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COVID-19 Check-in
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Comments
I want to identify who's doing the country a disservice? Over a mask? Then what, mask police or some other form of authoritarianism?
And I'm wondering if you are like me, retired? Where we have the option of staying home and not wearing a mask because we don't need to. I mean when you're in your own house or outdoors mowing the lawn in a 90 degree heat you wouldn't wear a mask. That would be ridiculous.
But if we're still working, you have to wear a mask. If we worked for a company that made wearing masks optional, can you imagine the flood of lawsuits that would occur if someone got sick or worse?
On a related note, I ordered a patio table from my local HD and picked it up in-store. It was missing hardware and instructions, so I attempted to call the manufacturer/distributor. No luck. Eight minutes on hold and I gave up.
And call HD? Fifty rings. No luck there either. In fact, when I went to the store, I understood why. The phone wasn't ringing; they must have turned off the ringer. And they didn't even have a cust svc person working there. Why you might ask? I learned from the mgr that they are extremely short handed. People don't like wearing masks. And earning more staying home than working is a factor too.
Given the choice of working for an HD, especially outdoors, but required to wear a mask. Well let's just say, that most 18-30 year-olds are gonna say "scr ew this, I'm outta here"
So before you pre-judge people who don't like masks, try going back to work and having to wear those dam things. They're hot and uncomfortable. Try that for eight hours, and you'll have my attention.
Fair enough to point out, as it seems it has been copied and pasted in many articles, some of which are mis-using it.
"This “flatten the curve” graph was published in the March 17, 2020 New York Times article “Why We Need to Keep the Curve Flat.” It is not based on data. It is a model of what could happen when people took protective measures. It does not show how many infected people there are, how many will recover, or how many will die. Rather, its purpose is to help people understand why we must change our behavior now so we can experience benefits later. "
I copied the paragraph above from another article explaining it. There is a separate graph that shows expected infections/deaths over time. Very different in volume under the curve.
The area under the curve will not be the same. The flattening of the curve concept was not effectively communicated
It isn't crap. I hate to refer to them as red or blue 🤣 but the thing that isn't apparent is the fact that total deaths in the blue scenario is much lower than the red case. With the red scenario too many die due to lack of availability of proper treatment and many more deaths occur before the advancement of treatment/vaccine. NYC suffered higher mortality rates for these reasons. The other factor is that the US is really the sum of numerous curves due to the sheer geographic size slowing the spread east to west. It is difficult to determine which curve any area is on but NYC had restrictions in place long and strong enough to flatten their curve albeit later than they maybe should have. The other states have had advance warning and definitely flattened their curve but lifted the restrictions that achieved the plateau too quickly. In effect they reached "base camp", rested there but then started climbing again. The key is to again flatten and start to decline before the point of no return is passed. Florida for instance can't contact trace 4-5000 cases a day. That's why I say there is a tipping point that is fast approaching if not already here.
Edit: BTW My confidence is hardly bolstered by the fact that Fl never did update hospitalization numbers yesterday and are still "Not fully Configured" on any of today's 11am report data!
This is why I don’t watch or listen to much of the coverage on this. What are the things medical experts say are most likely to prevent spread/mitigating risk? Masks, hand washing, social distancing, getting good sleep, eating healthy, exercising. I need to know what to do to mitigate risk for myself and my family and expect/encourage them to do those things.
Those are the things I can control. I can’t control public policy, curves, idiots spouting off on television, or anything else. Our leaders are faced with a bad choice and a worse choice when it comes to lockdown. I don’t envy any of them.
So, I wear a mask when I’m out. I don’t care what anyone else thinks about it, or what inferences they make about me.
Ok dude
I don't think he was implying the area would be the same. It doesn't take an much education to understand that changing any single condition would make it almost impossible to have the same area under the curve let alone shutting the entire economy down.
Beats knowing someone died because of me. I don’t like wearing one, but if wearing one stops the spread, I think I can deal with some discomfort. I’m not storming the beaches of Normandy or anything
I think that is a great way to be. I think it would be better if more people were that way. However, I am not surprised or infuriated that they are not.
Maybe he wasn't (it seemed like he was) but many people believe that we were destined for a set amount of cases or similar amount of cases between the options. Flattening the curve would necessarily mean extending the time where we see new cases coming up for that to be true. The concept has just been horribly presented. Just because Europe's graph has a spike followed by low cases whereas ours has remained constantly high doesn't mean we're doing better because it roughly represents those neat fictional graphs that were given to the public. Scientists are terrible at communicating information to the general public. We either give way too much info that no one can follow or we oversimplify things to the point it doesn't accurately reflect reality. The latter is the problem here.
As a son of a scientist, I agree. I also think that there are a lot of people who thought taking such drastic measures would do more to stop the virus and are now surprised that more cases are popping up. If anything, this experiment has made me feel less confident in the effectiveness of any future shutdowns. Especially when you consider the economic harm that has been done.
Man, I sure do appreciate the feedback on the graph and everything else from all you guys.
And, yes, I was under the impression that the area under the graph was supposed to be similar (maybe not exact, but it always looked similar to me ON EVERY GRAPH), regardless of what happens. I still feel that was an accurate interpretation of the data presented. That is what was communicated, in my opinion, across the board BEFORE THIS THING SWUNG POLITICAL. And, yes, it was horribly presented if that was not intended.
I am at no time indicating that we should just go out and live like we want to, cases be d_mned. I know there is plenty we can do. I will argue that - even though some may disagree - we have done a lot and continue to do a lot. I see distancing. I see masks. I see people having common sense. Which is why I DON'T SEE Augusta, or New York, happening again. We will have ebb and flow - I thought that was communicated before stores were reopened. What I don't understand is why everyone is very upset about what was predicted.
Did people really think we were down to the numbers to where we could contact trace everything? I personally never thought that was the purpose of getting back to some sense of normal living. I always felt like we were balancing on an edge until some type of treatment/vaccine was developed (which is hopeful, but not promised).
Minus a vaccine, I expect us to live with this thing for the duration. No end. Another type of mortality - one that we learn to control but never eradicate. And what we look like right now is not how I hope we live moving forward.
No one should get mad at others for interpreting the graphs that way because it is exactly what they showed. It was just bad info. That type of data in real life will always be messy and isn't guaranteed to follow a normal distribution especially when you look at cases for the entire country
I understand the variance in it all, but I always assumed the final tallies would be in the same ballpark, as long as the medical system was not strained. That is where I thought the main difference would come. I will be curious to see the mortality rate from now until Christmas vs. March until now.
From a scientific standpoint, all of this is fascinating (which I don't like to say when so much - including life and death - is at stake). The 1000's of variables... The county to our west has had 3000 cases. We have had 1200. The county to our east has had 100. The population is different, but not that different.
The only bright spot of a canceled season would be that Gator Hater counter keeps rising.
Edit: I meant to post this in the FHZ Thread, but it actually works here too. I wonder if being a dundermuffin is a symptom of the Coronavirus.