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Comments

  • MarkBoknechtMarkBoknecht Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    "Because I don't want all these visitors from other states returning to New York and ruining our hard work". Geesh. Sounds a little McCarthy like.

  • CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Thanks Teddy. I can't find the post that really set me off. I really appreciate the effort you put into being fair and appreciate you sharing that.

  • DGDinNYCDGDinNYC Posts: 748 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Fair, thats not the best word choice. I apologize. But, it's a real concern not only of people from other states but New Yorkers who left to go places that are open and will bring the virus back with them. And remember when Rhode Island was putting stickers on NYC cars, or Florida was forcing New Yorkers to quarantine off the plane?

    However, I should say, Maine isn't all great, someone slashed my tires when we first got there. I couldn't figure out if it was because we had New York tags or are African American. Likely a bit of both.

  • CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I do not in any way understand your reference to McCarthy.

    New York endured an enormous sacrifice shutting down and flattening the curve on Covid19 - something they absolutely do not want to do again. Other states have escalating Covid19 cases and New York doesn't want them reigniting the virus in New York. Therefore they are trying to keep people from high infection rates from visiting New York.

    McCarthy used the accusation of communism, homosexuality and being a traitor against America to attack many including patriots like George Marshal, the Secretary of State who initiated the Marshal plan to fight Russia and communisim in Europe. McCarthy often made up these attacks and was one of the very few senators ever in history to be cenusred by the US Senate.

    In summary, you have a state trying to reduce the spread of a virus from states with docuemented and factually provable higher levels of the virus and you have a paranoid lunatic who saw communism everywhere and attacked everyone without any facts. I don't see any similarity at all.

  • MarkBoknechtMarkBoknecht Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Sorry. I shouldn't have used a comparison to a "paranoid lunatic". It just seems like we are taking this obligation to wearing masks too far.

    Someone said when I asked why I needed to wear a mask and responded "because you could k i l l me.

    But how can I k i l l you if I'm not sick?

    Look, I live in NE Georgia about 30 miles from Athens. Jackson county has about 80,000 residents in the whole county. And to date only about 10 fatalities have been reported. Eighty percent of residents here don't wear masks. A statistic probably repeated thousands of times in small town USA. But if I lived in New York, I'd probably act differently.

    Scientifically, my risk is low. I'm a healthy 67-year old with no underlying conditions. But if I lived in a big city like New York, I'm sure societal pressure would obligate me to wear one. So I would.

    And keep in mind that not all cases (and deaths) are reported the same. If they were, you wouldn't see such divergent mortality rates. Ga, Cal, Fl, Texas mortality rates of about 92-260 per 1mm people. NY/NJ around 1700 per mm people?

    Are we to assume that people living in NY or New Jersey are that much less healthy than the rest of the country? I think not.

    And while there is a "surge" in new cases, one has to consider other contributing factors: more testing, single cases being counted more than once, and more young people being counted -- whose risk of mortality from Covid is much lower.

    Mortality rates are low and dropping. 2200 new cases in Ga, but just 3 new deaths yesterday. So I see improvement.

    Hospitalizations OTH are increasing in some areas, but my sense is that many of those people will survive based on new therapies and the age and overall health of "new patients".

  • MarkBoknechtMarkBoknecht Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @DGDinNYC Dang man. That sucks. I'm sorry you were treated that way.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 29,710 mod

    death Reporting on weekends is notoriously low and already low on mondays. Death report today and tomorrow should show us the impact of these higher case count

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,503 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I live in Nassau county which has 1 death and a population of 100,000. I and my family always wear a mask when going out other than walking in ares that are not heavily traveled (mainly low traffic subdivisions).

    Regarding your comment that your county is statistically repeated thousands of time I would point out that a 99.9% probability of nothing happening repeated just 1,000 (singular) times means a 63% chance of failure somewhere. If you play golf it's like saying I can hit the ball through that tree - a tree with leaves is 95% air so you should be fine - don't try it as 95% to the power of 100 is 0.6% which is about right based on my golfing experience.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,503 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Exactly based on my 20 day lag my estimate is 4,000 deaths for Florida and 25,000 for the US for July. Friday numbers which are mainly reported Saturday were also low (administrative holiday in lieu of the 4th) so Saturday, Sunday and Monday were way under-reported.

    BTW my over/under for Georgia deaths for July would be 1,250-1,300.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 6,241 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    >>Mortality rates are low and dropping. 2200 new cases in Ga, but just 3 new deaths yesterday. So I see improvement.<<

    Agreed. I posted this on another thread, but I find it very interesting. The total active cases are up ~ 8-50X since mid to late March in the US, but the mortality numbers are only ~25% of the actual April numbers. (That accounts for the 2-4 week lag between symptoms and death). The actual death numbers have decreased very sharply (~25% of the April #s), but the ratio of deaths to cases has utterly collapsed. CV 19 is *far* less deadly now than it was in late winter (in the US). That's the good news; the bad news is that active cases are exploding, and as they mature we could get an uptick in deaths. Also, in S. hemisphere countries (in dead of winter) at higher latitudes and with significant cases, death rates are increasing sharply. The death rate appears to drop dramatically in summer and increase dramatically in winter. And by dramatically, I mean gargantuan-huge increases and decreases in mortality rates.

This discussion has been closed.