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COVID-19 Check-in



  • KaseyKasey Posts: 24,459 mod

    death Reporting on weekends is notoriously low and already low on mondays. Death report today and tomorrow should show us the impact of these higher case count

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I live in Nassau county which has 1 death and a population of 100,000. I and my family always wear a mask when going out other than walking in ares that are not heavily traveled (mainly low traffic subdivisions).

    Regarding your comment that your county is statistically repeated thousands of time I would point out that a 99.9% probability of nothing happening repeated just 1,000 (singular) times means a 63% chance of failure somewhere. If you play golf it's like saying I can hit the ball through that tree - a tree with leaves is 95% air so you should be fine - don't try it as 95% to the power of 100 is 0.6% which is about right based on my golfing experience.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Exactly based on my 20 day lag my estimate is 4,000 deaths for Florida and 25,000 for the US for July. Friday numbers which are mainly reported Saturday were also low (administrative holiday in lieu of the 4th) so Saturday, Sunday and Monday were way under-reported.

    BTW my over/under for Georgia deaths for July would be 1,250-1,300.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 5,199 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    >>Mortality rates are low and dropping. 2200 new cases in Ga, but just 3 new deaths yesterday. So I see improvement.<<

    Agreed. I posted this on another thread, but I find it very interesting. The total active cases are up ~ 8-50X since mid to late March in the US, but the mortality numbers are only ~25% of the actual April numbers. (That accounts for the 2-4 week lag between symptoms and death). The actual death numbers have decreased very sharply (~25% of the April #s), but the ratio of deaths to cases has utterly collapsed. CV 19 is *far* less deadly now than it was in late winter (in the US). That's the good news; the bad news is that active cases are exploding, and as they mature we could get an uptick in deaths. Also, in S. hemisphere countries (in dead of winter) at higher latitudes and with significant cases, death rates are increasing sharply. The death rate appears to drop dramatically in summer and increase dramatically in winter. And by dramatically, I mean gargantuan-huge increases and decreases in mortality rates.

  • CaliforniaDawgCaliforniaDawg Posts: 674 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate


    Your second post helps me understand a bit more where you are coming from. Thanks.

    I'd say a few things.

    1. experts have said repeatedly that the increase in testing is not driving the increase in cases as the % testing positive of those getting a test is also going up.
    2. regarding death rates, those do lag 2-4 weeks. On February 28th, Sean Hannity was mocking the seriousness of Covid19 saying there were zero deaths and it was all made up - that the flu killed more people. But then the death toll started mounting because it lags cases. I hope the death rate stays low because it is mostly young people, but it will go up as deaths catch up to cases.
    3. I am one of those folks who are adament about wearing a mask. I hate it actually. But, I see it as my way of helping us have college football this fall and having the ability for my small business to survive. I'm not some altrusistic lover of humans or principals. I'm selfish. I want college football. I need social gatherings to be allowed for my business. It's not about your risk or my risk, but about stopping the spread so we can live our lives and I really, really want that.
    4. On the whole you could kill me comment, it's a bit strong and it shouldn't be directed at any one individual. It is more of an odds thing. Two people wearing a mask reduces spread between them more than one wearing a mask and one not and a lot more than neither wearing a mask. If everyone wears a mask, the virus wouldn't spread. I think you would agree if every American had been wearing a mask consistently since March, we wouldn't like it, but we also would have the virus under control today. It is important to wear a mask before it starts spreading in a community instead of after. It's like wearing a condom before you get an STD instead of after you get one (sorry that is a terrible analogy but accurate).
    5. Back to New York, I think it is fair for them to restrict travel if that helps stop the spread of the virus from roaring back after they worked so hard to fight it. I don't blame them for trying to keep it under control. I think your frustration is more at the mask and the news about Covid19. I don't like any news. I don't like wearing a mask, but I wear one to be part of the solution in stopping spread, not because I fear for my life if I get it again.
  • JayDogJayDog Posts: 5,557 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    How can you spread the virus if you are not sick? Seriously? This virus can be spread by you even when you don’t have symptoms. You may not know you are sick.

    Folks keep throwing numbers out as if to say this virus is meaningless. What I can’t get past is why did Communist China, then Europe, and half the world shut down if this is meaningless?

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,849 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Ignore yesterday as the numbers reported Sat, Sun, Mon are actually numbers reported to DOH Fri, Sat, Sun when most all administrative staff were off hence under-reported. There were 23 reported today. The 7 day average cases as of June 17th was 864 so just using raw number reported today the mortality rate is 23/864 or 2.7%. Tomorrow will tell if this is a good number or not as the holiday impact is "smoothed". Today's 7 day case average is 2,741 a new high suggesting that the deaths July 27th will be 73. I have used 69 in my forecast (2.5%) but would point out that the positive rate so far in July is 13.2% compared with 6% in June . This suggests that cases are much higher than identified due to inadequate testing. The deaths could in fact be closer to 100 per day come the last week of July.

    Reminder - improved (wider) testing -> higher cases found, lower positive rate reported and less severity in cases -> lower death rate per case.

  • LowcountryDawg21LowcountryDawg21 Posts: 3,404 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Please give us a link where Hannity said it was all made up. He said it was politized and the death rate was low. Even your great Faucci was telling everyone to do on cruises be normal etc. in March. You are showing your true colors with that one statement. Pretty sure I saw Pelosi walking around China Town telling people not to worry. Funny how you single out Hannity.

  • DvilleDawgDvilleDawg Posts: 2,427 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Wearing a mask is now mandatory in Clarke County through August 4th.

  • dgdawgdgdawg Posts: 242 ✭✭✭✭ Senior
    edited July 2020

    I work in system analytics for the government and just had an encounter that some on here might find interesting. We were doing performance database and system tests on a government medical system in south east Georgia. Everything was going to plan until we got to the database capability portion of the the test. With C19 happening everywhere, I have been attempting to make sure that security and data accuracy for every system that I touch is at the highest quality. After going through their database, their system was unable to distinguish multiple positive test for the same individual. The table would show name, date, address, positive (Y/N), and notified (Y/N) but could not merge like nomenclature. I asked the admins if they were aware of this for reporting purposes and they told me they would get their engineering team to look into it. I found this interesting because positive individuals take a minimum of two tests for clearance to go back to work.

  • UGA_2019UGA_2019 Posts: 157 ✭✭✭ Junior

    Does calling it a hoax count as saying it’s all made up? You can see him do that (and his flip-flop to say he never said that) in the first 20 seconds here.

    From Wikipedia: A hoax is a falsehood deliberately fabricated to masquerade as the truth.

  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 469 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    But it was OK for Pelosi and Faucci to tell people not to worry about it? As I said that early in the virus most were saying don't worry about it. Faucci and Pelosi actually later than February 28th. The video you posted are also snippets of course.

This discussion has been closed.