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It seems like we should be able to get accurate death numbers. I know a lot of rumors have gone out about over reporting by hospitals trying to get higher reimbursement rates from medicare/medicaid. Having seen a little bit of that world, I don't know how many would risk filing fraudulent claims. That theory doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
Why don't we test every death for Covid-19 for the next 12-18 months? If you have a positive test you report it, if you have a negative test you don't, but there shouldn't be a category for uncertain. Maybe have a separate column for people who test positive but clearly died from something else like a gunshot wound or drinking too much fishbowl cleaner. It frustrates me that we have such shoddy data with so much on the line.
The letter shows that 61% of those that died had hypertension. This is hardly surprising given that 70% of adults 60 and older have hypertension.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4768730/
To go along with the fraud risk, there is a bigger financial incentive to under report covid cases. There is a net loss of a few thousand dollars per Covid patient. Hospitals can charge insurers up to around 30k for covid related treatments, but the most severe patients run into the 70k range. The indirect incentive is lower numbers makes it seem like the virus is under control or dying off. This would allow hospitals to resume elective procedures and actually make money.
We don't have enough tests to go around to waste on people that have already died. We need to start producing enough to use on people who want to rejoin the workforce as well as people who get sick.
Fair points. There are many financial incentives to get the economy up and running again. However, just because the incentives are financial doesn't mean they are invalid. I don't condone fudging numbers to make it happen, but I wasn't for a shutdown even with astronomical death projections. The issue is a weighty one to be sure.
I agree with you - this would seem pretty simple to confirm with a test - even postmortem.
I think the CDC guidance - although likely well-intended - provides enough flexibility that allows hospitals to classify deaths as COVID without a positive test result. It reads:
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In cases where a definite diagnosis of COVID–19 cannot be made, but it is suspected or likely (e.g., the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID–19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed.” In these instances, certifiers should use their best clinical judgement in determining if a COVID–19 infection was likely. However, please note that testing for COVID–19 should be conducted whenever possible.
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I understand the need to have such language, but the total % of probable C19 deaths in the NYC count is eye-opening: as of 6 PM on Tuesday, there were 13,938 confirmed and 5,359 probable deaths from COVID-19 in the five boroughs (nearly 30%).
Full guidance from the CDC site can be viewed here:
I'm all for discussions on when to open the economy and how we should do it. What we don't need is people lying about numbers to justify their positions. I agree with you completely on that.
I agree that numbers are under reported. Prime example is up until now only hospitals and nursing homes are reporting the deaths. There are significant numbers that have died at home or before getting to the hospital which are not counted. NY is looking at death certificates where Covid is listed as the COD but are not included in the totals. If you recall there was a huge increase in NY cardiac arrest deaths in March/April which likely was due to the virus but not shown as such. The lack of testing also means that early on a number of deaths were deemed influenza before the virus was even recognized as being in the country and no tests were available. Illinois is reviewing their January/February deaths to see if these were in fact covid related. This seems plausible given the high level of Flu deaths were attributed to vaccinating for the wrong strain this year. France also now thinks it may have been in Europe during late 2019.
Yeah we're likely going to end up with a range of probable COVID-19 deaths based off of an analysis of how many people died with COVID-19 like symptoms that is statistically significantly higher than what we would expect at certain times of the year. It will probably leave no one happy, but you can't give exact numbers with those types of analyses.
DHEC in SC every day - in our newspaper - confirmed cases in SC and then in the next sentence gives probable cases in SC as 10 times that amount. Is this being reported elsewhere? Just curious...
Graydawg, we've had some great conversation on this thread and i have really appreciated it. I've always understood the frustration about shutdown and don't need convincing. I'm also frustrated by those who early on and again now who mock those who take it seriously. I want us all to practice good hygiene (Baxleydawg was right about its inportance) and take precautions so we can reopen without unnecessary death and healthcare expense. I fault more than anything the fracture in our nation that divides us into either/or answers when most Americans, I believe, want to take Covid19 and our economy seriously.
My wife, who is from China, has said over and over that Asians have worn masks from the beginning and didnt understand why the rest of the world was so slow to use them. She feels this is a big part of the reduced spread in Asian countries.
I need sports... I need them.
I don’t like watching tv and have nothing to do at night.
I’m I’m going to end up having a fourth child if the sports ban isn’t lifted soon.
Lol - anyone else going through socks at an alarming rate? I just wear socks around the house and I am wearing a hole in the bottom of one at a rate one or two per week!
On a related note - my company just canceled its 2020 holiday party which was scheduled for December 5th. We have offices in here in New Jersey, Florida, Rhode Island and Montreal that come to the party. The hotel that we have the party at wanted a financial commitment to pay for the facility whether or not the party could be held but the company president did not want to take that chance.
Socks and me have a love-hate relationship. If a sock loses elasticity, gets a hole, or just doesn't want to cooperate in some other way, I label them quitters and they go in the trash. It's a never-ending cycle dealing with the quitters.
So you are obviously pi$$ing your wife off less than I am during shelter-in-place...
Lol - my wife thinks that "work from home" means "work for her at home'"...
I need this to start back so I can actually make money! Unemployment checks still haven't come in.
UV on the gif, not the income gap!
Any idea when Team Kasey might consider a return to NYC?
PS - definitely off-topic, but Colin Peterson the energy vampire from the FX series "What We Do In The Shadows" is the new Debbie Downer. Available on Hulu and very funny mockumentary-style dark comedy shot like The Office & Parks and Rec about a group of vampires living in present day Staten Island.
We are waiting until we hear word about our jobs opening again. So far we haven’t heard anything
Here's hoping it's sooner than later for you guys...(!)
Speaking of NY - I've been digging into a lot of data re: % of total C19 deaths by state that were in long term care (LTC) facilities. Pretty remarkable #s for many states, with a majority of deaths in a majority of states coming in LTC facilities:
Connecticut 81%
Pennsylvania 67%
Massachusetts 60%
Maryland 60%
North Carolina 60%
Virginia 57%
New Jersey 50%
Not necessarily surprised that the elderly living in a self-contained facility are more at risk than others living outside, but surprised at the %s as well as the fact that 2 of the top 4 states - NY & MI - are not reporting this at all (?)