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I'm confused by the data. IF you look at the site, it also says it took Italy 11 days to double the number of deaths, Spain took 8 days and the US took 5 days (UK took 5 and France 4). The slope of the line for Italy looks much steeper than the US and yet the time to double the deaths is 1/2 for the US. I can't reconcile this data - both from the same site.
It's per million people. It's not a straight number of deaths. We are about 5Xs bigger than Italy in population. I think people sometime forget the USA is the 3rd biggest population on the planet.
I think there will be 80,000 US deaths in April and will peak 4/29. Sorry was replying to @CaliforniaDawg. Somehow other quote appeared (fat finger) and can't delete.
US curve similar to Italy 21 days lag.
We sterilize the entrance and kitchen area every night. Things often overlooked by others are outside and inside handles of front and garage door and security keypad. These are often touched prior to washing hands upon entry.
That's 2,600 deaths every single day. We are not Italy. Italy is an outlier.
Yes, i understand that. My challenge is the relative steepness of the slope not the relative height of the line. The per capita explains the height. But if American deaths are doubling every 5 days, it should be twice as steep as a country whose deaths are doubling every 11 days, but the American slope appears flatter than Italy.
The % increase per day for US based on above at 2x every 5 days is about 15% while for Italy it's around 8% (2x every 11 days). While the US % increase is double that of Italy the current position on the curve is different. Italy is increasing 8% from 275 per day = 22 per million increase per day. US currently is at 37 per million so the daily increase will be 15% of 37 = 5.5 day. The slope for Italy is therefore 4 times as steep as the US (22 v 5.5). If the growth rates continue as is then the US will eventually pass Italy as in 5 days the US slope will go to 11 per day (still 15% but 15% of a larger number =11 ). As said previously US is about 21 days behind Italy due to the migration from Italy to Europe to US. In 21 days at the current rate the US daily increase goes from 5.5 today to 11 in 5 days to 22 in 10 days to 44 in 15 days and 88 in 20 days. This is way above Italy today whose rates will go from 22 per day to 44 per day in 11 days and 88 in 22 days. So even though US is only a 1/4 of Italy in deaths/million/day they will pass them in terms of slope (increase per day) in 19-20 days if things continue as is. In fact Italy's growth is likely to plateau well before the US so I would expect US to pass Italy in deaths per million mid-late May. This is later due to Italy in effect having a 21 day head start.
I am expecting to hit 3,000 per day next Monday and continue to increase. Italy's peak adjusted for population would lead to 5,500 per day in the US. Italy has done way more testing than the US and have been shut down for over 4 weeks. No single state has the level of restrictions that Italy has in place. Spain has a higher death total (per capita) than Italy!
Made this to help get the point across. I will say per capita measurements in this instance are only helpful for seeing how strained a local community is and doesn't necessarily say much when used on the national level. I'd also caution comparing numbers in the US against other countries without factoring when the outbreaks occurred. Italy's outbreak has been going on longer than ours. (just a general statement not aiming this at you @Denmen185
Edit:
This is why we should be careful about looking at other countries total numbers who are farther along in their outbreak. This is the same data used above just extended along the x-axis.
Good visuals @YaleDawg Perfectly shows that the slope is a combo of Growth rate and where you are in the process. FWIW I didn't use Italy to predict US numbers, I based it on the US trend taking into account the lock-down impact (albeit weak restrictions compared with all European actions). I used a 15% growth rate with an adjustment factor to reflect growing state lock-downs (my projection of 80k was made 3/27) and a (hopeful) realization that the restrictions need tightening.
FWIW Through yesterday the actual deaths are 2,500 ahead of my projection largely due to the late ramp up of testing and hence late spread of lock-down. The revised model as of 4/3 actual shows April deaths at 115k. I have had zero contact with non-household people for the last 20 days (including no shopping for groceries).
115,000 deaths just in April? Is that your prediction? Just curious because revised predictions show far less for the whole pandemic.
Well, the wife and I are still doing good. Good thing I married my best friend the second go around otherwise I would have already shaved my head, changed my name and headed to the BVI if I was still with the first.
Had the second official confirmed case in our county. No local "chatter" on who or where, but that's the way it should be. Local "chatter" mostly consist of gossip which has already been proven wrong a few times here. Still going to play it safe for a while. We're good on the essentials, Beer, liquor, wine, toilet paper and food......and yes, in that order.
Seems that the vast majority are taking the "shelter in place" seriously. That's a really good sign and hopefully we can see a drop in infections on the horizon and things will start getting back to somewhat of a normal way of life again.
Stay Safe All!
......and PM me if you have TP to spare...just in case...😛
Really enjoy the different perspectives - and interpretation of the data - from folks here. Thanks to all for your contributions to this discussion.
I agree with @YaleDawg 's point re: the risk of considering the US to be a monolithic entity when trying to decide which other country to use as a possible analog; particularly since death rate and how many days a country is post-outbreak are only two variables.
What's not consistently applied to future morbidity models is population density & when new countermeasures are deployed...healthcare workers are rapidly amassing valuable experience in understanding how to treat the most severe patients - be it off label use of approved drugs, triage of new cases and methodology for allocation of resources (people, medical equipment, etc.), or additional isolation techniques - none of which were available in places like Italy or Iran as they were the lead countries on this pandemic (outside of China).
All that to say - I think comparing NYC to Italy is more useful than comparing the US to Italy even accounting for population but even that's not ideal. NYC - the densest US city - and greater LA remain the countries' largest population centers and yet the total deaths at the same point of the outbreak are very different.
As of this AM - NYC has had 3,202 deaths (first death on March 13th) while all of LA Country has 169 COVID deaths (first death on March 6th). Applying the NYC death rate to LA because of a similar population size isn't appropriate and probably shouldn't be done with other cities, as well.
Very hard to find good news in the NYC data but Gov. Cuomo did share in his press conference today that they feel that they are on the downslope of the bell curve now with a continued reduction in new hospitalizations and many of the deaths the past few days were patients who were among the first to be hospitalized but had been intubated for 1-2 weeks in some cases.
Wishing everyone continued good health!
It is but pray that I am wrong. Key benchmarks are 2,000 per day hitting 4/8 (today); 3,000 4/12; 4,000 4/16; 5,000 4/20; 6,000 4/26; peak 6,050 4/27. The May total projected is 70-80k. Obviously if a cure is found there will be a dramatic change. 🤞
Still have no idea what you are basing this on. Literally nobody is predicting anything even close to your numbers. There hasn't been 100,000 deaths so far world wide. Dude, quit spreading fear and nonsense.