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COVID-19 Check-in
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Gov of SC said yesterday there will be NO FOOTBALL - college or HS - in this state unless the #'s turn around. Be responsible this weekend, guys!
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent
Exactly. As I said it is possible that early on there were many un-diagnosed cases and deaths. The number of presumptive deaths in the early days was much higher than current because of increased testing available. There are still infections that are "missed" which is why there is a multiplier to get from cases to infections. The CDC says that could be 10 which I could see being true in March/April but is lower now now as testing has increased. I said earlier that I think that's 3-4 currently. even though I use 2.5% mortality rate that is cases to deaths so the true mortality of infections to death I would think is in the 1% range (factoring in the understatement of deaths also). I would point out that 1% is indeed a low number but still means 2-2.5 million will die as a direct result of the virus before herd immunity is reached unless cure/vaccine is available. Also, there is no understanding as to how long an individual is protected from reinfection so it's possible that "herd" may never be naturally achieved.
This paper looks at excess deaths to get a better understanding of total deaths. Numbers aren't current though as they stop in May
That actually makes perfect sense. People have been saying for several months that the lockdown and economic impact could be responsible for as many or more deaths than the actual virus.
They never said that but we know that's never stopped you before.
Not sure how economic shutdown causes more pneumonia deaths.
You were saying?...
Heart disease kills way more people than pneumonia. I'm sure you understand the causal link with stress?
I'm not saying more or less, but people have and will continue to die as result of the non-viral impact of the covid.
Dr. Timothy Russell, a mathematical epidemiologist who has been picking apart the Covid19 numbers since the infamous Diamond Princess cruise line, has extensively explored the question of "how can we estimate how many people have been exposed and never even knew it?" His research suggests that the April/ May multiplier would have been much higher than 10x and that the number of exposed Americans is approaching 10%. The significance of his ongoing research is that, if accurate, the spread rate is higher than we realized, a VAST majority of people who contract the virus have no idea (which is probably why the spread rate is high), and the IFR is around 0.1%. This has been independently corroborated by others including a recently published study from Wake Forest.
There are some good arguments on both sides of this.... long run deaths increase, but short term deaths drop during a recession. Policy responses post-recession could play a role in decreasing/increasing long run deaths.
This article cites a pretty good range of research on deaths and economic downturns:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0
Two different looks. You might say that's kind of a micro-macro thing. One looked at long-term while the other explored more " acute toxicity" during the actual downturns.
I find it interesting that the planet tends to even out deaths, even when there are natural disasters. Look at the time period immediately after the Indonesian Tsunami.
What you're saying correlates directly to the controversial article I posted the other day. To rehash, the author suggested decision makers are primarily focusing on the # of confirmed cases, rather than # of hospitalizations, # admitted to ICU and mortality rate. In his opinion, based on the last three measurements it's more prudent to take a targeted approach to containment versus a one size fits all blanket.
I encourage everyone to read how Japan contained C-19. It was a successful targeted approach, loaded with common sense and adherence by a vigilant population.
So you lie about the effectiveness of wearing a mask so hospital workers will be able to get masks because of the influx of patients coming in to hospitals because they aren't wearing masks.? Since if everyone wears masks now the virus will go away, maybe they should have told everyone to wear masks back then and the hospitals wouldn't have been full so the workers won't run out of masks.