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Comments
We have talked about this before, so you know I adamantly disagree. I say that he was horrible in 2016 and 2017 and is 35 years old. Don’t need to rehash all that though.
I hope they go after a 3-4 win player with some years of control in that spot via trade. They’ve got plenty of prospects to swing some deals
It depends on how management feels about options in RF if Nick isn't brought back. I'd hate to add offense in one spot just to lose it in another area. NM has a very solid built, no injury concerns and a very mechanically sound nd patient approach to hitting.
Here is how I view it.
In NM's 4 seasons as a Brave he's been 1st in MLB among RFs in doubles twice and 2nd the other 2 years. His OBP has averaged 6th among RFs, but since those top 5 spots have been divided among more than 5 players, he's likely around 3rd overall. He has averaged playing 148 games over the past 8 seasons and he's committed just 10 errors over those 1184 games. He gets on base, he hits doubles, he doesn't commit errors and he's on the field almost every game, that is good net value.
I'm good with bringing him back, but in needs to be a 1-2 year or an inexpensive deal. Age always wins out. If there is a younger/cheaper option I'd prefer that.
That's the gamble. His age. When is that drop-off coming? @WCDawg put up solid stats and he's right. I certainly won't grumble if he returns. I really loved watching him play this last season, but I will understand if the Braves pass. I'd like to be the proverbial fly on the wall and hear those conversations.
I'd prefer a 2 year deal, at the right price of course. My question is always, is he likely better than who we'd end up with if we go another way.
Yeah, I'm trying to think about who's out there but I haven't been keeping up on a daily basis like I will come spring training. So, I don't know who that candidate might be. I'm so consumed with UGA right now...which is cool because it's an ideal salve for the Falcons which makes me feel dreadful for even alluding to them.
I'm concerned that 2018 may have been a bit of an anomaly for him at this point in his career. I don't have the stats in front of me but he was an all-star level performer the first 6-8 weeks. After that he was a replacement level player the rest of the way.
Who are these Foul-cons you allude to ?
I might do some quick research on potential free agent and trade bait RFs tonight.
Brantley and pollack are two of the top free agents still out there that have upside. As usual both are on the tail end of their careers and have injury risks, but both have shown to be good players when healthy. They could also try and target someone else in a trade, though I haven’t heard any names associated with them.
If they re sign Markakis it would probably be a stopgap for a year or just for outfield depth. Publicly available Projection systems estimate him to be about 1.1 WAR in 2019 which is below average to bad. Teams will have their own systems, but the projections will probably be pretty similar.
And while Nick was pretty good in 2018 with 2.6 WAR, he was below average in 2016 at 1.2 WAR and bad in 2017, at 0.5 WAR despite decent surface level stats. If you buy into him replicating 2018 again he would be a pretty good option, but contending teams can’t afford to give consistent starts to 2017 Nick.
WAR is a useful tool sometimes, but I value OBP, doubles, durability and a lack of errors maybe more than whoever came up with that formula does. Markakis will likely give you 12 to 18 hr, 36 to 42 doubles, .350 to 370 OBP just 1 to 2 errors and 155 games per season.
Also, I'm sure Nick is looking for one last solid 3 or so year deal. Doubt he wants a 1 year deal, have a bad season, then all teams thinking father time has caught up with him. And that would ruin potential earnings until he retires. His stock is very unlikely to get any higher after last season, and at his age, so he should want to cash-in one last decent contract.
I'm not against re-signing him, but for the right price... What does everyone think he's worth? And whatever you pay him that's less money to sure up the bullpen and front-line SP, so they'll likely have to trade away young players to get those issues solved.
lol - The Falcons have been such a disappointment. I can't think of the last time I was so disappointed. The natty last year was disappointing but it was a weird disappointment. I guess because it's been so long since UGA was that close to a NC. I remember feeling this kind of disappointment when Garcia left Kimbrel in the pen in v LA. That kind of angry disappointment, haha.
I'd give him 2 years, I didn't see any signs of erosion in 2018.
Frankly nobody is going to give him a 3 year deal, so if we want him for 1 year we wouldn't be up against any big offers. Standard is usually players are worth 8.5-9M/WAR , but teams almost never pay that much. I feel like outfield role players could be> @Teddy said:
Frankly it isn't likely someone offers him a 3 year deal, because 35 year olds never get those. So we won't have to outbid those offers if we want him. I think he could be had for 6-8M but honestly I could be off, as I am not as well researched in salaries as I am about player value. An upper bound would be about 11M, anything after that and his contract would be bringing negative value to the team a la Tehran.