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Every credible scientist says that the wearing of masks would drastically reduce the transmission so how can it be a divisive issue and who's doing the country a disservice.
Are these guys credible?
So, again, the graphs shown were crap, then. The two-outcome scenario that led to the decisions made were really not correct. There are actually 100+ different scenarios, none of which are predictable - even though the smartest people in the world on this subject said that these curves were correct, and outbreaks always follow them, etc.
And the "Southern states," that look nothing like these other places that you described, are "potential disasters," even though their population densities are completely different than MOST other places on the planet where it went sideways.
Let's take Albany, GA, as an example of a place that is typical of the south and IT DID get sideways. This happened with no testing, nobody knowing how to treat, and no one really knowing what they were dealing with until it had gotten out of hand. This is the scenario that you are predicting in 1000's of communities in "Southern states" moving forward. Even though the knowledge of what we are dealing with has improved greatly, as has testing. Even though the general population is washing their hands ALL THE TIME. Using hand sanitizer like a teenage boy uses AX body spray, has cut mass gatherings by about 90-95% and is (sometimes) wearing masks (not at an optimal rate, but there are some that are).
Again - the curves were wrong, then. The graphs. And you are predicting that Albany is about to repeat itself over and over. And, maybe (hopefully by accident) you used the term "Southern states" and left California out of your statement, which statistically is right there with the rest.
New York DID NOT flatten the curve, man. They got overrun - just like Albany - because it had spread before anyone had started any of the countermeasures.
Den - I love your info and your charts. This last post had a scent of "lean" to it, a scent of "doomsday" to it that normally doesn't exist in what you say.
And if you are wondering why A LOT OF PEOPLE are not listening to what is being sold to them, THIS IS WHY. I am an educated, (semi) rational, scientific leaning individual who tries to also use common sense as a blanket for all of this. And VERY LITTLE of what is told to me right now I believe. Especially statements that have a "lean" to them - intentional or not. I will give you a pass, but I feel like I have been handing out "passes" for months.
If anyone - on both sides - can't see why there is so much distrust with the "experts," then they are fooling themselves. I will listen to what the short guy says that's been doing this for administration after administration. At least when he is wrong, he owns up to it. That's about it.
Fox6 or WHO. The article was in May but was based on WHO position in March (very early on the learning curve during a time of critical shortage of masks). Updated WHO position:
Southern States in my definition includes Texas and California.
These are yesterday's reported numbers. Outside those 10 states the positive test rate was 4%. With close to 100 million people, the cases/infection rates from Cal, Florida Texas and Arizona are very troubling. California has just implemented mask wearing required any time outside.
I thought I'd share something which might explain why my concern and worry for COVID has decreased.
I can't tell you how many people we've had come into the hospital for a variety of things, get tested (because we test every single patient now), and get shown as positive but they are absolutely asymptomatic. There are so many now it would probably be beneficial to have 2 classifications of positives of sick vs not sick.
Again, you earned the benefit of the doubt. I have never referred to California as a southern state. And I would suggest that most of the posters here would NEVER refer to California that way.
My home state has shown a tough trend. After hovering around 425 hospitalizations state wide with Covid-19 for weeks and weeks, we have recently seen the hospitalizations almost double to around 800. Now, speaking with actual people in the medical field, the average age and the level of severe cases within this number are much lower. This matches what seems to be a trend elsewhere. I have always felt like the hospitalization rate due to Covid is the number to watch - it really can't be manipulated like some other numbers can. And our death numbers are not worth charting right now because the variance from day to day is crazy. Rolling weekly averages are better, but show no trends.
I think our STATEWIDE testing is still lacking. There is such a demographic change within our state. We have amazing hospital systems that are two counties away from heath care that is almost non-existent. For better or for worse, about 80-90% of our new cases are in 4 counties - Greenville, Richland (Columbia), Horry (Myrtle Beach) and Charleston. Which is where the heath care is the best, the population is the highest, etc. We haven't seen the "Albany Scenario" play out in this state. But our % positive shows there is definitely a great deal of community spread in those 4 counties, and most likely in a bunch of other places.
But here's my whole point. Any predictions moving forward - including those based on TRENDS and CURVES seem useless. They have all been wrong - over and over and over. Remember when New Orleans (and Louisiana) was supposed to go nuts? Didn't happen. Second wave coming? What does that even mean?
Let's be honest - there's a real chance there will not be a vaccine that works. A year from now, the numbers may be the same - some slow spots, some hot spots. When - and who - is going to make the call to move on? Or does this fact mean that school as we know it will never happen again? Sports will come to an end? Concerts? When does common sense practices become the norm, and everything just keeps going? When do you take the "ticker of deaths" off the TV and stop talking about it? Otherwise, lets put up heart disease, cancer, addiction, etc, charts right beside it and let's dwell on death and sickness all day....
And somebody redefine "flattening the curve" for me, please...
If you push the curve down, doesn't the x-axis of the graph get pushed out farther and farther and farther?
Asking for a friend...
