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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Meanwhile, the FDOH continues to publish data different from yours. 11.85% positive rate for newly identified cases yesterday


  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I posted her comments that directly go against what that video is trying to convey. Why do you only take her word in that video but not the other?

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Why do you not understand that it doesn’t matter what she said? The issue is that this has been happening, not whether or not someone is trying to find and correct some of the “mistakes.”

    They won’t find them all. They probably won’t really even try.

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 9,798 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Because it is absolutely consistent with what I'm hearing.

    Tell me this. .....in all honesty.....

    Take out nursing home deaths and deaths of people with serious underlying conditions (not suggesting those deaths aren't important... they are.....but we could concentrate efforts to keep the vulnerable population as healthy as possible)

    In all honesty..... how deadly do you think this virus really is?

    I realize some healthy individuals of all ages have died and will die from covid.

    But in your honest opinion......how deadly is covid to a relatively healthy person age 70 or younger?

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 9,798 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    And @YaleDawg .... which video was recorded first? Could she not be back tracking because she was told to do so?

    She seemed pretty darn clear in that first video.

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 3,839 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Tex, I know you asked Yale, but I thought I'd chip in some info. In Florida (the most 65+ citizens of all states, outside of CA, which has almost twice the population) about half of the deaths are associated with nursing homes. That would be about 2550 non-nursing home deaths. But, let's just take R. Jones' numbers for cases as of now: ~363K. So 2550/363K gives us about .007 *currently*. Easy number to remember. It's important to realize that many of the cases are recent so deaths per cases could increase and it doesn't consider other health ramifications. But, it is also useful to remember that most of the deaths in the .007 (7 tenths of 1 percent) were probably very sick and older people. If you are heathy and less than 60, death chances are probably extremely small. And let's not forget Florida should have the overall worst stats of anybody (except CA) because they have the high risk population.

  • YaleDawgYaleDawg Posts: 3,806 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Bankwalker provide evidence this is happening on a large scale. I have yet to see any.

    What she is saying is absolutely consistent with what I have posted on this thread. Two numbers are important. Those who died with and those that died of COVID-19. She works at the Illinois state department and in the first video was describing what gets reported to them. The second source was her saying what actually ends up in the official counts.

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 9,798 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    I'll ask you again......how deadly do you believe this virus is to healthy people under the age of 70?

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    HIPAA laws really hinder (and I hate to use the term "hinder' because they are designed to protect our privacy) us from seeing a clearer picture of what is going on, and I truly think there needs to be more transparency.

    If we had more DETAILS about these deaths, we would understand more. DHEC in SC only separates out middle-aged adults (35-65) and elderly adults (66+) when reporting deaths (also young adults and children, but thankfully they are very few and far between). The vast majority of our fatalities are in the second group, and the vast majority of those deaths are in the higher ranges of that group, and the vast number of those deaths are associated with assisted living and nursing home facilities.

    There are no details on anything else. No preexisting conditions connected to the ages. No demographic information. No socio-economic information. No gender information. No blood-type information.

    And those categories are REALLY, REALLY broad. There are plenty of 60 year-olds who are older than some 75 year-olds I know. And that "old" 60 year old is in the same category as my wife and I at 45.

    A 1.5% or a 2% fatality rate DOES NOT APPLY across the board. For many, many groups, that rate is VERY, VERY low. Like orders of magnitude lower. And that scary stat is being used - in some instances - to dictate policy and, dare I say, scare some into irrational decisions.

    So, we are not shown THOSE LOW RATES. I would think the more detailed numbers would go a long way to EDUCATE the general public, and REASSURE them that they - and their children - are not being stalked in the dark. I would think the more detailed numbers would go a long way in keeping talking heads from SHAMING AND SCARING (sorry, I introduced words of bias and opinion here) policy and decision makers from denying young kids their opportunity to be educated and compete.

