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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Well, I just got my Covid19 test results back and they are negative. I was pretty sure of the results as I don't feel any symptoms, but got the test in order to facilitate my entry into Sweden on Wednesday. Wish I could have gotten tested in early March when I am pretty sure I had Covid19 but I repeatedly tried to get a test and I was denied due to a lack of available tests.
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The article implies people are camped out in ERs. Just saying that's not the case in all ERs looking at the ER times. I assume if people are camped out in ERs waiting they wouldn't show 9 min wait times encouraging people to come in with minor issues. Someone linked a National news story about 3 hospitals in Clay County FL having no rooms left in ICU. My wife works at one of them and our good friend at another and neither are full and have only 4 cases between them and none in ICU. The 3rd isn't really a hospital and ships cases that need ICU care so not sure what they mean by 3. Sometimes the news overstates is my point.
My initial thought regarding the article @YaleDawg linked is that the writer is guilty of really bad reporting; however, he quotes an MIT researcher directly saying the true fatality rate in the US is 1%.
So this leads to a few relevant questions:
Both the CDC, and now MIT, are saying cases exceed more than 10x the number of known infections. MIT is looking Worldwide, but the CDC’s stat is domestic. Georgia has 111,211 known cases as of yesterday. 2965 deaths. What is the true number of infections? 10x that? Interestingly, the CDC guesstimated a 0.26% CFR weeks ago. Multiply the known cases in Georgia by 10, and then calculate based on attributed deaths. Yep 0.26%
That would also mean more than 10% of Georgia has already been infected, with the infection rate in Metro Atlanta likely staggeringly high.
MIT says double the number of deaths, so really 6000 people have died of covid in Georgia? Over what time period? It seems implausible for that many deaths to be unnoticed during this time period. These are just “phantom deaths” of asymptomatic people who slipped under the radar?
6000 deaths would still not equal 1% fatality if the 10-12x multiplier is used, so clearly the MIT studies numbers were not intended to be used in the manner reported in the article - or else their numbers are wrong.
Another example is Peru. Pop. 34,000,000 The 16.6 estimated infection rate would mean 5.6 million cases and a 1% fatality 56,000 deaths Peru has reported 11,000 deaths. Peru is a pretty developed country. There is no way they have missed 40k deaths actually caused by this disease.
The MIT researchers then chose to intentionally wade in to political waters when they first state a huge number of phantom or unknown/unverifiable deaths, and then flatly state government officials could have prevented the majority of these unverifiable deaths by imposing strict preventative measures sooner.
Somewhat amusing to include numbers out of Iran as a source of reliable data. They were lying thru their shawls in March and April.
For a facts-only discussion, including this MIT study, (or at least the Boston Globe’s review) seems to fall a bit short of the mark. You just can’t reach a 1% CFR in the US without including a crap-ton of unverifiable assumed deaths of people who would have been seemingly asymptomatic at the time of death.
It's a commentary on the situation that we are in when rational people from all walks of life have become skeptical of EVERYTHING they read. Every stat. Every article. Every report.
I say again, the most massive failure in all of this is the media.
So the mistake a lot of people make trying to estimate the fatality rate is including the most recent cases for a disease that takes about 2 weeks to kill on average. Given this lag it's appropriate to remove the last two weeks of confirmed cases to calculate the CFR. Doing this for the US gives a CFR of 7.7% which factoring in for serology results gives us .77% infection fatality rate. Now the MIT study said that deaths were 50% higher (not doubled). Factoring that in to the above calculation gives you around 1% for the IFR. The problem is I can't see the methodology they used for determining true number of deaths since the paper hasn't been published, so I can't make any claim on how accurate it is. It's also not really great to apply global percentages to individual countries but it just happened to work in this case. As far as the CDC IFR goes .26% was the low end estimate and I think .54% was the high end. Many experts think its higher.
Implying they made numbers up for political purposes is a serious accusation that can't be backed up until their methodology is examined. I also don't think they made a political statement when criticizing 84 countries with governments all across the political spectrum.
Please refrain from saying academic research doesn't contribute to a fact driven discussion because you disagree with the outcomes. It's fine to disagree with results if there are methodology issues or with their interpretations of results since that is by nature subjective.
Not trying to tell anyone what to do, but ran across this story and it reminded me, very much, of some of the discussion here. Take a look.
Definitely an upward trend in new hospitalizations, but the percent capacity is kinda crazy. Do they also have ICU numbers or is that included in CCU?
As I have stated a number of times I use 20 day lag of cases to deaths when predicting deaths. The consensus seems to be 4-6 weeks from infections to be reflected in deaths. Obviously it takes time to add this infection as a "Case". This varies by location. Dallas for instance it takes 4-14 days for symptoms to develop then 3-4 days to get a test then up to 10 days to get the results so in most cases it averages about 3 weeks from infection to case. In the more severe cases they are probably being hospitalized and tested before the original test results are confirmed. I would say that these cases would be identified in 2-3 weeks. Post hospitalization if the case ends in death this is averaging 2-4 weeks so deaths lag cases by that amount.
If testing is more readily available then the lag would be more like 6 weeks. Here cases are identified more timely and case to death is more like 6 weeks.
Therefore the states with with low positive rates should expect a lag of about 40 days while those with high positive rates are more likely 15 days, hence my 20 days. Again as testing is ramped up this will move to more like 30 days average.
Nick Cordero tested positive in April but died in July. This is why just dividing deaths by cases to date is almost meaningless especially when infections are rapidly growing.
Exactly. I don't have a rigorous methodology like you do, so I just use two weeks to be conservative.
Here is the full report. I recall there being some issue with finding the ICU number, but I don't recall what it was. I'd give credit, but the real name is not provided.
Florida Update today.
Cases - 10,360 with the 7 day average 9.208
Hospital - 421 the third straight day over 400. 7 day average 327 which sets a new record for the 10th straight day. On 7th of June the low point of 107 was reached so this has tripled in the last 5 weeks.
Deaths - 95 bringing the total for the last 3 days to 308. May 6-12 was the last time we had this many in a 7 day period!
With the cases for July through today at 102k and the last 20 days (lag period) 157k the last few days of August and more so the month of August looks very bad.
No one can really tell as some are not going to the hospital until it's too late so they have 0-5 day lag. The higher the positive rate and hospitalization rate the shorter the lag. Texas and Arizona likely are shorter than average lag while NY now is likely much longer due to widespread testing. Florida results above suggest that they may be less than 20 days as the deaths for the last 3 days are higher than the cases of 20 days ago would suggest. The cases 6/19-21 total 11,365 so I was expecting the deaths for the last 3 days would be 217 but were 308. This means the CFR is higher than 2.5% or the lag is less than 20 days so you may be right. This could be due to Florida being more like AZ and TX earlier than I thought.
Do you follow the Miami Dade New Normal dashboard? Yesterday it said we were over 97% icu bed capacity now. Our positive rates have consistently been 25% and higher. Pretty rough.