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Covid 19 on the down trend?
law_dawg35
✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
in General
Alot of news sources are saying Covid 19 is starting to show a down trend. This is great news, or is it to early?
I think its great news this early in April. Maybe by the end of April we can start getting back to normal.
Discuss...
Comments
I think it is leveling off in parts of Asia and Europe, i.e. Italy, and they are hoping it is leveling off in NYC. We have not seen the worst of it here in Georgia or in much of our country so we all need to "Keep Hunkering Down" until further notice.
I've heard reports that is saying that the bell curve is flatting out. Still have to take safety measures to prevent a second wave though.
I love your optimism. Stay positive. But to speak in the common tongue here, we're probably not at the 50-yard line of this thing yet.
I've been led to believe that April 16-19 will be a big few days for the state of Georgia and its fight with COVID-19. Let's see where we are at after that point.
Stay safe and well. Keep washing those hands. We've still got a whole lot of chopping to do here.
Prayers up for everybody in this fight.
If the curve flattens based on us isolating it’s just going to spike whenever we restart normalcy.
Its not going to disappear.
its inevitable unless we stay quarantined past an inoculation point. That’s not realistic.
Things flattened a few days ago in micro hot spots like New Rochelle NY and Montgomery Co. PA. Now also in wider area hot spots like NYC hospitalizations slowed but not lagging statistic: deaths.
Not near normalcy by end of April. Too early.
Talked to customer in central Jersey.His friend was at a bar with his brother March15. The brother is now dead. Ditto someone in his church. Both cases it happened fast. We talked about having lingering chest colds.
My son easily landed a nice wage at Walmart but I woke up thinking about the risk-reward and my daughter, who has cold induced asthma talked him out of taking the job
That's why, while I don't see a shutdown for months, I think its likely we re-open slowly after a couple weeks of downtrend with changes that are going to be in place until a vaccine is approved (which is why I go back and forth on sports). Major screening where its thought to be needed, both with same day tests and antibody tests, continuing to regulate keeping your distance in public areas, maybe if there's enough tests, trying to contact trace, if there's enough tests, and if we do see the "rolling spikes" shortly after opens that some have suggested to me, starting out by quarantining the higher risk.
These are not things that we can do now, but maybe with progress over the next 6-8 weeks or so with the tests and figuring out which treatment works, we can.
I go back and forth on the idea of sports, but I think the rest of regular life will head back to normal sooner rather than the much later I've seen suggested online of "staying shut down until potentially when we have a vaccine", just with changes.
There are so many mixed signals out there right now. How can anyone state with any certainty one way or the other? This may change certain lifestyles for the foreseeable future. How long will it take for people to go watch a movie in a theater? Go to a sporting event? A work conference? Until a vaccine is discovered or this thing gets figured out in some other fashion, I don't expect life to go back to normal but would gladly accept some large steps in that direction.
According to an interview with Dr. Birx this morning, the trend lines are starting to flatten in certain areas. Places like Seattle, Los Angeles and others who jumped on this early, the signs are good. In other places like Chicago, Detroit, NYC, New Orleans and others, it's still sketchy. It's looking like the original morbidity models of 100K - 240K are on the high end. Dr. Birx thinks will come under those numbers.
IMO this is no time to stop or slow down social distancing. Any back to work program should be implemented in Phases. We've still got a ways to go. In terms of when life will go back to 'normal' - nobody knows. I think we'll need a vaccine to calm the masses.
I live here in Italy and we're just now seeing the beginning of the end of this thing (hopefully).
Just my observation and talking with many of the locals, I think tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands were exposed to the virus before the government shut everything down.
Many folks were very sick and recovered, many more had only mild symptoms and an untold number were asymptomatic.
When we get more data and more are tested we'll likely find out why some people had a natural immunity to this and we'll be able to collect blood/antibodies from those individuals and fortify those who are especially susceptible. As much attention as thing is getting, I'm confident that we'll be able to mitigate the most severe cases the next time the virus comes around.
Once the data is in and we have some proven mitigation strategies we will just need to manage risk for the most vulnerable going forward. To return life to normal, however, we'll need the state legislatures and congress to provide businesses acting in good faith some immunity from civil lawsuits filed by patrons and employees.
Not in the US. We had nearly 2000 deaths in the US yesterday.
This shows the world and US in reported cases:
This shows the world and US in deaths
It's possible the cases are leveling... but we've only seen that for 2-3 days. That's not enough to know if we're hitting the top of the curve or just having a pause before it goes up more. And even if cases are leveling off, deaths will keep going up for a week or more.
I think people want to microwave this process, but it's a crock pot experience. We are gonna have to wait a few more weeks for more data to roll in. As always, i'm hoping this is the start of the flattening
Georgia has extended the SIP(Shelter in Place) until April 30th. I have a 93' Jeep Cherokee Laredo 4x4 $3000 or possibly considered trade for toilet paper.......
Hang on to it. When I finally get there, I can bring you all you want. (Not so) fun fact. Nicaragua has no (zero) flights arriving or departing.
While flattening is a good trend what needs to happen is it to curve downward at a consistent pace, if it does that hopefully Mid May will be the time to ease up on the current restrictions, IMHO Memorial Day would be the date. I just don't see a virus this contagious easing up until then.
Looks like it’s happening now in Italy who we are about ten days behind. As someone with no medical experience whatsoever, I’m just flying blind and hoping for the best.