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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0

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Comments

  • dawgnmsdawgnms Posts: 5,222 mod

    JACKSON, Miss. (WLOX) - Across the entire state, there were 1,032 new cases of COVID-19 and 24 new deaths reported Friday.

    3rd consecutive day of 1000+ cases and increasing deaths

  • texdawgtexdawg Posts: 11,581 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Best post I've read in a while. Wish more Americans had this attitude.....

    Of course....many do..... don't want to discount them. But we need more of this.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    What happens when the kid goes home to Grandma as Mum is at work! The kids tested in Florida were 1/3 positive of 51k tested!

  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    What happens when the kid spends ALL DAY at Grandma's because Mum is at work and they don't have school, then goes and plays with his friends that evening in the front yard?

    The same risk, except in one scenario, he/she gets educated.

    If Grandma and the kid are seeing each other regularly, then that risk has already been assumed.

    C'mon, Den. How long do you want to keep kids away from each other? You site stats all the time, and research all the time. It's not hard to find research on development issues with kids - of all ages - that do not socialize, miss discipline, and have no routine.

    I work with kids. I know kids. I have watched kids - from all backgrounds - grow up as they interact with each other. And I have ALREADY seen the toll this has had on teenagers and rites of passage.

    Mum need's to stay away from the grandkids for a while - and when she sees them, it can be outside about 10 feet away, upwind.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    To follow up on my previous post...

    I am not crazy. There are some places that need to be "virtual" for a short time. But it ain't everybody. It ain't most places.

  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    What is your theory as to why Italy has only 200 cases per day after having multiple numbers of deaths per day? Same for Spain and France etc. The EU with 440 million people got their cases down to under 5,000 per day; what magical drug do they have that allowed them to do this? No need to answer, NONE!

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • Denmen185Denmen185 Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Not a statement just so everyone can get an idea of how spread works. If 1 person somehow gets infected on day 1 and infects 2 others 1 day 4 and 1 day 5 before they exhibit symptoms if indeed they ever do and the cycle is similarly repeated. This table shows how the virus spreads.

    You can see that by the end of the month 633 people are infected and based on current apparent mortality rate 16 people will likely die the following month.

    This obviously can be challenged on the assumptions but I just wanted to show how just 1 "case" starts a branch of the tree and not just lead to 2 or 3 infections. Everyone needs to do whatever necessary to stop the spread! BTW the branch continues to grow until it's stopped.

  • AnotherDawgAnotherDawg Posts: 6,762 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • Canedawg2140Canedawg2140 Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    Let's just all stay at home and hope someone else brings us food and water. That way we won't kill 16 people next month. And make sure we don't let anyone else do anything that might cause the same fate...

    "Whatever necessary." That's a terrifying statement...

  • PerroGrandePerroGrande Posts: 6,181 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
    edited July 2020

    The exponential spread can also be challenged by herd immunity. Sweden didn't mandate masks and they didn't lock down. The virus ramped to a point and then it appears to have hit the HIT (herd immunity threshold). The article I linked yesterday had an elaborate and lengthy discussion on the subject. If it wasn't HIT, it was still some type of cliff that caused it to roll over. If your spreadsheet was valid, we would have seen an exponential jump in cases in July as the virus took off in an unprotected country with a large increase in cases. I will link the Sweden graphs below again so folks can see what I'm talking about. And as I mentioned yesterday, it could also be seasonally driven.

    The virus is currently burning out and deaths are plummeting in Sweden with few countermeasures taken. In most of the places that had a really bad time with the virus--NY, Italy, Spain, UK, etc., the numbers appear to be doing the same. I would love to believe it is masks and other preventive measures, but I'm beginning to think it is actually the HIT at work. If true, FL should be peaking soon and TX shortly after. We'll see. I appreciate your work, BTW. I'm just trying to see what's really happening with CV 19.





  • flemingislanddawgflemingislanddawg Posts: 597 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    Seems like they were major hotspots even though they locked down early. Started opening up in May. Maybe everyone got it.

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    As far as “magical drugs”, I believe Spain, France, Italy, UK, and Sweden all used the same “magical drug.” Please correct me if I am wrong.

    Which of those countries has handled the plandemic correctly, and which has not?

    Lockdowns in Norway, Denmark, and Israel have saved lives up to now, but the list of countries to add to the same list is small. We also don’t know if their results will last.

    Interesting numbers here. The socialized medical systems of Europe currently have the highest death rates per million in the World

    Deaths per million people

    Belgium. 845

    UK 666

    Spain 608

    Italy 579

    Sweden 556

    France 462

    USA 429

    I could see Georgia losing almost as many people as it has already, but all that would really mean is we did all of this and still had the same outcome as Sweden.

    The US can catch up to the UK’s ineptitude with another 80,500 deaths, provided the UK doesn’t have another wave that adds to their totals. I can also see the US losing that many more people, but I think it will be less.

  • Old_lady_dawg_fanOld_lady_dawg_fan Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    We have a close friend of the family positive and ill. We're quarantined awaiting test results on my husband. At least our medical system is being forced to change for the better. I had an unrelated medical problem yesterday handled by an OTC test at home, virtual doctor visit, and pharmacy pickup without leaving my car. To me this is a vast improvement!

  • BankwalkerBankwalker Posts: 5,348 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate
  • PedroPedro Posts: 373 ✭✭✭✭✭ Graduate

    The interesting data I have seen Yale dawg is the increase in number of deaths versus previous years. It shows average deaths for previous years during a period and 2020 deaths for the same period. I haven’t seen it for all of the US, but have seen it for other countries. I recall there being nyc data.

    If memory serves there has been an increase in deaths above the quoted numbers for Covid. In nyc it was believed fear of going to the hospital was leading non Covid patients to forego treatment, but in countries like Mexico it was believed there was Covid undercounting,

    Is this stuff reported anywhere?

This discussion has been closed.