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Covid 19 on the down trend?

law_dawg35law_dawg35 Posts: 1,140 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

Alot of news sources are saying Covid 19 is starting to show a down trend. This is great news, or is it to early?

I think its great news this early in April. Maybe by the end of April we can start getting back to normal.

Discuss...

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Comments

  • dgdawgdgdawg Posts: 142 ✭✭✭ Junior

    I've heard reports that is saying that the bell curve is flatting out. Still have to take safety measures to prevent a second wave though.

  • Raiderbeater1Raiderbeater1 Posts: 2,894 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    If the curve flattens based on us isolating it’s just going to spike whenever we restart normalcy.

    Its not going to disappear.

    its inevitable unless we stay quarantined past an inoculation point. That’s not realistic.

  • DogsNotDawgsDogsNotDawgs Posts: 1,061 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Things flattened a few days ago in micro hot spots like New Rochelle NY and Montgomery Co. PA. Now also in wider area hot spots like NYC hospitalizations slowed but not lagging statistic: deaths.

    Not near normalcy by end of April. Too early.

    Talked to customer in central Jersey.His friend was at a bar with his brother March15. The brother is now dead. Ditto someone in his church. Both cases it happened fast. We talked about having lingering chest colds.

    My son easily landed a nice wage at Walmart but I woke up thinking about the risk-reward and my daughter, who has cold induced asthma talked him out of taking the job

  • GeorgiaGirlGeorgiaGirl Posts: 1,272 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited April 8

    That's why, while I don't see a shutdown for months, I think its likely we re-open slowly after a couple weeks of downtrend with changes that are going to be in place until a vaccine is approved (which is why I go back and forth on sports). Major screening where its thought to be needed, both with same day tests and antibody tests, continuing to regulate keeping your distance in public areas, maybe if there's enough tests, trying to contact trace, if there's enough tests, and if we do see the "rolling spikes" shortly after opens that some have suggested to me, starting out by quarantining the higher risk.

    These are not things that we can do now, but maybe with progress over the next 6-8 weeks or so with the tests and figuring out which treatment works, we can.

    I go back and forth on the idea of sports, but I think the rest of regular life will head back to normal sooner rather than the much later I've seen suggested online of "staying shut down until potentially when we have a vaccine", just with changes.

  • GrayDawgGrayDawg Posts: 1,346 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    There are so many mixed signals out there right now. How can anyone state with any certainty one way or the other? This may change certain lifestyles for the foreseeable future. How long will it take for people to go watch a movie in a theater? Go to a sporting event? A work conference? Until a vaccine is discovered or this thing gets figured out in some other fashion, I don't expect life to go back to normal but would gladly accept some large steps in that direction.

  • Casanova_FlatulenceCasanova_Flatulence Posts: 2,526 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    According to an interview with Dr. Birx this morning, the trend lines are starting to flatten in certain areas. Places like Seattle, Los Angeles and others who jumped on this early, the signs are good. In other places like Chicago, Detroit, NYC, New Orleans and others, it's still sketchy. It's looking like the original morbidity models of 100K - 240K are on the high end. Dr. Birx thinks will come under those numbers.

    IMO this is no time to stop or slow down social distancing. Any back to work program should be implemented in Phases. We've still got a ways to go. In terms of when life will go back to 'normal' - nobody knows. I think we'll need a vaccine to calm the masses.

  • Filo_BettoFilo_Betto Posts: 210 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    I live here in Italy and we're just now seeing the beginning of the end of this thing (hopefully).

    Just my observation and talking with many of the locals, I think tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands were exposed to the virus before the government shut everything down.

    Many folks were very sick and recovered, many more had only mild symptoms and an untold number were asymptomatic.

    When we get more data and more are tested we'll likely find out why some people had a natural immunity to this and we'll be able to collect blood/antibodies from those individuals and fortify those who are especially susceptible. As much attention as thing is getting, I'm confident that we'll be able to mitigate the most severe cases the next time the virus comes around.

    Once the data is in and we have some proven mitigation strategies we will just need to manage risk for the most vulnerable going forward. To return life to normal, however, we'll need the state legislatures and congress to provide businesses acting in good faith some immunity from civil lawsuits filed by patrons and employees.

  • DawginSCDawginSC Posts: 591 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Not in the US. We had nearly 2000 deaths in the US yesterday.

    This shows the world and US in reported cases:


    This shows the world and US in deaths

    It's possible the cases are leveling... but we've only seen that for 2-3 days. That's not enough to know if we're hitting the top of the curve or just having a pause before it goes up more. And even if cases are leveling off, deaths will keep going up for a week or more.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 13,859 mod

    I think people want to microwave this process, but it's a crock pot experience. We are gonna have to wait a few more weeks for more data to roll in. As always, i'm hoping this is the start of the flattening

  • ghostofuga1ghostofuga1 Posts: 5,504 mod

    Georgia has extended the SIP(Shelter in Place) until April 30th. I have a 93' Jeep Cherokee Laredo 4x4 $3000 or possibly considered trade for toilet paper.......

  • pocoyopocoyo Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Hang on to it. When I finally get there, I can bring you all you want. (Not so) fun fact. Nicaragua has no (zero) flights arriving or departing.

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 2,917 mod

    While flattening is a good trend what needs to happen is it to curve downward at a consistent pace, if it does that hopefully Mid May will be the time to ease up on the current restrictions, IMHO Memorial Day would be the date. I just don't see a virus this contagious easing up until then.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 13,859 mod

    Looks like it’s happening now in Italy who we are about ten days behind. As someone with no medical experience whatsoever, I’m just flying blind and hoping for the best.

  • DvilleDawgDvilleDawg Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • DawginSCDawginSC Posts: 591 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The issue is Italy basically instituted a nation wide shutdown. In the US we appear to be handling it in a state by state basis.

    South Carolina (where I live) just started their shelter in place on Monday. I'm not sure if if every state has done it yet. That might make things take longer to start trending downward for us.

  • KaseyKasey Posts: 13,859 mod

    this is true...could hit states at different times. I know in nyc hospitalizations are down and they've been shelter in place for a few weeks. I admittedly try to jam square peg good news into round holes

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 6,528 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Since this is a football forum I'll keep it to football.

    The issue with all the states and all the regions being on different time frames is that it pushes everything back.

    Things could possibly be getting back to normal in some regions by the middle or end of May. Teams in some states may be ready to get back to practice or start recruiting....while other states aren't ready yet.

    Until all programs are in the safe and clear....the NCAA won't open things up.

    People may be able to start going back to work in certain areas of the country by mid May (hopefully) but that doesn't mean every school is in a reasonable position to start football activities.

  • ghostofuga1ghostofuga1 Posts: 5,504 mod

    Things still going good here. Only 2 confirmed cases in my county as of noon today, but who knows.

    Wife and I went out today a took a walk. Certain campground on the lake is still open for exercise. Great walk and actually nobody was there. As usual, all non-essential businesses are closed. Fast food doing drive through, some locals are doing takeout and curbside only. Really feel for them too. My work has completely shut down and no income in a month. Applied for assistances, but the red tape isn't working fast enough for the needs.

    Still have food and TP, so we're good for a few weeks. Hope this sh.it runs it's course. Doing my part....hoping everyone else is too.

    God Bless....Go Dawgs!!

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