderly who may be more likely to be hospitalized).
Much has been made of a spike of cases in Arizona this past week, but a closer look at the #s indicate that the majority are 29-44 year olds and that while tests and cases have spiked with the expansion of testing availability the past several weeks there, the # of hospitalizations (indicative of the most severe cases) has plummeted.
Not minimizing increases in case #s at all (!) - but I do think that if we conceptually agree that a movement towards herd immunity is critical to stabilize/slow down the pandemic, that seeing spikes of younger people becoming infected but not getting so sick as to require hospitalization is a positive step in that sense (independent of the fact that no one wishes any one person get sick, obviously).
Reaching herd immunity without a vaccine and not exposing high risk groups would require everyone under 50 to get infected.
Not sure where you got the AZ hospitalizations from but everything thing I've seen suggests they have also hit record levels.
Additionally in AZ the %positive has increased while with increased testing it should be declining. The testing narrative in most states where cases are increasing is false! Through yesterday FL has increased average daily tests in June (v May) by 33% which should increase cases by a max of 3-5% (if random/preventative testing is being done those should only by positive less than 1% of the time) but daily cases have actually increased by 106%!
Yeah - didn't say it's close to being reached...just that it can't be achieved without having large segments of the population exposed; and that the skewing of the recent cases in several states is directionally positive at a macro level as they tend to be asymptomatic/mild symptoms (ie - raising the # of people with antibodies without further spiking hospitalizations or death rates).
To be clear - I'm not saying case counts aren't spiking or that it's a trend that doesn't have to be watched closely...just that there's a consideration for positive rates relative to tests and age group as an indicator of increasing/decreasing risk as a public policy consideration.
My source is the AZ DoH Dashboard which is actually one of the best/easiest to navigate that I've seen during this saga. Click on Hospitalizations and the trend is heading toward zero at the same time tests and cases are spiking (testing has been expanded beyond symptomatic/sustpected patients as of early May while the 29-44 demographic is nearly 50% of all new cases )
This is what I see,
Clicking on Covid specific metrics (bottom right) shows a marked increase since the beginning of June
Den - do you see any correlation across the board - and then any recent change - between case rate going up and hospitalization rate going up, specifically is there a lag? Our SC case rate avg has really gone up over the past 7-10 days, but has re-leveled where it is. That's rate seems to have outpaced our hospitalization rate increase considerably (it has gone up a little, but no where near the same rate - from mid 400's to around 525 now). Curious to hear if this is the norm, and if there seems to be a week or two week lag there. I would think they wouldn't be, but nothing surprises me anymore.
Recently our daily case rate more than doubled almost overnight (250-350 avg to about 600-700) but stayed right there. No curve really. I know our sample size may not allow for perfect curves though.
Positive news is that our death rate has been trending down all the while. Our last week average there is around 5-6. Maybe we'd are getting better at treating this thing.
I read that as there are a lot more asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people in the community than originally believed.
I can say that I know 10 people who have tested positive varying in age from 30's to 70's. No symptoms for any of them.
I haven't tracked hospitalizations except in Florida due to there being no readily available source that summarizes this by state. The thing is early on with limited testing NY for instance was only testing those with severe symptoms so hospitalization was instantaneous. As testing expands the lag will increase and I seem to recall a lag of 10-12 days between initial symptoms and hospitalization with a further 8-10 days lag between that point and possible death although that varies considerably (some died while being admitted while others were on ventilators for 20 days).
The treatment has definitely improved with experience (lessons learned) and better meds. I also think the use of masks may be leading to better survival rates as "dosage" of the virus is lower. After all many vaccines used to rely on deliberately injecting live virus at very low rates.
As of today I have started tracking SC, NC, AZ, MS and AL in addition to the original states but only have daily historical data on cases and deaths so can't look for testing rates and % positive on these additions as yet other than YTD and daily.
FWIW - Florida recorded 3,207 additional cases today which is a new record. The 7 day average was 600-700 mid May ending the month at 726. The 7 day average began increasing 6/3 and has set new highs for 16 straight days. on 6/4 the average was 985 (up 259), 6/11 it was 1,269 ( up an additional 284) and today is now 2,408 (a further 1,139). A classic example of how exponential growth can quickly get out of hand.
Gotta tell you,@Denmen185 , between the numbers crunching you do on recruiting and what you're doing on this, I'm officially nominating you for "essential member" status. Thanks for all of it.
Most cases since May 8. Looking more and more like the second wave is already here
Ours in SC hit a new high today as well. Not sure if I am more troubled by the virus or the impending reaction to it.
Hopefully it means a recommitment to masks and social distancing rather than shutting all business down again.