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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
This really would only affect a week of classes, but if I was a student I wouldn't hate it.
Also, plenty of students will be back for the Tech game if football game attendance is not restricted.
Plenty of bad news out there today. Cases up. Deaths up. Positive % testing up.
if you don’t have a mask, get one and put it on. You might save a life and stimulate the economy in the meantime.
still shocking to me how few people have masks on indoors.
EDIT: If they said they cancel sports for 2020 unless the entire population wore a mask, everyone would have one on yesterday...including Dana White and others who choose to not wear one
Things are definitely going in the wrong direction. It frustrates me all the more because the solution was in our reach. Italy and other countries that got hit hard now have infection rates per capita 5 times lower than the US. I want our economy to be healthy and because of that i have begged many to wear a mask to no avail. Not wearing a mask will do more to kill our economy than anything else one can do. Please help our elderly by wearing. Please help small business owners like me by wearing a mask. Please help us have a Georgia football season by wearing a mask.
Perhaps Italy just went through theirs all at once. The whole point of all this was to slow it down, not prevent it. It was coming whether we liked it or not. It will have to run it's course. Some people will fight it off along with the other million viruses they fight off every day and not notice it. Some people will get a nasty cold. Some will die. Such is the circle of life. That doesn't mean not to keep taking precautions and play it as safe as you reasonably can. Just don't pretend like this could of been prevented. I also knew people would become less diligent over time, because it's our nature. We get complacent and slip.
NY had a quicker outbreak out the gate than the rest of the country. What do their state numbers look like? I wonder if they're slowing down any? Not being sarcastic, I'm really asking.
Other questions, are there more cases because there are more tests? This might not be all of the story, but I bet it's some of it.
Is the death number they're giving accumulative? Or is it a deaths per day kind of thing?
I tend to not look to much at the national stats, because I very much know how they can be manipulated. What I'm seeing on the ground is more cases, but less severe. Only a handful are in that downward spiral that's difficult to pull out of. Yes it's more, yes it was expected, no I'm not really worried. Not about the virus at any rate.
New York is one of 10 states trending downward but i dont expect that to stay that way.
On testing, there is some increase in known cases due to increased testing but testing actually decreases spread in general, it is one of the criteria for reopening that has been ignored. The US ranks below many countries at 89318 tests per million people having been completed in 2020. Harvard estimated a testing capacity of 5 million per day needed as one of their key metrics in its roadmap to recovery (https://ethics.harvard.edu/covid-roadmap) and we arent close to that.
It's pretty simple. The virus doesn't care if we pretend it is going away or if we are unaware of it because we dont test enough. All that matters in our fight against it is reducing its ability to spread. Things that help achieve this goal are testing, face masks and social distancing.
America has been told that testing is making us look bad but it is the failure to contain Covid19 which is what makes the USA look terrible. Only Brazil has a higher per capita infection rate than the Us right now and our infection rate is 5 times that of Europe. And the USA is headed in the wrong direction as Europes numbers are slowly headed down and our numbers are going up.
I need the economy to be strong. I want America to be strong. Testing and wearing face masks make us strong. Right now we look like a bunch of 2nd amendment hating pacifists in an armed home invasion.
I feel like I was shown two graphs in March. One that had a steep curve up and down, and one that was much flatter but much longer. Then, I feel like I was told that we want the second graph, because the first graph would overwhelm hospitals and people who would otherwise survive would die because of this. But I also can read graphs, and the second one showed infections lasting a long, long time - the phrase was "run its course." In most places, the first curve didn't come. I was under the impression this was a good thing.
Now, as we look at much of Europe - what they went through, and where they are - we see them on the back of the "bad" curve. And now they are "doing better?" Shouldn't they be better now because of the horror of the previous months?
So, was there a third curve, a secret curve, that didn't go up fast OR last a long time? Never saw that graph, guys. If we wanted to be Europe, we could have never shut anything down. A ton of folks would have died, but we would be farther down the graph right now. I am confused at the surprise everyone seems to have for an Option B graph I saw in March...
@CaliforniaDawg
It feels like you think wearing a mask is some sort of magic bullet. Is it helpful? Probably. Is it going to make the virus go away? Hardly.
Unfortunately, we live in a society that is so divided that if wearing a mask makes you appear to be of a certain political bent, many will not wear them regardless of the physical hazard. Be angry at those who seek to divide our country, not those who've fallen for the rhetoric. This is a clear sign of how destructive our political climate has become (in case other current events don't make that clear already). Our natural tendency is to say, "See, my side is right on this!" That only plays into the divider's schemes. Neither side is pure in motive or message. There is no moral high ground in choosing one or the other, only acceptance into the community you choose. There should be one community accepting of all opinions or many communities with mutual respect for the others which would really be like one inclusive community. We will never have that if we get **** into divisive rhetoric and allow frustrations to turn to hatred.
