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That's my point.... there will be casualties....unavailable....but I think we all know it won't approach anywhere near 4.1 mill.
For this economy to work for everyone.....everyone has to work....every paying job is essential.
When 30% of industries aren't able to work.....eventually it will really hurt the other 70%.
It sucks....but there will be loss of life. But it doesn't make sense to shut things down to save thousands.......when doing so destroys millions.
Doing nothing but go on as normal also will cause 30 times more deaths than the number quoted in 2 years let alone in 20 years.
How do you know this?
Gut feeling?
Are these the people who we should expect to self monitor and self isolate to protect others?
Anyone going to the Georgia-Alabama game if fans are allowed?
Getting college kids on campus and away from home is probably the absolute best thing to do.
If they get covid.....they get covid......they'll be fine. And they won't be home to give it to parents or grandparents.
Put professors behind plexiglass shields. It's about time these professors faced some real life hardships anyway.... maybe they'll start having some real life views on things.
I’m not saying they’re going to die I’m saying they’re in the hospital plain and simple. If there is football I think schools will go the Ohio State approach with the waiver, if they already haven’t done so silently not putting that info out there.
Don't know if masks really work or not.....but it's certainly easy to just err on the side of caution and wear one.
Especially if it opens things up. Opens EVERYTHING up.
If it's later proven that they were unnecessary....big deal....if it's later proven that they were very necessary......and many didn't wear them... ..even bigger deal.
Those of us that believe we need to open things up......EVERYTHING......and fight through this.....
Can we not give a little ground somewhere? Pick our battles. Fight closing stuff down.....but don't fight the masks.
Wearing a mask won't jeopardize everyone's financial well being. Closing down will.
The article was based on deaths at the time of 81k and currently sits at 128k. Doing nothing likely means going back to at least April numbers of 60k per month or higher due to geographic spread and higher case base. By June 2021 deaths would likely be:
128 + 12 x 60 x 1.5 (spread) = 1,208k
By June 2022 the total would be increased by another 1,080 to 2,288.
This does not include indirect deaths due to health resources being almost totally used on treating Covid.
By the way the economy will not really improve to any large extent until the virus is controlled as business may reopen but customers don't come flooding back with deaths at 90k per month which is where it will be at "normality".
We can definitely get there without the numbers being thrown around. 60% of the US population is below the age of 45. The known CFR for that age group is not far from the flu. Current CFR for 40-49 year olds in Georgia is 99.22% 30-39 year olds is 99.65% 18-29 year olds is 99.92% 0-17 is 99.99999999%
That's without using any CDC 10x case multipliers.
Open up the World but tell Grandma to stay home until Easter , and the people with heart problems, diabetes, or other issues to be really vigilant.
Understandably most of the topics/hypothesises/models shared here are done at a macro level - which I do believe is the way this should be viewed when considering public policy decisions re: additional restrictions & safeguards - but as we know macro-level theory & policy means little when we as individuals either "feel great or know someone who got it and had no symptoms" or "I had it it was horrible and it claimed the lives of someone I loved": both perspectives are valid.
For what it's worth - my Dad is 77 and lives with us. He's a man of faith so has a different perspective on why he's on this planet than others may have (not saying it's right or wrong - just offering perspective). The concept of what the greater cost is to the country, the economy and its citizens is far more troubling to him than his personal safety. Maybe it's a generational thing, maybe it's his time in the Air Force, but his general position is "Why in the world should I expect the entire country to stop running because I happen to be in a higher risk group? I can stay home if I feel I'm at risk but the country needs to be running and people need to be able to make a living if they want to".
Just another perspective from someone who's in the higher-risk group...
The mask has become a dividing line of defiance against tyranny. Not wearing one is social protest--at least that is what my experience has been in the NE. As I've complained since March when we locked it all down...mandatory, enforceable mask wearing and social distancing indoors is all we need to do to protect people and our economy. Target aid to the entertainment and hospitality industries who are most impacted by the precautions. We don't need months on end of "sheltering in place."
How many parents/grandparents of 18-21 have died after getting the virus from their bar hopping children/grandchildren? YOU CAN'T RESTRICT THE VIRUS TO ONE AGE GROUP!
Have you considered telling your children/grandchildren not to visit for a while, that you can do a zoom video call?
They say not wearing a mask is selfish. So is wanting everyone to be shutdown instead of just those vulnerable.
Sure, I realize that some grandparents live with younger folks, but those families can also control their own behavior.
My example is to point out that you blindly sought out a university study and didn't bother to fully question it. Had I posted such an article I would have footnoted that ridiculous experiment. How many more examples must I show you before you get the general concept that relying solely on science with respect to C-19 is a fools errand? "Meh science, meh science!"
FWIW they haven't. But what are the chances that these 18-21 year olds have not come into contact with anyone 55+. ZERO. Many of the younger group work in LTC facilities, grocery stores, gas stations, restaurants etc and will spread to other people if they become infected; that's indisputable.
I absolutely agree that the economy will not be completely back while there are still deaths. But the economy will be open.
Retailers won't be fully staffed... but they'll be staffed.
Entertainment places won't be fully staffed....but they'll be staffed.
Ballparks won't be full.....but some vendors will be open.
More people can pay rent or pay mortgages.
More property owners and landlords can get paid.
I can go on and on.
Yes.....lives will be lost. That is extremely upsetting. Heck......maybe I get it and die.
This isn't that unlike WW II. Thousands of lost lives to save millions.
I appreciate that many of you are very concerned with saving every life....who wouldn't be. I'm extremely PRO LIFE.
But America has to be productive to survive.
Those that feel there is a security blanket for them....either from the govt or a family member....are more inclined to shutting it down and letting it pass.
Those of us that are the security blanket.....supporting family and paying an unjust amount to support the govt through taxes.....understand that the country has to get back to work......the entire country.
If you don't see this... .you don't see this....and probably never will.
90000 deaths (doubt that is likely but you know the numbers better than me) would be awful.
But there are 340,000,000 million (probably a lot more considering illegals) people. Say that slowly......3. 4. 0 ...000,000 million. And all need money, food, shelter, health care, etc...
Shutting down any portion of the economy won't work.
I honestly can't underhow
In the study they note it was slightly damp. That doesn't mean they are spraying it with a squirt bottle and making it wet. They were replicating conditions similar to exhaled moisture that accumulates in a mask to make the experiment as accurate as possible.
Come up with a better straw man next time. This is starting to get embarrassing.
Guys just relax...central planners have a great track record of success. I’m going back out in the fields, today could be the day I get sheered. BAAAAA
You ok @texdawg? Your last sentence had a "Castle of Aaargh" feel to it! 😄
Yea.
I guess I was trying to say that I can't understand how more people on Dawgnation don't see this.
But I know we are all different.