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COVID-19 Check-in
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Why do you expect "We will likely get a return of higher death rates this fall/winter?" Just because they have a higher death rate in the southern hemisphere? What about colder air would increase the death rate? Is this the Vitamin D theory?
Went to a restaurant in ST Augustine last night and my wife and I were the only ones wearing masks
A respiratory therapist neighbor of ours works with her in the same hospital said they have 5 cases and only 1 of those in ICU
Our DAWG family, including all of our "little DAWGS" are all alive and well way out here in San Diego!!!!
Photo is all of our kids, and two of their cousins (my almost grown and large kid niece, and then my little nephew who is next to my youngest son in the front) all with Grandma (my sweet mother in law) on the 4th of July. My father in law is in the background. STAY SAFE Y'ALL!!!! GO DAWGS!!!
I live in PA and the PA Department of Education announced yesterday they are going to mandate the wearing of masks at all times for school children, except when they are eating and drinking if distanced 6 feet from others. My son is supposed to start kindergarten in the fall. No 5 year old (and mine will be six in the fall) is going to be able to wear a face mask for a whole day of school. Now my wife is refusing to let him go because of how unfair this will be to him. Nevermind the fact that parents already had the option of doing virtual learning if they were not comfortable sending their kids into the classroom. I know exactly how virtual learning is going to go for him ... no where. So he is undoubtedly going to be robbed of foundational education and social development. Not only that, by not being exposed to others, its going to make him more vulnerable to other transmittable infections. According the American Academy of Pediatrics (the experts), children are highly unlikely to catch or transmit this virus (https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2020/05/22/peds.2020-004879.full.pdf)
This is clearly a political move, and our children are the victims. I guess our children are always the real victims of politics. This is the last straw for me.
D levels in the general population would be my best guess, but there are a lot of theories as to why cold and flu-like illnesses and death rates ramp in fall and skyrocket in winter. It happens every year. The medical world seems to just accept it. They work hard to treat it, but they don't spend much time worrying about why it happens. This illness appears to be following that same pattern with much higher death rates in winter. If you pull up the case and death rates for countries in the southern hemisphere, they were very low back in late winter (their late summer). Now the death rates in the northern hemisphere have dropped dramatically and the folks in S. Africa, Chile, and Argentina are seeing high winter illness and death rates. NZ and Australia have done a great job of walling out the disease, so they are still doing well by prevention.
I would also point out that there are some other factors that are working to lower death rates--lower average age of people getting the disease, better therapies, increased knowledge in the medical community, etc.
Glad you found a higher purpose in life.
your comment doesn’t go anywhere even with that large amount of DVs. People can still click on it and it shows up. You’re allowed to have your opinion on things and people are allowed to disagree.
It is very unlikely that thus far children would be the source of family infection. They don't go to bars or nightclubs or to dine-in restaurants unaccompanied and haven't been in school. Some do stay with elder siblings while the parents go out or even stay with 1 parent while the other goes to the store. With schools opening that will change as they do bring other viruses into the house. There is zero reason to think this virus would be different.
Bangers, just adding to why I think D levels are critical. Indonesia did a study (still being reviewed) that measured the D levels of 780 CV 19 patients who were hospitalized with serious CV 19 disease. Those with higher levels survived much better than those who were deficient. The Endocrine Society guidelines define D levels as follows: less than 20, they call deficient. 21-29 they call insufficient. >30 they call adequate (all ng/ml). Just compare those numbers to the chart. Yikes. The medical types are arguing about whether it is a random association or a significant one. My personal opinion is--what is the risk in obtaining adequate D levels? Seems like a no-brainer to me. Get a nice tan, or talk to your doctor if you want to supplement! You can overdose with very large amounts.
The BMJ (British Medical Journal) also did a huge study on studies and they found a good inverse correlation from D levels to cold and flu-like illnesses. Moral of the story is get outside and work in the garden, or swim in your pool--get a nice tan without getting burned.
That is not what the study I cited suggests at all - did you read it before you commented?
And your statement that there is "zero reason" to think this virus would be different is a bit presumptuous don't you think? Here are a few...
Anyone that has had a kid should be well aware that they touch every thing the see. They do not have a concept of 6 feet, and often times approach and talk to anyone they encounter, assuming everyone is their friend. They touch their faces constantly (I hardly have a picture of my kids where one of them is not touching their face). They also randomly stick stuff in their mouths. These are all reasons why they are higher transmitters of other infections like colds and the flu. But, as all studies I have seen are showing, kids are not getting or transmitting this thing, and the first of those studies came out way before any country started social distancing.
Numerous other studies are showing that kids exposed tend to be asymptomatic, which would theoretically make them more likely to transmit if they are carriers because they do not have a reason to think they have it and have no known reason to shelter in place.
Sorry for the delayed response.
TL,DR past the 3rd sentence when you made it clear you were about to lecture.
Tread lightly
Since July 1, Georgia has reported 18,824 new KNOWN cases between 10-80+ years of age.
13,865 were under the age of 50
yes, deaths lag but they aren’t going up as “predicted” either. Cases have been increasing for a while now. Deaths reported for the same period yield a 1.7% CFR for all age groups, but we all know IFR is significantly lower because actual cases are exponentially higher. A pediatrician I know said they seldom bother testing the little ones.
CFR under the age of 50 for the same time is Less than a 10th of one percent.
13,865 known cases with 9 deaths
Give it another week This trend will likely continue. If it does, will that change anyone’s minds?
@Bangers studies in Europe are changing the thinking regarding children. They are now being viewed as unlikely to spread.
As usual, the CDC will be the last to come to this same conclusion.
The alternative to keeping kids in school......is far worse than the dangers of sending kids to school.
Kids have to go to school and they really need to be playing sports, band, drama, choir or other extracurricular activities.
Can't rob them any longer. Regardless the consequences.