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Comments
bmauldin. Batting 4th gives a hitter better odds of having baserunners and more particularly, runners in scoring position when he bats in the 1st inning. More runs by far are scored in the 1st inning than any other inning over the course of a season.
WRC+ doesn't suggest that Chipper should have hit 2nd, because WRC+ doesn't give any information into lineup construction.
"Imagine you were a computer and could comprehend a whole bunch of information at once. So you decided to create a landscape of every plate appearance in baseball. The ones with none on, two out, the ones with the bases loaded, zero out, the ones with a man on second and one out, and everything else. Then, in that landscape, you ran an experiment. First, you started with outs. You started in every plate appearance, had the hitter at the plate make an out, and then recorded how many runs ended up scoring that inning (after the out). Then, you did singles. Singles score more runs than outs -- not only can they sometimes drive runners in, but they also extend innings and can lead to runs after the single. And then doubles. And triples. And homers. And walks. And hit by pitches. And then, after you did your experiment for every type of outcome, you just averaged the amount of “runs contributed” from the out versus the single, the double, etc."
WRC basically assigns an average runs scored per single/double/triple etc empirically. It then adds up the expected value of runs scored due to your offensive outcomes. It takes into account the entire run environment in the league and properly assigns some number of created runs to certain outcomes, which is good because runs are the currency of baseball.
If you want to look and see how well a hitter is doing, why bother looking at counting stats, trying to figure out the different relative values of a triple-slash line, or anything else? wRC+ is one simple number that’s already scaled to league average, and even factors the hitter’s home park into account to some extent.
https://www.talkingchop.com/2019/2/5/18202672/baseball-analysis-primer-hitting-sabermetrics
Thanks for the link. I enjoyed it up until it gave me a headache and then I had to quit.
One thing of note, the stats also show if you actually batted everyone in the worst possible position in the lineup it wouldn't affect your won loss record more than a game or two over an entire season. So, a lot depends on how the players feel about where they hit.
I always preferred hitting 3rd because I always knew I would get to hit in the first inning, no matter what.
We should know more Friday night, but I sure hope we didn't waste money on Donaldson. Hope his shoulder was just a one time injury. I had no problem with Camargo at third. But if Donaldson is healthy and can remain healthy, could be a great pickup. Also, Swanson is supposed to play Friday night too. Looking forward to a repeat of 2018 for the NL East champions.
I’m one of the few who has complete faith in Dansby
1. Ender
2. Acuña
3. Freeman
4. Donaldson
5. Markakis
6. Albies
7. Catcher
8. Dansby
So much faith you have him batting 8th ;)
Interesting...
Robbierob You may have complete faith in Dansby, but he's done every little at the plate to earn your faith. He wasn't good the first half of 2018 and he was even worse in the second half. His post all star numbers were worse in almost every detail.
I had hope for Swanson. Never faith. If he doesn't produce then the solution is simple. Camargo, bench and shop Swanson. It's just business.
SS has been weak position offensively across the league right now. Dansby was actually 1.3 oWAR last year with a really poor OPS. Overall his WAR was 2.7 which is much better than his season felt like.
I know WAR can be controversial, but it does give a reasonable comparison across the league of players.
It is a little interesting that a guy like Camargo doesn't necessarily have a starting spot right now with his 3.7 WAR. That's higher than Joey Votto had last year.
Dansby has shown me enough glimpses of offensive talent to keep running him out there for a minute. If he can hit just a little more he'll be a worthwhile guy in the lineup. It can be a better BA, or slash lines or whatever metric - as long as he is in the top half of shortstops, I'd be happy. His defense is pretty good.
Swanson will have to be considerably better to justify not giving the job to Camargo IF Camargo can play the position well enough defensively.
He looked lost the second half last year. His stance, his approach, his knowledge of the strike zone. He looked stiff legged and trying to swat at it the entire month of August.