If Trump just relented and wore a mask on that pumpkin on top of his shoulders instead of worrying about how he looked, maybe it wouldn't be such a divisive issue. And maybe we'd be closer to stemming the tide of the first wave and he could be on his way to a landslide re-election.
He chose a different way and made it a divisive issue. And now (in June admittedly) his reelection seems less certain
Any advice/recommendation can be politicized regardless of if it is sound or insane. It is our politicians and their political parties, our news organizations, etc. that are doing the country a disservice. Our country is divided on just about every issue and we are increasingly being pushed from the middle ground. I don't say that to justify anything, or the behavior of anyone. Only to point out that we are all merely pawns being played regardless of which "side" you want to choose. Unfortunately, mask wearing and other COVID precaution taking has been politicized. I am not shocked that under the conditions so many are going without masks. In fact, I would be shocked if everyone were donning them.
No
So this image is crap, then...
Glad to know. Cause it was burned into my brain in March...
And if it is crap, then I am basically gonna have a hard time believing much moving forward as far as "predictions" when it comes to a virus...
And, I may be wrong, but I might not be alone...
Having Covid cases over long periods of time is fine and expected.... the problem is when you start to see a spike, which is what’s happening across multiple states.
I’m hopeful testing is to a point where we’re seeing warning signs way earlier in the outbreak in New York.
But it’s the rapid growth in cases over short periods of time that are going to put us in lockdown #2 real quick.
You found a way to blame Trump? And then call him divisive? 🤦♂️
I want to identify who's doing the country a disservice? Over a mask? Then what, mask police or some other form of authoritarianism?
And I'm wondering if you are like me, retired? Where we have the option of staying home and not wearing a mask because we don't need to. I mean when you're in your own house or outdoors mowing the lawn in a 90 degree heat you wouldn't wear a mask. That would be ridiculous.
But if we're still working, you have to wear a mask. If we worked for a company that made wearing masks optional, can you imagine the flood of lawsuits that would occur if someone got sick or worse?
On a related note, I ordered a patio table from my local HD and picked it up in-store. It was missing hardware and instructions, so I attempted to call the manufacturer/distributor. No luck. Eight minutes on hold and I gave up.
And call HD? Fifty rings. No luck there either. In fact, when I went to the store, I understood why. The phone wasn't ringing; they must have turned off the ringer. And they didn't even have a cust svc person working there. Why you might ask? I learned from the mgr that they are extremely short handed. People don't like wearing masks. And earning more staying home than working is a factor too.
Given the choice of working for an HD, especially outdoors, but required to wear a mask. Well let's just say, that most 18-30 year-olds are gonna say "scr ew this, I'm outta here"
So before you pre-judge people who don't like masks, try going back to work and having to wear those dam things. They're hot and uncomfortable. Try that for eight hours, and you'll have my attention.
Fair enough to point out, as it seems it has been copied and pasted in many articles, some of which are mis-using it.
"This “flatten the curve” graph was published in the March 17, 2020 New York Times article “Why We Need to Keep the Curve Flat.” It is not based on data. It is a model of what could happen when people took protective measures. It does not show how many infected people there are, how many will recover, or how many will die. Rather, its purpose is to help people understand why we must change our behavior now so we can experience benefits later. "
I copied the paragraph above from another article explaining it. There is a separate graph that shows expected infections/deaths over time. Very different in volume under the curve.
The area under the curve will not be the same. The flattening of the curve concept was not effectively communicated
It isn't crap. I hate to refer to them as red or blue 🤣 but the thing that isn't apparent is the fact that total deaths in the blue scenario is much lower than the red case. With the red scenario too many die due to lack of availability of proper treatment and many more deaths occur before the advancement of treatment/vaccine. NYC suffered higher mortality rates for these reasons. The other factor is that the US is really the sum of numerous curves due to the sheer geographic size slowing the spread east to west. It is difficult to determine which curve any area is on but NYC had restrictions in place long and strong enough to flatten their curve albeit later than they maybe should have. The other states have had advance warning and definitely flattened their curve but lifted the restrictions that achieved the plateau too quickly. In effect they reached "base camp", rested there but then started climbing again. The key is to again flatten and start to decline before the point of no return is passed. Florida for instance can't contact trace 4-5000 cases a day. That's why I say there is a tipping point that is fast approaching if not already here.
Edit: BTW My confidence is hardly bolstered by the fact that Fl never did update hospitalization numbers yesterday and are still "Not fully Configured" on any of today's 11am report data!
This is why I don’t watch or listen to much of the coverage on this. What are the things medical experts say are most likely to prevent spread/mitigating risk? Masks, hand washing, social distancing, getting good sleep, eating healthy, exercising. I need to know what to do to mitigate risk for myself and my family and expect/encourage them to do those things.
Those are the things I can control. I can’t control public policy, curves, idiots spouting off on television, or anything else. Our leaders are faced with a bad choice and a worse choice when it comes to lockdown. I don’t envy any of them.
So, I wear a mask when I’m out. I don’t care what anyone else thinks about it, or what inferences they make about me.