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Comments
Edit to remove the snark.
Let me better explain what I meant. There are some economists who try to create betting lines on important issues to provide monetary incentive for true opinions as opposed to safe opinions, or politically slanted opinions. It also provides incentive to seek accurate data and to make accuracy based judgments on partial or sloppy data. In other words, it is a way to cut out the BS.
I'll take the under. Let's revisit in June.
I don't work in that field, or in things that first reopened last week, but I do have some insight. My hairdresser reopened her salon on the same day things opened last week with several restrictions, then said she either has 9 other examples of businesses in our area that had no choice but to reopen because they failed to get loans/grants, or knows 9 people that had no choice but to go back to work (I'm not sure which one it is, because I just saw the number 9). She had mixed feelings about it, happy to get to do what she loves doing, but also mad at Kemp for doing it as early as he did. Then happy again, and actually has said she feels safe (and someone else that I occasionally see in her salon that works there said the same).
The YMCAs that are in the area have reopened as of today as far as I know with a ton of restrictions. Other gyms are still closed.
This is not Atlanta btw, but it is one of the major metro areas of the state (the YMCA comment paired with major metro area probably gives away my general location if you just do a little research though). From how it has sounded, I think the Atlanta area is going to stay very restricted, or at least try to be (because from how it sounds, a lot of young people in that area are ignoring the restrictions anyway).
Warmer weather isn't supposed to eradicate the virus BTW, it's just supposed to make it decay (and from how it sounds, it needs to be 85+ too with a certain humidity, it can't just be regular spring weather). What's funny however is the way May seems like it's going to act is going to lead to nobody finding out for a while yet on what we might see here. There's going to be a warm stretch from Sunday-Tuesday, then it's going to return to being relatively cool for quite a while it seems.
I truly haven't noticed a difference since the shelter in place took effect as it was before other than I work from home now. Every time I go to Athens the traffic looks like it always has. Of course I'm not in the morning traffic so it could be lighter. The afternoon traffic is not. My company is in no hurry for us to go back into the office and said for us to expect to be working from home through August. I don't expect to go back into the office full time even after this is over as I can do everything from home that I can at the office.
It's not the air temperature so much as it's exposure. Gases, sunlight, etc. Things that don't exist inside a body. There are other factors at play.
my theroy is that parasites and viruses can't really thrive in nature when they're as aggressive as this lil COVID bastard is. I think it will burn through hosts to fast and in several months dissipate. At least that's what I hope will happen.
Hoping you're right but do you really think a disease that has no or mild symtoms in 80% of cases is that aggressive? Serious question. You're in a position to know more than me (low bar but still...). Again, hope you're right.
I'm no doctor or virologist either, so take this with a grain of salt, but I was listening to a doctor one who believes that if this were really as aggressive as its being made out to be, it wouldn't have spread around the world like it has - Mainly because it would've incapacitated its hosts much more quickly so they would not have been as mobile. *shrug * I'm still being cautious about it.
Have you read about the Spanish flu? The influenza part of it isn't what killed 50 million people, it was the post-viral bacterial infections that happened because of the poor sanitation, lack of understanding about germs, and the fact that we didn't have antibiotics yet.
Yeah. I understand that things that kill their host quickly burn out because they can''t spread. Read that somewhere years ago and it makes perfect sense. And yeah, did read that about the spanish flu. Also killed mostly younger, healthly people because their immune system "over reacted". Sure that's not a technically correct term but something like that.
Well there's aggresion in how sick people get and aggression in how contagious it is.
How sick people can get varies WILDLY
But how contagious it is is extreme. It spreads like wildfire. So my hope is it spreads so fast that folks build up immunity, even a little bit, and then it runs out of hosts to infect and dies off.
Our governor here just announced the first phase of re-opening for NH...one of the biggest challenges was how to balance re-opening the state which has a total of 72 COVID deaths to date without having an influx of visitors from neighboring Massachusetts (3,562 deaths; including 700+ in the county adjacent to our border town) flood in as their state remains its shelter in place mode.
To offset this - customers must provide a NH driver's license for services at soon-to-be-opened businesses like hair salons and golf courses. Imperfect solution perhaps, but I think a reasonable approach.
Wishing good health to everyone here, as well as your loved ones -
"So my hope is it spreads so fast that folks build up immunity, even a little bit, and then it runs out of hosts to infect and dies off. "
Sort of like Boise State and UCF football did with the CFB pundits?
The virus seems to take 4 weeks +/- to kill around 1-3% of those it affects. Maybe up to 40% have no symptoms at all with others having similar symptoms as the flu. Therefore probably 50%+ of those infected could travel if they had need. Looking at the pattern in the US pretty much all of the airline hubs are the centers of the state's outbreaks. As the virus is "only" killing 1-3% of the population that means we will be okay once 1.5 to 5 million die!
Potentially some really important news... not a medical professional, but my girlfriend is and she says the important bit is what he's saying around a proof of concept for future drug development.
Is this accurate? Quick look at the top 10 busiest airports along with COVID deaths in that county:
1) ATL - Clayton County (24), GA (1,131)
2) LAX - LA County (1,111), CA (1,982)
3) ORD - Orange County (30), FL (1,268)
4) DFW - Dallas & Tarrant Counties combined (147), TX (782)
5) DEN - Denver County (132), CO (777)
6) JFK - NYC (13,168), NY (18,321) *Technically Queens County but using NYC
7) SFO - San Francisco County (25), CA (1,982)
8) LAS - Clark County data not available, NV (243)
9) SEA - King County (447), WA (801)
10) CLT - Mecklenburg County (44), OH (378)
I think it's more likely aligned with population density...from the NYT database, here's a US map with areas with greatest concentration of COVID deaths. (I believe that's Albany, GA below)
Not throwing shade at what you're saying but those airline hubs are also in the most populous areas. That said, I'm really wanting to go to the US when I can (We currently have no flights in or out) and the thing that concerns me most about making that trip is going through immigration in either Atlanta or Miami. Everytime I've done that it has been packed.