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Spain has tested approx. twice the rate of US per capita
We test more, and we have more people. Using raw totals doesn't paint the proper picture.
Per capita aren't we about on PAR with everyone else? In fact, isn't the entire world about the same even though different countries took different steps to prevent? Feels like we are trying to hold back the ocean at this point. Folks are beginning ask how much self harm should we apply to prevent an unpreventable outbreak. And it's a reasonable question to ask.
I've lost all faith in the models. The models most used by decision makers have changed over and again. Their predictive value has been next to worthless. Professor Neil Ferguson, the mastermind behind the model out of the Imperial College of London which was so highly influential in the policy decisions made by British and US governments that he was nicknamed Dr. Lockdown, had to resign because his mistress was breaking lockdown orders to fulfill his passions. How do you predict 2 million American deaths and 500 million British deaths from the coronavirus and not take the lockdown policies seriously? Maybe because the models were based on overly conservative assumptions? Who knows, but the University of Washington models are also being criticized for their inaccuracy and false assumptions. How can anybody just put blind faith in these models? I'm not denying that the virus is real or that it is dangerous, because it is. I'm only criticizing the way this thing has been handled.
@CaliforniaDawg I sincerely hope your business doesn't go to ruin. There are millions facing similar challenges in their businesses in our country now. I serve on the board of a local charity and last night we were discussing on a conference call the idea of moving locations. Sadly, the reality is that there will likely be many new options available in the coming months. I fear that too many people, media, politicians, etc. were so focused on the virus that they had blinders towards every other issue. The world is too complex for such simple and narrowly focused strategies. I understand your aggravation towards those not willing to do what it takes to re-open the economy in a responsible way. Maybe you can now relate to the aggravation I've had towards the idea of a total shutdown from the beginning? Especially based on models that were utilizing more assumptions in their calculations than facts.
I wish you, and all of Dawgnation, well in navigating the uncertainty before us. Whatever your concern, be it the virus, the economy, or something else entirely, there will likely be hard times ahead and I hope you are able to find a good path forward.
@GrayDawg I saw that story! I didn't know much about the Dr it was about. But man, talk about do as I say not as I do.
I've been reading about Dr. Ferguson. Here are some of his previous predictions vs results:
Why on earth are we following this guy off a cliff? I get that the coronavirus has been much more severe than these examples, but shouldn't there be a little more caution in making decisions based on this guy's modeling?
Another nice day in SC after a couple of days of storms/hail/rain. The garden survived.
Our faculty is working a couple days this week at school - separated in our rooms, mainly, and when we meet we are spread out. It is easier to get stuff done, in my opinion, and I can video a few lessons in my room with all my resources.
I believe that if we have to send the kids home in the fall for any extended time, us teachers will still come in, stay separated in our rooms, staying on some type of modified schedule, and teach just as if the kids are in front of us via Zoom, etc. That keeps them on schedule and allows for a little more normal situation. I would prefer that over what we have done this spring.
SC hasn't seen a spike or a real slow down in cases or fatalities. We are testing a lot more. I know our hospitalization rate is still minor - but steady - due to COVID (low 300's). I know I see more people out, and will be anxious to see what it looks like in 10-14 days.
What is happening right now cannot be sustained here. Similar to what Cali said, too many businesses are about to disappear for good. Folks are about to stop paying rent or making house payments. Not sure about others, but I know I haven't seen any type of check from the gov. I don't need it right now, but my school cannot exist like we did the past couple of months, and there is no way anyone is hiring teachers to teach online in the fall. And who needs a coach if there are no sports? I am representative of about 20 industries with similar issues.
Just saw a poll on TV that asked people about "Shelter in Place." 87% of one political party said they were in favor of this. 42% of another said they were. I thought it was almost comical. One group is confident that government will take care of them if they stay at home and stay well. The other feels they need to get out and fend for themselves. I probably haven't seen another graphic this whole time that shows the divide we are struggling with.
I don't think either side is right. There is a median we need to find.
I was looking at several state's reporting of covid deaths. Recent daily occurences show several states experiencing increases of just 1-4%. Illinois and Ohio are exceptions with increases of around 6 or 7 percent. And Penn was the highest with an increase of around 20%. So that's good news. Georgia, btw had 0 new deaths.
This data is a one-day snapshot, so I would also expect some fluctuations with this data.
But what I don't understand is the latest ratio of recovered vs. confirmed cases. In the US, the latest number of recovered is 164,000 vs. 1.24 million confirmed -- about 13% of total. This is a much lower percentage when compared to several countries in Europe where the recovered represents 60 or 70% of total.
Some of that difference is due to timing where surge in number of cases in US came weeks after surge of cases in Europe. But some are not. Some of those cases won't ever show up as recovered IMO.
Are they counting all confirmed cases whether serious or mild? And if that's the case, how many would ever count as recovered since they never got sick? Seems like we're not analyzing this correctly.
Ha! Just had a sparked memory for my fellow Dawgs!