    We should be doing both things right now - and by we, I mean the responsible leaders of society, represented and served by an unbiased media - emphasizing the need for mitigating measures (masks, washing hands, backing up off each other WHERE POSSIBLE) and providing some type of transparency into how "safe" a large majority of our population is.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    California just announced that they are going to a 4 tier priority on testing.

    From (poor) memory

    1. Hospitalized
    2. With symptoms
    3. Essential workers
    4. All others.

    Those in tier 4 will not get results until turnaround time for 1-3 is less than 48 hours (so may get the test but not likely to get results anytime soon)

    This will cause their positivity rate to increase as they will be now testing the group(s) most likely to test positive. It will also cause their CFR to increase in about 3-4 weeks as the cases will contain less positives with mild or no symptoms.

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,830 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    BTW... My friend and his wife...

    Have basically recovered. Just a review - he is a 48 year old educator, and his wife is 48 and works in a doctor's office. She was symptomatic for almost 2 weeks - loss of smell and taste, aches, fever, MAJOR fatigue (was in the bed for about 3 days). He had a cough and fatigue for about 3-4 days with an asterisk I will talk about. In a non-Covid world, she would have missed a week of work, and he says he would have pushed through and probably kept working (amazing how much that attitude will change moving forward!).

    Interesting detail - he is allergic to bees (not epi-pen allergic, but usually some adverse reactions) and got stung doing yard work towards the end of his symptoms. He said his reaction was 10X worse this time than he ever remembers. He had a bad 24 hours almost after the sting - the worst stretch by far of his infection.

    He is VERY excited to be through it now with the school year coming up (let's hope the immunity lasts for most of the year).

  • BumBum Posts: 479 ✭✭✭✭ Senior

    I think hindsight will show quite deadly, but not from infection. From mental health issues stemming from mass layoffs, failing businesses, which I predict will far outweigh the impact of healthy folks getting COVID. Like my colleague who died last month. All I can find out is “it wasn’t good” but I know without knowing what happened. Heck...I even had to get counseling in April to help cope with the fall out. I’ve never come anywhere close to needing counseling in the past.

    We need studies of COVID impact on mental health.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Read the line above the second set. It clearly states Positive for the first time as a percentage of all the people tested that day. That means it includes those who are repeat negatives.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    NY is going to phase 4 reopening tomorrow. This allows most businesses to reopen but still does not allow Bars or indoor dining. It has a mask mandate so is basically akin to what I think is the path forward. I will be watching to see if they fare better than the other states/countries that have reopened.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    LOL. Now I’m going to ask you to read the same thing again, and this time please take note of the comma at the end, which is then followed by the words “EXCLUDING PEOPLE WHO HAVE PREVIOUSLY TESTED POSITIVE.

    So if you’re retesting because you previously tested positive, then all of your future tests are excluded Including the negatives

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    @Denmen185 I believe NY will fare better. The virus may have already burned out there. R-factors never took “susceptibility” under consideration. This is not truly a novel virus. That’s why it is primarily killing the people that are already in the high risk class to be one of the 1.5 million who die every single year of heart disease, cancer, copd, ****, and diabetes.

    We’ve never tried to spend $2 trillion to stop those things, and those numbers repeat every single year.

    If I’m wrong and it does spread again then New Yorkers should burn the governor’s mansion if they try to shutdown again, as it will be obvious their efforts are futile.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 6,480 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Last of the last 🤣

    At a LTC facility the 10 employees are tested every 3 days. One tests positive. The total tests for the month is 100. My method (per CDC) says that for August the infection rate was 10% (1 in 10), Yours (per DOH ) would say 1% (1/100) positivity. I will always use my method but if you prefer the DOH method then just ignore mine. Just don't say that 100 residents of the state have been tested and one was positive.

    So if we test the same person 22 million times tomorrow we can confidently say that we tested the entire population of Florida and got zero positives! Not attacking you but showing the FLDOH testing data is misleading

This discussion has been closed.