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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
death Reporting on weekends is notoriously low and already low on mondays. Death report today and tomorrow should show us the impact of these higher case count
I live in Nassau county which has 1 death and a population of 100,000. I and my family always wear a mask when going out other than walking in ares that are not heavily traveled (mainly low traffic subdivisions).
Regarding your comment that your county is statistically repeated thousands of time I would point out that a 99.9% probability of nothing happening repeated just 1,000 (singular) times means a 63% chance of failure somewhere. If you play golf it's like saying I can hit the ball through that tree - a tree with leaves is 95% air so you should be fine - don't try it as 95% to the power of 100 is 0.6% which is about right based on my golfing experience.
Exactly based on my 20 day lag my estimate is 4,000 deaths for Florida and 25,000 for the US for July. Friday numbers which are mainly reported Saturday were also low (administrative holiday in lieu of the 4th) so Saturday, Sunday and Monday were way under-reported.
BTW my over/under for Georgia deaths for July would be 1,250-1,300.
>>Mortality rates are low and dropping. 2200 new cases in Ga, but just 3 new deaths yesterday. So I see improvement.<<
Agreed. I posted this on another thread, but I find it very interesting. The total active cases are up ~ 8-50X since mid to late March in the US, but the mortality numbers are only ~25% of the actual April numbers. (That accounts for the 2-4 week lag between symptoms and death). The actual death numbers have decreased very sharply (~25% of the April #s), but the ratio of deaths to cases has utterly collapsed. CV 19 is *far* less deadly now than it was in late winter (in the US). That's the good news; the bad news is that active cases are exploding, and as they mature we could get an uptick in deaths. Also, in S. hemisphere countries (in dead of winter) at higher latitudes and with significant cases, death rates are increasing sharply. The death rate appears to drop dramatically in summer and increase dramatically in winter. And by dramatically, I mean gargantuan-huge increases and decreases in mortality rates.
A neighbor of mine works in the medical field and due to an outbreak everyone got tested that worked with her. She was positive, and throughout the next few weeks never had a single symptom. Comparatively a guy I worked with just died from it, tested positive over one weekend dead by the next.
Many wear a mask when they don’t feel sick because there’s a genuine chance that you could have the virus and not know it. It’s a selfless thing to try and protect others, and wearing a mask when you go to the grocery store isn’t really much of a personal sacrifice to make for me.
Not alone.
Mark,
Your second post helps me understand a bit more where you are coming from. Thanks.
I'd say a few things.
How can you spread the virus if you are not sick? Seriously? This virus can be spread by you even when you don’t have symptoms. You may not know you are sick.
Folks keep throwing numbers out as if to say this virus is meaningless. What I can’t get past is why did Communist China, then Europe, and half the world shut down if this is meaningless?
Update.
im admitted to the hospital. I’ve done X ray, EKG, CT scan, and Nuclear perfusion test. Think i May have Pulmonary Embolisms. Covid is attacking my organs and not so much my breathing. My 02 sat is actually 100. I’m trying to keep in good spirits. Waiting for test results. I’ll keep you dawg fans updated.
Ignore yesterday as the numbers reported Sat, Sun, Mon are actually numbers reported to DOH Fri, Sat, Sun when most all administrative staff were off hence under-reported. There were 23 reported today. The 7 day average cases as of June 17th was 864 so just using raw number reported today the mortality rate is 23/864 or 2.7%. Tomorrow will tell if this is a good number or not as the holiday impact is "smoothed". Today's 7 day case average is 2,741 a new high suggesting that the deaths July 27th will be 73. I have used 69 in my forecast (2.5%) but would point out that the positive rate so far in July is 13.2% compared with 6% in June . This suggests that cases are much higher than identified due to inadequate testing. The deaths could in fact be closer to 100 per day come the last week of July.
Reminder - improved (wider) testing -> higher cases found, lower positive rate reported and less severity in cases -> lower death rate per case.
Put yourself in the doctors hands. i am very much hoping that you get well soon. My brother has some issues ( not Covid) and said today he is making 2 steps forward and 1 step back and seemed disillusioned with his progress. i told him that a slow recovery beats a fast alternative. Don't ever give up, just get well!
Praying for you, fellow dawg.
I've done the PE thing - it sucks but you can come back from it for sure.
Fight this thing off! We are all behind you!
Absolutely. 🙏🙏
Praying for you! I hope you get well soon.
Please give us a link where Hannity said it was all made up. He said it was politized and the death rate was low. Even your great Faucci was telling everyone to do on cruises be normal etc. in March. You are showing your true colors with that one statement. Pretty sure I saw Pelosi walking around China Town telling people not to worry. Funny how you single out Hannity.