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Comments
FYI - This is info directly from the CDC:
"The virus that causes COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly from person to person, mainly through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs. Spread is more likely when people are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)."
In other words, it is spread Airborne. That is why masks greatly reduce the risk of spreading the disease to others.
I mean, it’s almost like two things can be right at the same time. HOW DOES IT MAKE SENSE?!?!?!?!
The info I have seen seems to say that Airborne is by far the biggest cause of spread. It is possible to also get it from surfaces but the latest info seems to say that the odds are fairly low. Still, it is a good idea to wash hands and use hand sanitizer when hand washing is not possible to prevent spread from surfaces, especially if you use any public washrooms. The infectious disease specialists are still learning so the information seems to change over time as they learn more and try to get the info out to the public.
I'm not in the medical profession, so with that strong caveat, I'll tell you why I think that football season is likely to happen. I think the big story on Covid in the month of July will be dramatically decreasing death rates. People will die in far lower percentages and the medical world will begin to figure out why. This disease is much deadlier in the "herd" when vitamin D levels are low (dead of winter). A study in Indonesia (not peer reviewed and not the NEJM) followed seriously ill and hospitalized CV patients *after* they tested their vitamin D levels. Of 780 people those with adequate D levels survived at close to 100%. Those with deficient levels (very low) died at close to 100%. D levels directly and strongly correlated inversely with mortality. Summer sunshine exposure is where people get the great majority of their vitamin D. Winter sun doesn't work at higher latitudes (like the US). The Indonesian study used levels very close to the US Endocrine Society's recommendations for defining deficient, insufficient, and adequate. Kirby needs to get the Dawgs outside in their gymshorts for workouts.
Wait wait wait...
so you mean to tell me, info is ALWAYS CHANGING, and that we should take new info and ADJUST ACCORDINGLY WITHOUT HOLDING ON TO OUR PRECONCEIVED NOTIONS?????
what crazy world am I living in sir?
Spread through sneeze droplets. The virus itself is not airborne ,only when someone aerosols a sneeze out there. Still goes back to the same proper etiquette that has been time tested. If you are sick don’t go out in public. If you must sneeze , sneeze into your elbow. Wash your hands frequently, keep surfaces that are commonly touched clean. This is not new.
Are most of these masks filtering at a micron level to filter a virus if it was airborne? No. Do most people use the mask correctly to stop the spread? No. Do they clean the masks? No. Do they continue to wear viral and fecal laden masks for hours or days? Yes.
Test, take one of these mask and do an activity that generates dust.. See if dust gets through
Could masks help if used properly? Yes. But sneezing into a mask then pulling the dirty mask down 15 minutes later, getting the goody on your hand, touching a door knob, that is touched by the next person, who touches their mask they wear for a week because it’s orange and they are a hillbilly, well that dog don't hunt.
Recently saw a lady pull down her mask and wipe her nose on her glove in the line ahead of me at the hardware store. Proceeded to use the debit pad. Cashier was horrified and kind enough to wipe the pad for me prior to my use.
My family had some history with the Spanish flu. Actually a great story. I will post it later. It was much worse than COVID. Although I don’t minimize COVID.
It’s also hard to get real numbers and facts on COVID because it so politicized.
"...mainly through respiratory droplets when a person...talks."
I just had a fantastic idea.
Please wear masks y'all.
I'm in Texas but my grandma still lives in atlanta and she'd probably die if she caught it
First, there is clearly a debate over whether it is airborne. As evidenced by this:
That being said, it seems like the weight of the evidence is that it is airborne. And even if it isn't, the masks help large-droplet transmission to some degree. Seems like it is worth the risk.
Second, be careful not to make assumptions about causation from correlation, let alone cherry-picked anecdotes like Australia. For every Australia, there is an Arizona, where cases spiked as the temperature increased (Arizona has 50% more sunny days than the average US state and it's summer temps are close to 20 degrees above avg; the Phoenix high temps this coming week will range between 109 and 115). We still have no idea what effect temperature will have on transmission or lethality.
