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Comments
Is Norte Dame out of the playoffs with 1 loss? Probably not, but just curious, as they’ll get out of playing in a tough conference championship game. Everyone keeps mentioning conference championships in this thread, while they’ll get to conveniently not play in one.
True, but ND will be in. Brand, geography, national audience, politics (basically all of the unstated criteria of the committee), all say yes to ND. Football arguments will be based on strength of record, they won ten games in a row, one of the "hottest" teams, one close "good" loss, beat x number of ranked teams, etc. Don't get me wrong, I do think one-loss ND would be a worthy playoff team, above several other potential conference champions...but so would a one-loss Georgia.
Yeah, but with OSU and PSU last year, all the committee had to do was say "not comparable" resumes (PSU had 2 losses (one blow-out and one not-very-good), while OSU only had 1 loss).
Re the what-ifs, I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I do have to give you credit, @Denmen185, for predicting the 2 loss mess in the Big Ten East! At the end of the day, I believe the committee will select these teams ahead of one-loss, non-championship UGA:
Undefeated Bama (obviously)
One-loss ACC champ (Clemson or Miami)
One-loss Big 12 champ (Oklahoma or TCU)
Undefeated Big 10 champ (Wisconsin)
One-loss Notre Dame
Think one-loss, non-champ Georgia gets in ahead of these teams:
One-loss Pac 12 champ (Washington)
Two-loss ND
Two-loss ACC champ
One-loss Big 10 champ Wiscy
Two-loss Big 10 champ (watch out for MSU flying up the rankings!)
Two-loss Big 12 champ
The Big 12 could regret the Champ Game they added as OKL v TCU could be repeated and if split they are done. The "tough" championship games are likely only tough in the SEC and ACC. B1GE will be a 2 or more loss team and if MSU a team that lost to ND. The PAC 12 South team is likely USC who got beaten down by ND and if ND beats Miami how does Clem pass them even with a win. A Miami ACC Champ would also have a loss to ND in that scenario. I am not a ND fan and think that they are always way over-rated but honestly how do you leave them out if they run the table with the number of Conf contenders that they have or will have beaten.
Agreed. I am thinking that:
Overall chance of 3 of those (other than Bama) happening is around 31%
UGA 13-0 IN
A loss to Auburn and winning SECCG is 100% UGA IN.
12-1 with loss to Bama 70% IN
Let's just run the table and be done with it
If ND and CU win out their in. But just like tonight on SEC country, I don't think Wisky gets in without some help, undefeated or not. They've played nobody. Sorry, correction they do get a ranked Iowa this week. But say AU won out and won the SEC; God forbid. I agree with Pollack and Herb that a 2 loss SEC team that had AU's body of work and SOS gets in ahead of Wisky. But the ND-UM game will either knock 1 out or if the U wins they still have to deal with CU. We just need to do us, and keep choppin wood. Bama's depleted at LB (experience wise) like I haven't seen since CNS arrived. Still don't know how bad Minkah's hurt either.
Sorry, I meant to say with one more loss, not one loss total. Basically if ND loses one more, not having that conference title game may hurt. And you may say that most conference games aren’t that tough, but it’s another chance to lose to a solid top 25 team generally. One that ND gets to avoid every year... I think they need to finally join a conference, not fair to others out there. If UGA was an independent right now, they’d be a lock for the playoffs if they won 2 of their next 3 games. Wouldn’t that be nice to say? Although, I don’t mind taking a shot at Bama. Just throwing the scenario out there of how it’s nice to be an independent with no conference title game.
All of the above reasons for ND to be in make me skeptical we'll get a fair shake with one loss. I know what it appears the likelihood is--that we'll get in if we win the SECC. But we are going on people's opinions--not conference championships. There are a lot of variables affecting opinions. What if ND loses to Miami? According to the committee, our win against them is why we are #1. Where are we then? Number two? If we lose to Auburn and ND loses, what will their opinion of our SOS be then? I think we'd be worthy of the playoff with one loss--I just know there are no guarantees.
If we beat a #10 Auburn on the road, beat UK/GT, and then lose to Bama in the SECCG, we still get in assuming Bama is undefeated and the SEC champs. If that game is close I doubt we fall out of the CFP.
Even if Oklahoma and Clemson win out, they both have bad losses to unranked teams.
Our only loss would be to Bama in the conference championship game.
Two top 10 road wins in ND and Auburn plus a close loss in the SECCG puts us in the CFP.
Wisconsin and Miami have a loss coming IMO. If Wisconsin's only loss is in the conference championship game, our schedule and OOC games put us above them. Miami doesn't pass the eye test IMO, and I doubt they will be in the running considering they are underwhelming even though winning.
Edit: Let me add how lucky we are that OSU and PSU lost last weekend, especially the way OSU lost (absolute devastation, and couldn't come at a better for us considering JT Barrett was then being discussed as the Heisman frontrunner yet threw 4 INT in that game).
If Auburn loses to us and Bama, they will no longer be top 10, would be lucky to be top 20 with 4 losses.
Food for thought. We could easily have won that game by 21 rather than 1. Would ND still be #3 if we had and would the win look as good? Maybe if we had we would be #2.
They'd still be the best 4 loss team in the country tho. They'd have 3 losses to top 5 teams and 1 to LSU. I think TCU takes care of the situation Sat. But even if OU beats them, how can anyone put a team that plays zero defense in the CFP. Mayfield may win the Heisman, but their D is TERRIBLE..
Being the best 4 loss team sounds like being Champions of Life.
Speaking of which (UT) they are one of the best 0-5 teams in the SEC
At the very least #2
Yes it does. N maybe Gus will give em a ring too. But we were in that spot a year ago. I like where we're headed.