Just an observation from a dude in SC...
Outside of my home, I don't get within 6 feet of people anyway - ever. Seriously. I have actually paid attention over the past week and its NOT REALLY THAT HARD to stay that far away from people. Just stop, back up, and walk around. Change aisles. Stand back from the counter. Change sides of the road to the other sidewalk. If the parking lot is crowded, go to the other store.
I watched some youth club sports over the past week. I bet I didn't get within 15 feet of anybody. I was born to socially distance. I have a coach's voice - I can talk to you from 10 feet away and you can hear me just fine.
So I guess I am having a hard time understanding why everyone has to be all on top of each other all the time. Again, I have a mask with me at all times if the situation arises - but I haven't gotten it out this week. I am all for them if I have to be close to you - but I don't PLAN on getting THAT close to anybody. Can anyone relate to this? Just curious...
Europe has 40% more people than the US and a greater population density. The major issues occurred in Milan, Paris, Madrid and London. These are all major cities with high density and hence had similar issues to NYC. The reason that the EU is recording less than 5k cases/day compared with 30k in the US is that they had much more comprehensive lock-downs for far longer than the US. For instance the UK still hasn't opened hair salons and have just gone to restaurants being allowed to offer take-out. In many countries most people were not allowed to leave their homes for any reason. By comparison wrestling was deemed essential business in Florida and Lowes, Home Depot etc. were allowed to open to supply the construction industry that never closed. The restrictions in the NE US came closest to those in Europe (but still not as severe) and the cases there are declining as a result. The NE are the main states that have actually flattened the curve and their success is masking the potential disasters in the Southern states.
In summary, Europe and the NE US are on the back side of the flattened curve while the south is now on the front side of the curve which will soon not be flattenable unless meaningful action is implemented.
Every credible scientist says that the wearing of masks would drastically reduce the transmission so how can it be a divisive issue and who's doing the country a disservice.
Are these guys credible?
So, again, the graphs shown were crap, then. The two-outcome scenario that led to the decisions made were really not correct. There are actually 100+ different scenarios, none of which are predictable - even though the smartest people in the world on this subject said that these curves were correct, and outbreaks always follow them, etc.
And the "Southern states," that look nothing like these other places that you described, are "potential disasters," even though their population densities are completely different than MOST other places on the planet where it went sideways.
Let's take Albany, GA, as an example of a place that is typical of the south and IT DID get sideways. This happened with no testing, nobody knowing how to treat, and no one really knowing what they were dealing with until it had gotten out of hand. This is the scenario that you are predicting in 1000's of communities in "Southern states" moving forward. Even though the knowledge of what we are dealing with has improved greatly, as has testing. Even though the general population is washing their hands ALL THE TIME. Using hand sanitizer like a teenage boy uses AX body spray, has cut mass gatherings by about 90-95% and is (sometimes) wearing masks (not at an optimal rate, but there are some that are).
Again - the curves were wrong, then. The graphs. And you are predicting that Albany is about to repeat itself over and over. And, maybe (hopefully by accident) you used the term "Southern states" and left California out of your statement, which statistically is right there with the rest.
New York DID NOT flatten the curve, man. They got overrun - just like Albany - because it had spread before anyone had started any of the countermeasures.
Den - I love your info and your charts. This last post had a scent of "lean" to it, a scent of "doomsday" to it that normally doesn't exist in what you say.
And if you are wondering why A LOT OF PEOPLE are not listening to what is being sold to them, THIS IS WHY. I am an educated, (semi) rational, scientific leaning individual who tries to also use common sense as a blanket for all of this. And VERY LITTLE of what is told to me right now I believe. Especially statements that have a "lean" to them - intentional or not. I will give you a pass, but I feel like I have been handing out "passes" for months.
If anyone - on both sides - can't see why there is so much distrust with the "experts," then they are fooling themselves. I will listen to what the short guy says that's been doing this for administration after administration. At least when he is wrong, he owns up to it. That's about it.
Fox6 or WHO. The article was in May but was based on WHO position in March (very early on the learning curve during a time of critical shortage of masks). Updated WHO position:
Southern States in my definition includes Texas and California.
These are yesterday's reported numbers. Outside those 10 states the positive test rate was 4%. With close to 100 million people, the cases/infection rates from Cal, Florida Texas and Arizona are very troubling. California has just implemented mask wearing required any time outside.