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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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It is pretty easy to find.
I get this is an emotional issue that is affecting our lives, our kids lives and our economic well being. But it seems disingenuous to quote friends and neighbors that are "well respected" doctors and medical professionals in the community, but completely disregard our nations top medical professionals and organizations that are going on record publicly (often making mistakes, but willing to put their name on it and own it). Screams of believing the folks that fit our narrative to me.
No hate here. This sucks for my family too. But it seems like there are a lot of folks that keep quoting the people that make them feel vindicated, and crapping on the people that dare say something to the contrary.
And, in one simple post, Boss sums up our entire discussion...
It's great fun , isn't it?
Let the banter continue...
It’s why he’s the boss
Tough to read that post, I feel so horrible for your kids. Luckily my son is still a couple years away from entering school. If there’s a silver lining here, this is an incredible opportunity for your kids to learn life-long lessons about the dangers of blind trust in government. I’d be interested to hear more about what your kids and their friends are thinking right now. If you don’t want to share that here, I certainly understand as well. Be well Tex, no shame in that reaction
Thank you for asking.Just uncertainty. More so for my daughter. She missed prom last year......possibly homecoming this year.....and this is her final year of softball in the spring. This is her one and only senior year.......am I selfish.... absolutely. I wouldn't be if it was for a noble cause........
And there is no reason to believe it will be any better in the spring......I mean the decision making won't be any better. And it is unlikely there will be an effective vaccine.
My son doesn't know what to think. He still has time......just a sophomore .. football coach is looking into practicing in a neighboring county. Most of Our competitors can still practice because they aren't in Dallas county.
And for what? We will look back on this time and wonder why we made these horrible decisions.
Here's a daily snapshot/month-to-month comparison of the testing numbers, positive results, and deaths, through yesterday:
July 16: 830,918 tests, 71,229 positive (8.6%), 977 deaths (1.4%)
June 16: 463,137 tests, 23,435 positive (5.1%), 729 deaths (3.1%)
May 16: 362,120 tests, 24,701 positive (6.8%), 984 deaths (4.0%)
April 16: 163,798 tests, 30,923 positive (18.9%), 2,141 deaths (6.9%)
March 16: 17,924 tests, 1,569 positive (8.8%), 21 deaths (1.3%)
If these numbers are correct, things are no different today than they were four months ago, other than the increase in testing?
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily
So I try to post the daily numbers with no spin. Admittedly, testing has been setting records which means positive tests has as well. But the last few weeks positive % has been higher than it was which is troublesome. Deaths have slowly started to inch up. Hopefully, deaths can stay under 1K but over the last few days it’s been going up.
Me personally, I’m concerned. Taking politics and conspiracy theories about hospitals profiting off of this, if the deaths continue to rise...we could be in trouble. Hopefully it’s nothing and we can all soon get on with our lives.
I've stayed out of the political debates entirely. In fact, I think this my first post on this thread. I looked up the info and was surprised by what I found.
This is a good read and explains the reimbursement system for COVID-19. Basic gist is that hospitals get paid for the care provided and the increased payment only applies to medicare patients. There is no financial incentive to mark everything as a covid death.
Edit: if a medicare patient tests positive and is being treated by the hospital, the hospital will get an increased payment. Doesn't matter if they live or die.
Apolitically, to me a reasonable way to measure Covid's actual impact on death is the excess death rate, one measurement which is here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm. Compared to expectations, somewhere between 125k to 169k extra deaths in 2020 so far.
So, is there fudging of data because of hospital incentives? I don't know. But there is a significant increase of expected deaths in 2020 so far. We will see if it continues to increase going forward.
@YaleDawg I do appreciate the information you continue to provide. I really do.
And I really don't disagree with most of it. And quite honestly . ...how could I. The reality is.....I simply don't possess the knowledge about covid that you do.
And much of what I have learned from people I know and trust ... seems consistent with what you have been saying.
My big differences.....
1. I don't doubt that shutting down the country for a few weeks would work. But I believe that it is absolutely impossible with the size of this country(mass) and size (populatuon) and because of the freedoms we have as Americans. People came to this country for freedom.......and it's in our citizens DNA. The thought of shutting down is ridiculous.
2. And regardless of the info you provide. .....I trust my friends when they talk about how covid deaths are reported and compensated.
But I absolutely mean no disrespect to you and certainly don't believe you have ulterior motives in what you post or believe.
As is obvious to everyone.....I'm just simply extremely frustrated because of the experiences my kids are .... and will continue..... to miss out on because of certain policies.....I realize I'm selfish and not alone in my frustrations.
I apologize if I come across as disrespectful to your knowledge and beliefs... it isn't intentional.
It is impossible not to “spin the numbers.” People spin the numbers just by which numbers they choose to present.
As it pertains to percentages, why is the increasing positive test rate important if you are going to dismiss/ignore the declining fatality rate?
Deaths, as a percentage of cases, have declined sharply. Nate Silver cherry picks the same way in his daily posts that you share. It seems like CFR was the most important statistic when this thing started, but it continually gets dismissed in importance as the percentage continues to shrink.
If someone were to chime in again with a post about automobile deaths, the response would be “but the number of deaths vs the number of miles driven is small, so the hard number of actual automobile deaths is misleading.”
Rhetorical questions: How many of those excess deaths are covid related but the person did not have the virus? In other words, how many are more lockdown related than covid related?
Excess deaths also have a way of balancing out in future years, particularly when the excess deaths are weighted toward the elderly and compromised.
How does anyone “know” anything about this virus they personally didn’t experience? We rely on reports that at best are limited in scope. People on both sides can shoot holes in every thing we call evidence. We are only four months into this pandemic and do not have enough to prove much.
The people who want to open up full throttle believe there is no danger it seems. That is opinion, not established fact. Many of them have been saying there’s no danger since January—which makes their conclusions now suspect.
My first question is, if this were Ebola, would you still argue that we should open everything up to protect the economy— despite how many people could die? My second question is if you lost a child to COVID would your position on it change?