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COVID-19 Check-in
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Effective immediately Gavin Newsom is shutting down 19 California counties. This will impact restaurants, wineries, movie theaters & family entertainment facilities, zoos, museums and card rooms. Bars must close all operations. Beaches are closed as well.
The biggest problem is that positivety rates in Az, FL, Tx and Ga are way too high suggesting inadequate testing. The mortality rates in these states will be higher than than the 2.5% as there are so many cases un-diagnosed. Hospitals will be overrun in the next 10-14 days if not already there.
How does high positivity rates in the states you mention suggest inadequate testing? The fatality rate in Georgia is 3.3%, based on 84,237 confirmed cases. But here's the kicker, when compared to the total population of Georgia only 0.7% have been diagnosed with Covid.
It is important to note that ER visits can be misleading. Since Obamacare, newly enrolled people with insurance think they can use an ambulance as a taxi and the ER is just a doctor’s visit. My niece is an ER nurse and has told me about people coming to the ER in an ambulance with a headache but still functioning fine. Not a debilitating headache, either.
Hospital capacity is media hype. They are always near capacity. The hospital administrators have largely been pointing out that their numbers are similar to a year ago. Hospitals haven’t been full for montha because of the suspension of elective surgeries, which is why so many healthcare workers have been furloughed or given diminished hours.
Throwing in the “as young as 18” is the type of thing the media has been harping on in order to keep everyone scared to death. Those are outliers, and also occur with influenza. Very, very few 18 year olds have been hospitalized. I would challenge someone to provide a documented case of a healthy 18 year old being hospitalized. Not a single 18-21 year old has died in the state of Georgia.
Gov. Reeves here in Ms. is probably going to impose tighter restrictions on the county I live in (Harrison) due to we have the 2nd highest infection rate in the state over the last 10 days......
If one of those counties includes Napa Valley, guess my aunt and step uncle aren't going after all.
Edit: Well, it doesn't.
I cannot speak for other hospital’s number of Covid patients, but I can speak for a very large one in the state of Georgia: Numbers of positive cases are increasing drastically. I say this to lead into my next opinion (and keep in mind, this is ONLY MY opinion, we all have one and they’re all different).
The topic: Should I wear a mask or should I not? IMO, that has NOTHING to do with your political stance, nor the different things we read or see on news’ networks. IT’S A “respect for your fellow Americans” – PERIOD! In my area, I would guesstimate (in the area I live and work) that 15% of the population wears masks in public. That’s NOT acceptable! Yes, maybe it’s my severe conservatism that tells me 85% of the people I come in contact with in public refuses to respect the Americans around them, but that’s how I see it. If you enter a public place – PUT ON YOUR MASK – I mean, is it really that difficult? Just for the 5 – 10 minutes you’re in the grocery store, convenient store, pharmacy, etc….?
Sure seems like it for some. If these people who can’t put on a mask fought in WW2 we would’ve lost
It tells you if enough people are being tested to capture the entire outbreak of an area.
In other words......if someone in Texas does test positive........you're saying there is a 97.5% chance of survival?
Again, not trying to suggest this isn't a big deal ....but we are choosing to destroy businesses and livelihoods for something that someone has a 97.5% chance of surviving.
Was just sitting here talking with my good friend. Waiting for our boys to get out of football practice.
He's head of acute care and head ER surgeon at the 2nd largest hospital and trauma center in Dallas county.
He said hospitals and ICUs in Dallas have plenty of room. It's always been a what if this......what if that.
On a random sample based on your data the positivity rate would be 0.7% but in fact was 9.3%. A good measure of testing is to have a positivity rate of less than 5%. This means your protocol is good enough to identify a broad spectrum of severe-mild cases but not "wasteful" . With regard to fatality rates it is important to remember that not all, if any, people will not drop down dead immediately on being diagnosed with the virus. My numbers are based on the number of deaths to date divided by the number of cases up to 20 days prior. The number could be higher if the average lag of the cases is 28 days. The lag will depend on the severity of the cases which in turn is dependent on the the positivity rate as that shows how widespread testing is available (greater availability = greater cases but lower pos rate and lower severity and hence lower mortality rate).
79% of hospitalization in Georgia are in the AA community. Comorbidities are a HUGE percentage of hospitalizations and deaths. How about painting with a more slender brush and target the neighborhoods being affected? Can the CDC really not narrow this down without affecting everyone? My zip code in Dekalb Co doesn’t have very many cases, yet Dekalb is a supposed “hotspot”.
@texdawg I think your percentages are off. It is more like 99.75 instead of 97.5
We are going to look back on this one day and ask.......what were we thinking?
I can't get over the idiocracy.