"The conclusions drawn from an experiment are limited by the data collected."
I feel that we are drawing some conclusions from a lot of pretty shotty data...
Which leads me to:
State Science Fair @ UGA. I had a project on display on the floor of Stegman. Hydroponics - the thought that we could grow crops - without soil - in certain solutions... Don't judge me - closet nerds unite!
Anyway, we were supposed to stay by our projects for 2-3 hours as the judges come by. I saw a judge about 15 minutes into this time frame, and got really bored, really quick. So, I started walking around the place, and eventually made it out back.
For anyone who remembers, there was a pretty big covered area in the back of Stegman, and it was raining that day. The baseball team was working out in that area, hitting off a tee, etc. And I just hung out and watched for a while.
My teacher found me, and after a light, good-hearted scalding, encouraged me to return to my project. He later appeared with what you see above - with 19 different signatures matching a roster I found online.
The year??? 1990. Still sits on my shelf in my office today...
Most European countries have tested way more than the US on a per capita basis (UK is a notable exception which is just below the US). For the longest time in the NE only those with breathing issues were being tested so by in large only those hospitalized got a test. Therefore few to none with minor symptoms were tested. Those sent home to self quarantine without being tested are therefore not "Cases" and hence not "Recovered".
The data for May1-5 is as below
The number of deaths for Texas, Georgia, Florida and (to a lesser extent) California are suspiciously low.
There is a new idea being looked into for why some Asian countries weren't hit hard while Europe was. It's possible the European strains are actually worse than the Asian ones. This would also partially explain why the west coast hasn't been hit nearly as hard as NYC was. This is unproven so far and currently being looked into.
That appears to be the case. That is why the main European gateways to the US (NE and Illinois) have a higher mortality rate than the west coast.
The Green column is the cumulative deaths through May 5th / Cumulative cases through April 25th. This allows for a lag between testing and possible death. The 5.9% is a simple rate of death/cases through May 5th. I think the 7.6% is the more accurate mortality rate. The NE (Eu) rate is around 10% while California is below 6%. The rate for Washington State is 6.5% which is pretty much in line that.
I would think that Ga and Fl are more likely to be the Eu strain; not sure what Tx would more likely be but 3.8% it ain't!!!
FWIW The European rate looks to be around 15%+
@Denmen185 I don't mean to beleaguer the point, but I'm still puzzled by the data. True, someone not tested and sent home doesn't constitute a case.
Irrespective of testing, my issue remains why the low number of recovered vs. total cases? Just 13% in the US. Source Google
Yet much higher in parts of Europe: Germany 82% Spain 62%
Source: worldometers.info
Again...
Conclusions based off bad data? Any chance the # of cases is good data? Are there similar qualifications for who gets tested in different parts of our country? Parts of the world?
This number seems "unscientific." The death number is obviously less subjective, but still not as exact as it will be eventually, either. But one side of the ratio is jacked-up.
Denmen - I love your spreadsheets. I trust them, and I appreciate them. I think they work like they should. I do not trust the data used to make them. As a matter of fact, EVERYONE seems to agree that this is a guess.
There are anywhere from 1 to 100 times more cases than being reported. There are tens (at least) of different standards that decide who get tested.
The denominator in the fraction is unknown.
And powers of 10 are a big deal in percentages.
We just don't know.
But I like the discussion with what we have. It is fun to try to figure it out. It just needs a big asterisk, right?
Let me know if I am wrong. It happens a whole lot...
I have posted some of my Dawg paintings before. I just finished this one. Pretty quiet weekends these days, so I’m hitting the canvas.
Again I believe it's the lack of testing etc. In Germany as in SK they test more and quarantine those positive and test before releasing hence they count as recovered. Those in the US that are hospitalized are the only ones being tested (negative) before release. If someone is tested positive but not hospitalized (sent home to self quarantine) and they recover they are not retested so never count as recovered. That's is part of the need to vastly increase testing as well as identifying the positive but less severe cases to get true mortality rates.
Because it can show no symptoms in many people, it’s very hard to get true numbers. I read one research report stating they estimated the true mortality rate at .6%. Less than 1%. Their research showed that so many people had it that didn’t know. You or I could have been exposed and suffered no symptoms. Maybe a minor sniffle.
Some of the civic tests have been unreliable as well.
studies are all Over the board. What has been established is that this disease is dangerous to those over 80. This study states that.
This study also states that Italy for instance underreported deaths. I’ve heard the same thing about Spain. I’ve read that the US has over reported and hospitals have been financially incentivized for positive diagnosis.
The truth is hard to get at here. I can say that of the 1000s of people I’m acquaintances with or know, I know one diagnosed for sure with Covid and she’s pretty sick.
Today was the day it happened. Someone I knew personally and was friends with passed from Covid-19. He had a wife and two young children. If you'd like to help and donate to his gofundme, please let me know and I can send you the link or post it here.
So ready for this **** to be over.
Kasey
Send to me please
@Kasey, I'm sorry you lost a friend. Send me the link please.