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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
I've been gone for a week... glad to see everyone has changed each other's minds and we're all on the same page now. 😂
>>The other factor is that in Florida the total cases as at June 30th was 150k with 290k coming in July. With an average Case to Death lag of 28 days, 65% of the cases would not yet expect to have resulted in any death determination. Texas and California would also have many deaths yet to happen from cases already confirmed.<<
That is why I said this at the bottom of the post:
>>Now, many of the cases are active in the big three, so the numbers will likely get worse, but they shouldn't get anywhere close to NY or CT or Europe in rates.<<
I don't think you can come close to explaining it with testing. Florida actually had worse challenges back in Mar/Apr. It was extremely hard to get a test. NY wasn't great, but it was much better. We are talking 5-10X here on the deaths.
No It wouldn't but there are some people still running clinical trials for it so we will see when those come out. Focus needs to be shifted away from HCQ.
Florida had 21k cases (11%) at the same time that NY had 203k cases (41%). That indicates that NY was missing at a minimum 75% of the cases that Fl was identifying. If so then with similar testing the NY CFR would have been 25% of what it was. Add the fact that FL deaths are likely to more than double over the next 4-5 weeks that means that the CFR will more than double in FL. The treatment has gotten much better due to steroids and Remdesivir and delaying Ventilator use. I don't see what evidence there is that weather is playing a factor.
Well, you know what they say about statistics. FL and NY have roughly the same cases. Tests per MM are almost 2X in favor of NY. Deaths per MM are 1682 for NY and 268 for FL. FL has over a million more seniors and half of NY's seniors come to FL in winter. NY has over 6X the death rate for deaths per MM! Europe's big five have had slightly less cases than FL/CA/TX and they have had over 150K deaths compared to our big three's 20.55K. That is over 7X. S. Africa's cases and deaths are out of control. If you aren't seeing a seasonal shift in death rates you aren't looking hard enough.
I don't have to look hard to FIND a narrative. I am just a mathematician>
What do you do for a living @YaleDawg ? Are you a doctor or in the medical field? Genuinely curious and apologize if that’s already known around here. I’m still a noob
Not choosing any sides 'cause I am not spending my free time reading studies and peer reviews on a virus that we didn't know existed 9 months ago...
However,
I am humored and entertained by two things here - how much "certainty" is being peddled about a virus that we know 8% about...
And secondly, how anyone in this argument has the gall to call another poster out for "political bias" when it is OBVIOUS that just about everyone in this discussion "suffers" from that ailment.
If anyone wants to disqualify another for political bias, then they have to leave the discussion first...
Glass houses
Pot and kettle
Speck and plank
Just sayin'...
Would it be logical to assume the death rate of the virus is the same everywhere regardless of differences in population density, age, health, etc? Or regardless of climate and geographic differences? Or regardless of treatment advances?
That doesn't seem logical to me. Even if you take the position that you've got to start somewhere, the numbers for NY are so incomplete that it seems an illogical place to start. I'm not advocating for sunshine pumping from the number crunchers, but I can't help but see doom and gloom in some of these predictions.
I 100% admit political bias. I'll let others determine which side I lean.
Can the Mods ask the IT guys to create a "Countdown to Kickoff" time stamp that attaches to each post on this thread?
I didn't say anything about a finding a narrative. I said look at the numbers. NY has over 80% more tests per million than FL. If somebody has missed cases, it is probably FL. FL has a much older population. Now they have more cases. NY has >5X more deaths and almost 6X more deaths per million.
You said i was not looking hard enough.
FWIW a good analyst doesn't just look at the numbers, they look below the surface. You are just looking at one variable not the multitude that go into the result.
Or FL not counting deaths! The Ny testing has greatly improved and for July are way overtesting. I guess that has nothing to do with the 1.1% %Pos skewing the average. Let's be charitable and say it's contract tracing which reflects well on their strategy and make them more reactive to future spikes.
Fried bologna sandwiches have been known to be a diversion of stress. I suggest many of you to take time out of your stress related posting, cook and eat one.
At the math. Conspiracy theories now? I doubt many deaths are being hidden. And, you are coming up with alibis for details that ignore the elephant in the room (sorry)--5-10X higher death rates in winter. By the way, that is similar to how the flu behaves. The pattern isn't atypical. Deaths are commensurate with the spike and you can see that the pattern is similar every year. (from CDC)
You can read more here.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm