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COVID-19 Check-in
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This is what I see,
Clicking on Covid specific metrics (bottom right) shows a marked increase since the beginning of June
Den - do you see any correlation across the board - and then any recent change - between case rate going up and hospitalization rate going up, specifically is there a lag? Our SC case rate avg has really gone up over the past 7-10 days, but has re-leveled where it is. That's rate seems to have outpaced our hospitalization rate increase considerably (it has gone up a little, but no where near the same rate - from mid 400's to around 525 now). Curious to hear if this is the norm, and if there seems to be a week or two week lag there. I would think they wouldn't be, but nothing surprises me anymore.
Recently our daily case rate more than doubled almost overnight (250-350 avg to about 600-700) but stayed right there. No curve really. I know our sample size may not allow for perfect curves though.
Positive news is that our death rate has been trending down all the while. Our last week average there is around 5-6. Maybe we'd are getting better at treating this thing.
I read that as there are a lot more asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people in the community than originally believed.
I can say that I know 10 people who have tested positive varying in age from 30's to 70's. No symptoms for any of them.
I haven't tracked hospitalizations except in Florida due to there being no readily available source that summarizes this by state. The thing is early on with limited testing NY for instance was only testing those with severe symptoms so hospitalization was instantaneous. As testing expands the lag will increase and I seem to recall a lag of 10-12 days between initial symptoms and hospitalization with a further 8-10 days lag between that point and possible death although that varies considerably (some died while being admitted while others were on ventilators for 20 days).
The treatment has definitely improved with experience (lessons learned) and better meds. I also think the use of masks may be leading to better survival rates as "dosage" of the virus is lower. After all many vaccines used to rely on deliberately injecting live virus at very low rates.
As of today I have started tracking SC, NC, AZ, MS and AL in addition to the original states but only have daily historical data on cases and deaths so can't look for testing rates and % positive on these additions as yet other than YTD and daily.
FWIW - Florida recorded 3,207 additional cases today which is a new record. The 7 day average was 600-700 mid May ending the month at 726. The 7 day average began increasing 6/3 and has set new highs for 16 straight days. on 6/4 the average was 985 (up 259), 6/11 it was 1,269 ( up an additional 284) and today is now 2,408 (a further 1,139). A classic example of how exponential growth can quickly get out of hand.
Gotta tell you,@Denmen185 , between the numbers crunching you do on recruiting and what you're doing on this, I'm officially nominating you for "essential member" status. Thanks for all of it.
Most cases since May 8. Looking more and more like the second wave is already here
Ours in SC hit a new high today as well. Not sure if I am more troubled by the virus or the impending reaction to it.
Hopefully it means a recommitment to masks and social distancing rather than shutting all business down again.
It appears to be a combo of 2nd wave and expanded 1st wave. I have been tracking the US total excluding NY, NJ, Penn, Mich, Mass and Illinois the sites of the first assault from EU.
The total cases for May (7 Day) was in the mid 14k until the last 3 days when it peaked at 15,659 May 31st. Since that time every day except 6/7 has set a new record with the 6/17 average being 20,693 (a 32% increase). While today's total is incomplete due to awaiting some reports it is already higher than yesterday.
First wave never ended
Odd - when I select the hospitalization icon on the home page, I get this graph/view?
I suggest that it is likely akin to Florida Deaths by date. They seem to enter data by individual and run way behind so it always appears that deaths are declining. For instance the deaths reported by date on June 9th shows 1 death on the 9th. On the 10th it shows 5 for the 9th. 11th it shows 11 for the 9th, 12th it shows 14, 13th 19, and so on until today it shows 24. It appears data entry delays makes the graphs look good when the data doesn't!
Another 2 deaths added to the June 9th total - now 26!
Another tough day case wise in SC. Passed the 1000 case rate for the first time ever. 660 hospitalizations announced, a big increase as well.
Highest positive test count since May 1. 32K. We ain’t out of the woods yet, but I think some people are blocking out the rhetoric.
will be interesting to see if these hospitals start getting taxed again
Purely speculation, but I would suspect that the summer would be a better time for people to get Covid19 because it seems like a higher percentage are assymptomatic or have mild symptoms.
In the winter, if we are still dealing with Covid19, it could be bad, especially if it has mutated to be more lethal or infectious.
Interesting working hypothesis developing where recent increases in tests and positive cases correlate with more people getting tested before returning to workplace (or campuses)...with a corresponding (but not yet confirmed as causal) drop in median age of positive test results in Florida. Pretty striking visual - particularly for a disease that’s so dangerous for the elderly population.