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COVID-19 Check-in
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The only saving grace is that pretty much every country in the World is also destroying their citizens lives. Except for N Korea. Their people are still pretty much status quo.
The problem is that it's not that simple. 97.5% seems like a really good survival rate, but there are a ton of people in this country.
To reach a point where the virus will start to go away on its own, best case scenario is 50% of the population needs to be infected. That would be 164,000,000 x .025 = 4.1 million deaths.
Now hopefully the death rate is lower than 2.5% (I think most are pretty sure it is), but my point is that when you're making decisions for 330,000,000 people you can't just rely on common sense. That doesn't mean you have to shut everything down, but it does mean we need a plan.
I was saying how you post things without understanding them. This is yet another example.
Here are links so people can go read the articles for themselves.
Yep.....and all these protesters and liberals......not suggesting anyone on Dawgnation.....love all you guys
But those concerned about the wealthy having too much..... and want to share the wealth.....
Keep people from going to work.... or going to games.... restaurants......bars...
Then you'll see a huge redistribution of wealth....but it will be more to the wealthy....
Wealthy can purchase foreclosed or under valued properties. Buy good businesses that are going under.... tons of opportunities for the super wealthy when people are unemployed.
Put your head down, wear a mask, contribute to society, and stay home if you are sick.
Interesting that you didn't quote the part directly under that.
"But the strongest evidence in favor of masks come from studies of real-world scenarios. “The most important thing are the epidemiologic data,” said Rutherford. Because it would be unethical to assign people to not wear a mask during a pandemic, the epidemiological evidence has come from so-called “experiments of nature.”
A recent study published in Health Affairs, for example, compared the COVID-19 growth rate before and after mask mandates in 15 states and the District of Columbia. It found that mask mandates led to a slowdown in daily COVID-19 growth rate, which became more apparent over time. The first five days after a mandate, the daily growth rate slowed by 0.9 percentage-points compared to the five days prior to the mandate; at three weeks, the daily growth rate had slowed by 2 percentage-points.
Another study looked at coronavirus deaths across 198 countries and found that those with cultural norms or government policies favoring mask-wearing had lower death rates.
Two compelling case reports also suggest that masks can prevent transmission in high-risk scenarios, said Chin-Hong and Rutherford. In one case, a man flew from China to Toronto and subsequently tested positive for COVID-19. He had a dry cough and wore a mask on the flight, and all 25 people closest to him on the flight tested negative for COVID-19. In another case, in late May, two hair stylists in Missouri had close contact with 140 clients while sick with COVID-19. Everyone wore a mask and none of the clients tested positive."
You keep relying on those straw man arguments.
That's my point.... there will be casualties....unavailable....but I think we all know it won't approach anywhere near 4.1 mill.
For this economy to work for everyone.....everyone has to work....every paying job is essential.
When 30% of industries aren't able to work.....eventually it will really hurt the other 70%.
It sucks....but there will be loss of life. But it doesn't make sense to shut things down to save thousands.......when doing so destroys millions.
Doing nothing but go on as normal also will cause 30 times more deaths than the number quoted in 2 years let alone in 20 years.
How do you know this?
Gut feeling?
Are these the people who we should expect to self monitor and self isolate to protect others?
Anyone going to the Georgia-Alabama game if fans are allowed?
Getting college kids on campus and away from home is probably the absolute best thing to do.
If they get covid.....they get covid......they'll be fine. And they won't be home to give it to parents or grandparents.
Put professors behind plexiglass shields. It's about time these professors faced some real life hardships anyway.... maybe they'll start having some real life views on things.
I’m not saying they’re going to die I’m saying they’re in the hospital plain and simple. If there is football I think schools will go the Ohio State approach with the waiver, if they already haven’t done so silently not putting that info out there.
Don't know if masks really work or not.....but it's certainly easy to just err on the side of caution and wear one.
Especially if it opens things up. Opens EVERYTHING up.
If it's later proven that they were unnecessary....big deal....if it's later proven that they were very necessary......and many didn't wear them... ..even bigger deal.
Those of us that believe we need to open things up......EVERYTHING......and fight through this.....
Can we not give a little ground somewhere? Pick our battles. Fight closing stuff down.....but don't fight the masks.
Wearing a mask won't jeopardize everyone's financial well being. Closing down will.
The article was based on deaths at the time of 81k and currently sits at 128k. Doing nothing likely means going back to at least April numbers of 60k per month or higher due to geographic spread and higher case base. By June 2021 deaths would likely be:
128 + 12 x 60 x 1.5 (spread) = 1,208k
By June 2022 the total would be increased by another 1,080 to 2,288.
This does not include indirect deaths due to health resources being almost totally used on treating Covid.
By the way the economy will not really improve to any large extent until the virus is controlled as business may reopen but customers don't come flooding back with deaths at 90k per month which is where it will be at "normality".
We can definitely get there without the numbers being thrown around. 60% of the US population is below the age of 45. The known CFR for that age group is not far from the flu. Current CFR for 40-49 year olds in Georgia is 99.22% 30-39 year olds is 99.65% 18-29 year olds is 99.92% 0-17 is 99.99999999%
That's without using any CDC 10x case multipliers.
Open up the World but tell Grandma to stay home until Easter , and the people with heart problems, diabetes, or other issues to be really vigilant.
Understandably most of the topics/hypothesises/models shared here are done at a macro level - which I do believe is the way this should be viewed when considering public policy decisions re: additional restrictions & safeguards - but as we know macro-level theory & policy means little when we as individuals either "feel great or know someone who got it and had no symptoms" or "I had it it was horrible and it claimed the lives of someone I loved": both perspectives are valid.
For what it's worth - my Dad is 77 and lives with us. He's a man of faith so has a different perspective on why he's on this planet than others may have (not saying it's right or wrong - just offering perspective). The concept of what the greater cost is to the country, the economy and its citizens is far more troubling to him than his personal safety. Maybe it's a generational thing, maybe it's his time in the Air Force, but his general position is "Why in the world should I expect the entire country to stop running because I happen to be in a higher risk group? I can stay home if I feel I'm at risk but the country needs to be running and people need to be able to make a living if they want to".
Just another perspective from someone who's in the higher-risk group...