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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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@Dawgsince76 I was taking a shot at those individuals from that “school?” down there in Gainesville. However, Covid-19 is serious, and it is sad, and it is scary too. Prayers for each and everyone of all of y’all. Laughter is good medicine, right? It’s always a good day to poke at those swamp creatures. Blessings to you and yours. Seriously. All jokes aside. My most sincere prayers are with everyone in the pandemic.
@Bankwalker This is from earlier post. The data through yesterday is:
CFR(20) is the Case fatality rate obtained by dividing the Deaths July 1-12 divided by the cases June 11-22. That is both 12 days with an estimated time between case and death of 20 days.
CFR(30) is similar but with a 30 day lag so is Deaths July1-12 divided by cases June 1-12. Those states that are blank are the ones that I started to more closely follow from June 17th and so will be added July 17th when I will be able to get the divisor.
The lag will vary by state. Those with high %Pos will likely have a shorter lag as many are not diagnosed until they are suffering severest of symptoms. If you recall back in April NY and NJ were 40% of the cases and over 40% of the deaths. The lack of testing meant that you could only get a test if you were needing hospitalization. The %pos for those through April 30th were NY - 34% and NJ 48%. The lag there was probably less than 20 days and the CFR higher. As testing becomes more widely available the %Pos declines as you are testing people with milder symptoms so more cases recover and deaths lag more. There 30 days is a better guide and the CFR both lower and more accurate as you cover more of the infected population.
The study in NY in April indicated that the infections were 10 times more than the Cases which I could easily believe given the number of obviously sick people who didn't qualify for a test (basically you had to have been to China and have all of the symptoms particularly respiratory problems). Today, in the NE tests are readily available so you get a lower %Pos longer Case-Death lag (identified earlier) and lower multiplier (you get a much higher % of the infections). I would doubt today that the multiplier is above 5 and probably is in the 3 x range.
I would think that where the %Pos is over 15% the infected people are probably 10x the number of cases. The states with a %Pos of 7.5 or less likely has a multiplier of around 5 or less.
Long winded YES; accurate - who knows; will we find out - YES (hopefully)
Interesting side note to the table - If you look at Florida the CFR(30) is more than double the CFR(20). Since the numerator is the same (deaths July 1-12). that means that the cases June 11-22 is more than double the cases June 1-12. This is a sign of exponential growth in cases that will ultimately be reflected in exponential growth in Deaths.
Sorry there is math in maths!
This is assuming 0 hospitals get overwhelmed, which might be a little bit of wishful thinking, however...
The question was, "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US?"
Texas cases are increasing......no doubt......but very few are dying from it....
.01% are dying. 99.9 % chance of survying....
Can't imagine playing football with that staggering death rate.
Maybe Texans are just a little tougher than others. (Although I'm actually a Georgia boy)
Sweden never shut down and now have 5-10 times the loss of population than their neighbors and their economy is collapsing because no-one is going out.
California has just closed 30 counties.
@texdawg Sad to say but I think you need to put a "YET" in there somewhere. Phoenix is now overwhelmed in their ICU. The Covid Nurse Patient ratio is up to 1:3 in ICU in some hospitals which is about double the number of patients each nurse should attend to. Supposedly the numbers going to ICU is still increasing as is the number of nurses contracting the virus. It is without doubt that treatment has improved but the best medicine in the world is no good to those that can't get it!
Roughly 4% have died of the confirmed cases in the U.S., all good for you unless some1 in your family dies from it.....hoping that will never happen.....being on the front lines down here everyday 1 death is too many.....let em play is all right with me people just have to understand this ain't no joke.....
Let me be clear......I do not think it is a joke...never have....but I believe the CDC is currently saying covid 19 has a death rate of .01% and that they are including all influenza and pneumonia in that death rate.
All life is precious.....would never suggest otherwise.......but the death rate seems awfully low to be shutting everything down again.
But, this is just a dummy's point of view.
We'll all know in due time......may take a few more months......what the death rate really was....my money is on it being incredibly low.
3.3 million plus confirmed cases times 4% equals 132,000 deaths we are at 135,000 and counting a lot more than .01% but believe what you want...…….but right now it is 4% of confirmed cases
California is well on their way to fully shutting back down again.
They might very well have postponed their Italy/NYC problem just to late this summer instead of never.
Please don't DV Texdawg. I obviously don't agree with him but don't believe his comment warrants multiple DV
IMO UV = Agree. DV = personal attack not disagree.
Yes, please avoid DV's. Doesn't advance the conversation.
There is some truth in both positions. Tex is close to right, but for Texas. Their total case death rate is just a little over 1%. When you add in the very high death rates from northern states from winter, the death rate is much higher for the whole country. Look at FL as another interesting study on death rates. FL is second only to CA in the number of citizens over 65 (CA does have ~twice the population), so one might expect a staggeringly high death rate. However, FL has a tiny fraction of the deaths per 100K cases compared to many of the European countries (Britain, Spain, Italy, France) and our northern states. Based on the age of the population, FL should have a much higher death rate, but those states and countries have 5-10X the death rates of FL currently.
Yeah downvotes serve no purpose on any comments. Should not even be an option....
I promise.......if you strongly disagree with me and engage in dialogue with me instead of a DV.....I will not be a b.u.t.t. head.
I won't promise that I'll agree......but I promise to listen ......and I'm open to learning.
Can't learn a darn thing from a DV.
I hope you're right but my theory is different. The problem started in Wuhan which is a major manufacturing/exporting region in China. It spread to Europe with hubs in Italy (Milan), UK (London). France (Paris) and Spain (Madrid). The cities mentioned are the major financial capitals in Europe. Then it spreads to the US via New York. Italy's numbers exploded as it spread internally and more recently Spain, France and UK seem to be on the same track as Italy but 10-14 days behind. The US is another 10-14 days behind Europe and by sheer size it will take longer to spread country-wide. The West coast probably received a "glancing blow" due to travel from China mainly going to NY entering LA, SF and Seattle as transit stops not integration within the communities. Washington and California could get a second wave Late April.
The Federal government needs to set nationwide and MUCH MORE STRICT standards and order a universal stay-at-home policy else we will see 5,000+ daily deaths before May 1.
Sobering thought, if you exclude the US and instead treat each state as a country NY would be #3 in the world.
STAY HOME, STAY SAFE, SANITIZE
The above is my post April 2nd (page 35 of the original thread for those that feel the need to check 😂).
I obviously greatly underestimated the impact of the geographic size of the US but I still believe that the spread we are seeing today is a result of spread from Europe into the NE. Obviously with the spread being slower than predicted the 5k per day is hopefully not going to occur. This is due to staggered peaks vs overlapping peaks.
FWIW I failed to recognize that the population density in Europe is 3.5 times that of the US making their spread being much more rapid than here.
I was so tempted to DV this comment just for gits and shiggles.
The fellow who produces the charts I've shared as an fyi in the past has decided to take his talents to
South BeachYoutube. Since they can be found on their own now, I wont link them anymore.