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COVID-19 Check-in

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    texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    My daughter is a junior......can't imagine if it was her senior year.

    I'm her high school softball coach and it would have devastated me if this was her senior year.

    Anybody want to buy a prom dress?

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    Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Very likely we do not return to school in SC - and as a teacher that s.ucks. As the father of a senior that really s.ucks. But I always immediately catch myself (and try to remind my daughters) when I say that because I am reminded how many have lost their life or a loved one. It is what it is - and is completely out of our control.

    My hope - as a smaller, independent school - is that we can still have some of those rite-of-passage events later in May or in early June (something that resembles a prom, graduation,etc.), even if they are greatly modified.

    Tex - my daughter was a volleyball/basketball athlete - and was only participating in track for the first time her senior year - so she thankfully was able to compete. My youngest daughter is very active in theater, and had her last performance on March 13th - we shut school down the following Monday. They almost didn't get to perform. There are some senior spring athletes still in shock. And I coach a few very talented juniors with college aspirations - and a lack of an AAU season may really affect their recruitment.

    As for shelter-in-place here in SC - church and school and sports are the biggest changes. Some small businesses are down and many will stay down. Our mall is done - but had been on life support for years anyway. But plenty of things are open, plenty of people are out when I go towards town (which is rare, but is always rare).

    Not sure how different "phase one" will look for most of the people I know. My guys are chompin' at the bit to get in the gym - when will pick-up basketball games be smart? No clue right now. Until school is cleared to open, school activities will still be shut down. And that fact affects A BUNCH OF US...

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    texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Sure glad your family is doing well. Hate it for your senior daughter.

    My son had a bunch of combine camps cancelled and still unsure about college summer camps.

    But he had a Nextgen combine camp cancelled in April that was rescheduled for May 30th. They say they believe that camp is happening.

    Curious and hopeful that it does.

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    Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    If that camp can happen on May 30th, then we have made some serious progress - that would be a great thing.

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    orlandoorlando Posts: 2,322 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Got one daughter graduating college and one hs grad so the situation really sucks but we’re all healthy and will celebrate at home. I feel’ya about the prom dress issue, another bummer.

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    CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I agree with you and I have heard the same thing from folks though fortunately my case was very mild. I don't think we are taking it seri

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    CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I think it is important to look back at history as a guide to how we deal with Covid19, specifically the Spanish Flu.

    Here are two important things that are relevant today:

    1. More people died from the 1918 pandemic than the total number of military AND civilian deaths in WWI
    2. There were three waves of the Spanish Flu. The wave with the biggest fatalites? The second wave - not the first

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm

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    Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited April 2020

    This ain't 1918...

    This ain't going to be 1918...

    0.00653% chance a second wave of this causes more deaths than this wave, in our country...

    I believe in us too much, I believe in our ingenuity too much, and this virus can go eff itself if it thinks it's coming back for a second round worse than the first..

    (Hate to personify a virus, but it's time...)

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    CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Cane, I agree this isn't 1918 in many ways. But, to say there is a .006% chance that a second wave doesn't cause more deaths is not something you nor I know. Evidence to the contrary of what you say is that there is no vaccine yet. Something in support of what you said is the percent of peopel wearing masks today is much higher than in 1918. But, I think to dismiss the lessons of 1918 outright without thinking about them is foolish.

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    CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Very interesting results out of testing in South Korea - some good, some bad.

    1. Bad news - Those who had Covid19, can get it again as several people who tested positive tested positive again
    2. Good news - those who got Covid19 somehow don't transmit it to others meaning if you get it again, somehow you don't spread it to others.

    That is bizarre and I think on the whole good news. The biggest challenge is opening the country up is the secondary spread, which can be more deadly. In thinking about opening the country up, these two points are contradictory, interesting and important. The relatively small percentage of folks who have had it are in for bad news as they are not immune. The rest of the country is in for good news as those folks who have had it, according to the study in South Korea, can't spread it even when they have it. I scientifically don't understand, but science always amazes us.

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    AnotherDawgAnotherDawg Posts: 6,761 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited April 2020

    I haven't checked the CDC's numbers yet, but I did come across this. Out of 7890 reported deaths in NYC so far, a grand total of 42 were confirmed as having no underlying condition.

    No politics. Just facts.

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    Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,407 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited April 2020
    1. The total with no known underlying conditions is 1,999 in the table.
    2. Almost 50% of the population has known pre-existing conditions. Likely there are many more that have underlying conditions but don't know it.
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    BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Doing fine. Thanks for asking. I had reached the point where I was about to get really **** with someone, so I took a chill pill.

    $2.2 trillion dollar stimulus to save 2 million lives = $1.1 million per life. This is mostly elderly and already impaired people who already constituted the greatest drain on our health system before this occurred.

    New study out of Stanford, conducted in Santa Clara county, shows infection rates to be orders of magnitude higher than anyone imagined, meaning mortality rate is likely lower than the flu.

    Meanwhile, one business we own remains shuttered, and the other dramatically reduced.

    Yet you can still ride mass transit in every major city where the outbreaks are the worst. Go figure.

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    GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    This has been an issue for me all along. The data has been so limited. Models are only as good as the data they use. How am I expected to trust any of the models? I know we are trying to do the best we can, but I hope that models are revised constantly as new data becomes available and policy is adjusted accordingly. So far, the models seem to be trending in the direction of the virus not being as scary as we thought. Still nasty, but not what we feared originally. This is a good thing.

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    Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Not ignoring it at all - as a matter of fact, what we know now is a contributing factor to why it won't repeat.

    What our country has done - and is willing to do - is the reason this thing hasn't looked like 1918 the first time through...

    Plus, the fact that 100 years later we have slightly better healthcare, education, communication, diet, standard of living, etc. may contribute to my hypothesis.

    I will say this - with everything we ALREADY know about this crap (which, I will admit is about 11% of the story) and how to, at least, tamp it down - if we have a second wave that is worse that this one, then our country/government/economy/society has collapsed, or at least been greatly decimated, because:

    this thing has mutated to another strain

    or we can't vaccinate it

    Or we discover reinfection can happen quickly and easily and more deadly during the rerun.

    I am a hopeful optimist. But I am a science guy, not waiting for Santa to fix it, either.

    Gonna get better...

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    YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 7,112 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    He was saying people dying from non covid deaths were being counted for death tolls. A conspiracy theory. Most people have some sort of pre-existing conditions especially older people.

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    SupraSupra Posts: 109 ✭✭✭ Junior

    For what it's worth, my reading of the reports out of S. Korea are that reinfections are likely a combination of A.) people relapsing before virus is fully cleared from their system and B.) testing specificity-- when done on hundreds of thousands of people-- is always going to have a few repeat errors.

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    amjadawgsamjadawgs Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Not trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but since Trump insinuated he could override governors, we are getting “ZERO” updates from our 14 hospitals. We were getting 3 updates EVERYDAY until that comment from Trump. I can’t say for certain, but it seems we are heading for a lifting of the “stay at home” order.

This discussion has been closed.