Third, anybody that can tell you the likelihood and extent that we will develop herd immunity at this point is guessing. We haven't had enough time to generate any meaningful data. We just have guesses.
Fourth, while the mortality rate is likely lower than it was first thought to be (probably due more to better supplies and approaches to treatment), which is a great thing, the increasing number of cases--and hospitalizations are a problem. Houston is starting to get overwhelmed with cases, for example. In select places, the curve is getting too steep. This could be a huge problem if we don't respond well--and recent events suggest we will not always respond adequately.
Fifth, I hope Tex is right about depth, the tendency of youngsters to be asymptomatic, etc. I really want/need college football. And I think this could be a special year if all the pieces fall into place (a requirement for any championship team). The pieces are there. But to have football, we probably have to have Universities that are open and teams opponents to play. And the decision makers at the schools vary in levels of risk adverseness. And they have to factor in older staff and faculty when deciding to keep schools open, not just the students.
Finally, just my opinion, but I wish we could just disentangle science from politics. Or at least elect leaders that understand and value science, such that they make better evaluations of science, and base decisions on that information. Not meant to be an attack on any one politician.
If the US had addressed the virus effectively as Italy did, you are right we would all be enjoying life. But the Italian response was more organized and systematic. Gawd did i just say the Italians are have been more organized than us? Ugh.
Ive often said if we were all on the same page and took it seriously, we could get mostly rid of the virus and move on. But our fragmented and start/stop some folks are in some folks resist approach is allowing the virus to spread. We have to be united or our economy truly will be hurt by this. I dont understand the economy vs the virus thing as wearing a mask and stopping the virus is the single biggest thing all of us can do to help our economy and maybe hopefully have a college football season.
Not sure where you get your info but Italy's response was less than ideal and certainly not effective. The first seeds of the virus came into the Milan area with Chinese expats returning from the Chinese New Year celebration in late Jan/early Feb. Italy did not shut down until March 11th.
The Italian hospitals then admitted patients with mild symptoms into their hospitals and basically turned the emergency room and ICU into vectors to infect other non-Covid patients and it took off from there.
My point was, despite all the early missteps here in Italy, that the virus is basically burning itself out naturally. I think it has run the course of every other respiratory virus. Unfortunately, Italy is a very old society and most adults smoke although they are otherwise healthy. The virus took out the "low hanging fruit" early on and many others were exposed but did not get sick. Yes, the virus is still lingering but nowhere near as potent as it once was.
I think this pattern follows in the US if we'll let it. Our approach should be: Take precautions, carry on as best you can, protect the vulnerable. Shutting down the economy was a self-inflicted wound that only prolonged the inevitable course of the virus.
I agree Italy made missteps and their initial response left something to be desired. But, they did get their act together and have the virus largely under control. I speak to Italians every week if not every day in my work and so I hear the perspective of small business owners in Italy. They were glad the country was cautious and glad that life is returning to normal. They think doing it right and moving on at the time felt hard, but when they look at the US, they shudder and are grateful that they were able to have strict enough measures that got them over the hump.
I think every country will have its own unique dynamics. There are a lot of Chinese expats in the north and that was the original entry point. Interestingly, the virus never spread widely in the south and in Sicily like the experts predicted even though Italians were still traveling there before the movement restrictions were in place.
Italy is an economic basket case and will be even more so after this. Hopefully the virus has run its course for now and kids and healthy adults can get on with their lives. By the way, I'm not hearing of any Covid pregnancies like I expected but have heard of a lot of strained marriages.
I'm hearing Michigan vs Washington week one will be cancelled. Likely replace Washington with a Directional Michigan school. Likely Eastern Washington.
Apparently the new push is to remove all games that require air travel and replace with car/bus.
This week you'll likely see some D1 schools starting to cancel seasons completely. Those that elect to try and play will play some schools twice in order to get a season in. Apparently the numbers are out of control in locker rooms across the country.
There's also growing momentum for postponing till Spring, especially with the Novartis news.