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5 questions with TCU beat writer: Why Horned Frogs have ‘punchers chance’ at upset

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Comments

  • MontanaDawgMontanaDawg Posts: 2,156 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Sonny Dykes has done a fantastic job in a short amount of time at TCU. Quite the turnaround from a pretty mediocre if not bad season last year.

    TCU's recruiting rankings:

    2022- 45th

    2021 - 54th

    2020 - 23rd

    2019 - 32nd

    So, not stellar results on the recruiting trail, BUT Dykes was able to come in and convince most players to stay in the program after he stepped in. Also, a big key was that TCU pulled 14 players out of the transfer portal.

    Sonny has obviously used the portal to his advantage and given the Frogs a big boost.

  • VetdawgVetdawg Posts: 860 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I see us running for over 359 yards and our pass game being less than 150

  • reddawg1reddawg1 Posts: 3,878 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @thadec

    We should have lost but we didn't. We overcame our mistakes. Michigan looked like they were dead 2-3 times in that game and they kept clawing back in despite their giving up 2 pick sixes and blowing what looked like a sure TD on the 1st drive of the game and fumbling on the goal line later on a botched hand off. That's what, 28 points. right. That stuff doesn't happen they win going away. I gave credit to the TCU DB's for making the play on those ill advised throws, sort of like SB's throw to Kenny McInt. He threw it right to the defender, but good on the defender for catching it. BUt thats no credit to the Ohio St team for being "better" or "more prepared."

    It's all a game of woulda shoulda, but yes, Michigan should have won, just like Ohio St. shoulda, like Kirby said himself. But we came back just enough and Michigan fell short. Close but no cigar. TCU played a near perfect game and won, barely! Michigan played like dog meat and it was still there for the taking. Ohio St. played a near perfect game and lost, barely! It was there for the taking but the FG kicker missed. That's not because UGA was more "prepared" somehow that he missed. Stuff just happens. There is still some chance involved. Everyone knows we didn't play our best, but we won against a team with as many high caliber players as we have, probably more on offense than we have. TCU beat the better team, with better players as you said. I take nothing away from TCU's effort but it still remains they should of lost, but they didn't.

    I've written in this forum that TCU will be a good opponent and we'd better play our A game. I think you'd agree with that.

  • thadecthadec Posts: 611 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
    edited January 2023

    @Vetdawg

    Mentioned this to @MikeGriffith yesterday though I neglected to check his reply ... TCU's stopping Michigan's running game actually wasn't a surprise due to the strange version of the 3-3-5 that they play. Most teams who run the 3-3-5 were either running the 3-4 or the 4-2-5 prior. In the former case, they just replace an ILB with a strong safety or rover who essentially does the same thing. In the latter case, they just turn the LDE into an LOLB who does the same thing. Not much else changes in terms of personnel, strategy, formation etc. But that isn't the case with TCU's 3-3-5.

    Instead it looks like TCU actually put thought into theirs. They use a traditional 3-4 DL: DE, NT, DE. (They have a former UGA NT as their own 2nd string NT). But instead of "three LBs from a 3-4 scheme with a safety replacing an ILB" they actually use traditional 4-3 LBs: OLB, MLB, OLB who play like 4-3 LBs.

    And in the secondary, instead of going with 2 CBs and 3 safeties, they use 2 safeties and 3 CBs. They don't need the extra safety because their LBs play 4-3 style!

    So if Michigan - who has built their entire program from the ground up around running the football - wasn't able to get much going against that TCU setup, I honestly don't see how UGA is going to. UGA hasn't been a dominant rushing team since 2018 and honestly hasn't tried to be since 2020. When was the last time UGA had a 1000 yard rusher? How many times the last 2 years have they had a single RB go over 100 yards in a game? And remember: this was with playing 15 games last year and 14 games so far this year.

    To partially answer the questions I just threw at you ... there have been three 100 yard rushing games by UGA this season: McIntosh against Kentucky (19-143), Edwards against Florida (12-106) and Milton against LSU (8-113). Expecting UGA to rush for 360 yards when they haven't run that type of offense in years isn't realistic. By comparison, UGA only rushed for 320 yards against Oklahoma in 2017 and it took them 34 carries in double OT to get there. Not only is the TCU defense much better than that Oklahoma sieve but even if you are going to claim that McIntosh, Milton and Edwards are the equal of Chubb, Michel and Swift, they aren't going to get anywhere near the 34 carries to prove it. UGA's tailbacks only carried it 16 times against Ohio State. Edwards had 8 carries and the other tailbacks had 8 between them.

  • VetdawgVetdawg Posts: 860 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Great points.

    the main reason behind this statement is the type of defense which as you mentioned is t traditional but the other thought behind this is I feel it’s our best way to exploit the largest advantage Georgia has over them… our depth. As you stated our rbs haven’t had many 100 yard games over the last 2 years. But the feeling of not having clock control and having to sling it all over the field from the start I don’t set well with Kirby. In order to set a tone for the game, I do feel we run the ball much much more. I also feel like our stable of healthy rbs and our depth at o line are better than anything they’ve seen yet. Once again for the second year in a row the Joe Moore winner was spanked in the first game following receipt of the award.

  • navydawgnavydawg Posts: 3,545 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @MontanaDawg @DallasDawg Thanks for the info. regarding the weather guys !! Sounds good !! Go Dawgs !!

  • navydawgnavydawg Posts: 3,545 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited January 2023

    For me I Trust our Coaching Staff on both sides of the ball to have a viable game plan. So it’s up to the Dawgs to go out and execute those plans. They affirmed after the OSU game that they All could have played better. And I Believe they Will indeed play better. TCU is a very good program, well coached, with very good and very motivated players. Dawgs need to bring everything they have for the Full 4 qtrs. I Believe when the final tick is done on the clock, the Dawgs will have the winning score. I’m not sure what the score will be and will not hazard a guess. Go Dawgs !! P.S. Regardless the outcome I’m Extremely Proud of these Dawgs !! I don’t think many people Really thought they’d be in this position after losing all the talent they did. These Dawgs started off Hungry and Still are !!

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  • UGADad20UGADad20 Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Kind of an off topic. BUT a lot of discussion here on MI/TCU and the UGA/OSU games coulda shoulda woulda.

    I'll add another that no one has mentioned. On MI's last offensive play (4th and 10 ) MI fumbled, recovered and then scrambled for no gain. BUT there was what looked like a targeting hit on the tackle. Wasn't called but was reviewed. And ruled NOT targeting. Sure looked like targeting. Looked like targeting WAY more than the Bullard hit . So put it to rest OSU fans.

    My point is a targeting call there gives MI a 1st down and new life to possibly pull out a win despite how poorly they played. 2nd point If THAT wasn't targeting no way in he** Bullard's hit was targeting. (which we all knew from watching the replays)

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