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Ok dude
I don't think he was implying the area would be the same. It doesn't take an much education to understand that changing any single condition would make it almost impossible to have the same area under the curve let alone shutting the entire economy down.
Beats knowing someone died because of me. I don’t like wearing one, but if wearing one stops the spread, I think I can deal with some discomfort. I’m not storming the beaches of Normandy or anything
I think that is a great way to be. I think it would be better if more people were that way. However, I am not surprised or infuriated that they are not.
Maybe he wasn't (it seemed like he was) but many people believe that we were destined for a set amount of cases or similar amount of cases between the options. Flattening the curve would necessarily mean extending the time where we see new cases coming up for that to be true. The concept has just been horribly presented. Just because Europe's graph has a spike followed by low cases whereas ours has remained constantly high doesn't mean we're doing better because it roughly represents those neat fictional graphs that were given to the public. Scientists are terrible at communicating information to the general public. We either give way too much info that no one can follow or we oversimplify things to the point it doesn't accurately reflect reality. The latter is the problem here.
As a son of a scientist, I agree. I also think that there are a lot of people who thought taking such drastic measures would do more to stop the virus and are now surprised that more cases are popping up. If anything, this experiment has made me feel less confident in the effectiveness of any future shutdowns. Especially when you consider the economic harm that has been done.
Man, I sure do appreciate the feedback on the graph and everything else from all you guys.
And, yes, I was under the impression that the area under the graph was supposed to be similar (maybe not exact, but it always looked similar to me ON EVERY GRAPH), regardless of what happens. I still feel that was an accurate interpretation of the data presented. That is what was communicated, in my opinion, across the board BEFORE THIS THING SWUNG POLITICAL. And, yes, it was horribly presented if that was not intended.
I am at no time indicating that we should just go out and live like we want to, cases be d_mned. I know there is plenty we can do. I will argue that - even though some may disagree - we have done a lot and continue to do a lot. I see distancing. I see masks. I see people having common sense. Which is why I DON'T SEE Augusta, or New York, happening again. We will have ebb and flow - I thought that was communicated before stores were reopened. What I don't understand is why everyone is very upset about what was predicted.
Did people really think we were down to the numbers to where we could contact trace everything? I personally never thought that was the purpose of getting back to some sense of normal living. I always felt like we were balancing on an edge until some type of treatment/vaccine was developed (which is hopeful, but not promised).
Minus a vaccine, I expect us to live with this thing for the duration. No end. Another type of mortality - one that we learn to control but never eradicate. And what we look like right now is not how I hope we live moving forward.
No one should get mad at others for interpreting the graphs that way because it is exactly what they showed. It was just bad info. That type of data in real life will always be messy and isn't guaranteed to follow a normal distribution especially when you look at cases for the entire country
I understand the variance in it all, but I always assumed the final tallies would be in the same ballpark, as long as the medical system was not strained. That is where I thought the main difference would come. I will be curious to see the mortality rate from now until Christmas vs. March until now.
From a scientific standpoint, all of this is fascinating (which I don't like to say when so much - including life and death - is at stake). The 1000's of variables... The county to our west has had 3000 cases. We have had 1200. The county to our east has had 100. The population is different, but not that different.
The only bright spot of a canceled season would be that Gator Hater counter keeps rising.
Edit: I meant to post this in the FHZ Thread, but it actually works here too. I wonder if being a dundermuffin is a symptom of the Coronavirus.
@GrayDawg great thoughts as always Graydawg. I desperately want people to wear a mask and desperately want that to be apolitical.
I also am not unaware enough to realize this is nearly impossible today and that frustrates me. I have tried to counter this by using Texdawg's quote that might be saying the same thing as me but perhaps in a more relatable way of why would we ever want to jeopardize our freedom that we paid a price through the shutdowns to earn? And you have Rubio saying "just wear a dam^ mask!"
The truth is there is only one person (and his followers in elected positions who dont feel they can disagree with him) making wearing a mask political. And that angers me - a lot. Wearing a mask shouldnt be political.
But it is as you point out. So where does that leave me? Well, i can say its political so ill be quiet or i can rail against the other side using a fraction of what is said about folks with my views by elected officials, supportive media sites and even blatantly by some posters on this forum without consequence.
But being quiet nor being political really fit me. Im going to keep saying just wear a dam^ mask people and hope this request somehow becomes adopted and apolitical. To me, our economy depends on it. As a small business owner, I can take a hit for a while, but if we dont properly address the situation and it comes back and worse this becomes a cycle, I'm screwed. My request to the world about wearing a mask is rooted in my need for my business to survive and not some political talking point or counterpoint.
1092 new cases in Mississippi today smashing the record of 611.
Record number of cases today. Wear your mask people! College football depends on it!
This table is for June Month-to-Date in comparison to the May equivalent.
CPD - Average Cases per day.
TPD - Average Tests per day.
Note: The last line is the US total excluding NY, NJ, Mass, Illini, Penn and Mich (the states in NE/ mid west that I had been tracking initially).
Florida for instance shows a 38% increase in testing but a 219% increase in number of cases which means that the rate of positive tests (spread) has increased by 135%. In the case of Mississippi June testing is down 20% yet cases have still increased 29%.
It would be much worse if the last week was compared to the May average. For instance the 10 state sub-total shows the June average sits at 14,740 per day but the 7-day average is 22,249.
Interesting when you look at the numbers. We are pretty much wide open especially down here on the coast. Short distance from New Orleans and Mobile so caught in the middle. Casino's are slowly making masks mandatory allowing 50% capacity which is really alot of people considering they go by square footage and the casino floors are quite large.
Masks not being worn by the majority from what I can see when we make our neccessary runs out.
We pretty much stay home, no casino or dining out at all right now and I work a reduced schedule 2 on 3 off/3 on 2 off at full salary which is nice, like being semi retired. The Navy whom I work for has mandated for active duty the shelter in place restrictions other than regular duty, basically take out only, no casinos, no gym, no barber/beauty shop, no beaches, etc. Call it HPCON C- because of the rise in cases and will be like this in the foreseeable future according to the Command.
Shout out to @Denmen185 for taking the time to track& monitor this case data. I’m a data guy so really appreciate this type of approach to this discussion.
The one thing I’ll offer is that the # of cases - while certainly a leading indicator - does not necessarily tell the whole story. Layering age (and relative risk) as well as severity of cases is a more helpful directionally speaking as to whether the broader impact to society/economy is improving or getting worse.
Just two examples from my timeline this AM:
EDIT: apologies - not able to post either link for some reason (?))
I certainly think that cases are way understated but would be interested to see why CDC says 10x. In NY study they had the same figure (10x) but I feel that was flawed. Since then (April) testing has increased considerably which should reduce the factor and the testing sample is definitely not "random" i.e. not a total cross-section of the entire population. So the 10x may be impacted on the criteria used in who was tested.
On the age distribution I started tracking Florida cases 55+ but their dashboard has not been available since 6/23 (using the dashboard as a surfboard? 🤣).
Although the 55+ has fallen from 35% YTD to around 20% (good) the total cases in that age range has increased from about 250 per day to 700 (very bad) as the cases have increased from 725 per day to 4,013 per day last week!
I'm just glad we are able to have reasonable discussion on the topic. Much appreciation to everyone for the data and commentary shared in this thread. I believe we will pull through, but maybe not as quickly as I'd hoped.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863 This has some data that shows Covid impact in age groups as of June 17 in the US 92% of Covid related deaths were people 55 and older.