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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Comments
Seems like it “adjusts” tue-thu. This week should be an indicator of how deadly this go-round will be.
or it could be next week. I guess at this point the virus tells us
Nah....where else? 🤣
I have deaths exceeding 1,000 Wednesday and falling back during July, The model doesn't factor in the day of the week so it May be Tuesday and drop over the weekends but the 7 Day will remain over 1,000 from the 21st on ending the month at 1,457 per day with the last 3 days being just over 1,500 each day
Just found out my cousin in North Augusta has it. He’s doing fine so far, but could probably use the prayers. He’s a Clemson fan, but don’t hold that against him
My wife has 2 high school friends (both mid 40's) message her the last 3 days.
A couple of anecdotal but encouraging reports. A college age niece and and a ~40 yr old nephew just had it. The niece said it caused less severe symptoms than a common cold, very mild. The nephew got pretty sick. Headaches, fever, muscle aches, coughing, but fortunately nothing more serious. He was quite impressed by the kick CV 19 gave him, but I think he is still considered a mild case. The Jekyll and Hyde nature of CV is causing the stark difference in attitudes some people have formed. You can talk to ten people who were barely sick and then it kills a healthy 35 year old.
Glad he is fine. He might be the first person you know who has tested positive, but you know lots who have been and had no idea.
That’s called the Pinocchio model.
This week will tell a bunch. While not as great as the overall increase in cases, the rate of growth for deaths in FL, TX and AZ is accelerating. Best case scenario is that the acceleration in cases doesn’t have the same follow through in deaths. Based on the data I am skeptical.
It will indeed. I noticed an error in the earlier post, I meant "NOT falling back in July". Sorry about that guessing brain cramp!
Your post made me take a closer look at the reporting. I chose Florida for no other reason than that's the data I am most familiar with being I live there. Allowing for the 1 day in arrears reporting (yesterday's data relates to deaths for 7/11) I found the following:
As you can see, there are big differences (both ways) between the day reported (-1 day) and the now reported deaths for that day. The difficulty in projecting or even looking at the trend is that it is unclear whether the difference is due to:
I realize that cumulative adjustments are common and to be expected periodically and that reporting was likely sporadic over the 4th weekend. However, the last 4 days as reported total 353 while the deaths on the graph show only 89 for that same period. This makes predicting very difficult as well as getting any idea about the lag from case to death.
Again, i don't think Florida is the exception. Virtually any death graph I have seen on any states dashboard make it look like they are trending down even when numbers are increasing. Whatever the reason for this I think that the process needs to be improved so that we can all be aware of actual numbers. At the very least don't show the graphs which are clearly based on incomplete data.
Here is a good one. I previously reported my son tested positive. As of yesterday we were glad to hear he feels no more symptoms at all. He really only had a fever and body aches. On Saturday his older brother (Graduated from UF but had UGA bed linens in the dorm and is a true Bulldog) decided he needed to be tested cause he had some contact with his little brother. He went to a drive up site in Jacksonville at a local High School He checked in they got his information then a guy hands him a swab and tells him to swab inside his nostrils. He asks 'you want me to do it myself'? The guy says "yes". He says how far to I stick it in. He says pretty far but don't jab it into your brain. He told me he assumes he did it right. I am curious what the results will be.
Same as the test my wife did at Georgia Tech in ATL a few months back. She was crazy sick for two weeks but never had a fever, all the other symptoms, even loss of taste. Came back negative (10 min later).
Great. Well at least the guy at the testing site has a “job.” I hope that isn’t the norm for testing in Florida. If that’s how it works then why doesn’t the State just mail everyone a test or hand them out at grocery stores?
10 minutes? That definitely wasn't a PCR test then.