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COVID-19 Check-in 2.0
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Agreed. And my wife teaches elementary school - I don't know how this will work w/o availability of the rapid test. My Son will be heading back down to Athens in just under 2 weeks - assume if he doesn't/didn't have it now he'll get it pretty soon.
The cases in July represent 42% of all cases nationwide since March 1st. In Florida (where I live) the total cases through June 30th was 152, 434. It now stands at 487,132 over 3 times as many in just 33 days. Given the lag in deaths it is difficult to be anything other than realistic about the current situation. It is especially annoying to hear the "optimists" celebrating the turning of the corner due to declining cases when it's either due to unrecognized events or, worse, manufactured ones.
It doesn't help that the Florida Dashboard has been down for 26 hours now.
It could be worse; my stepson is headed to Gainesville for his final semester 🤣🤣
July Florida deaths to date
Deaths reported for July (July2-Aug 1) were 3,472 of which 283 actually related to June (or prior). This showed 3,189 for July. Today an additional 56 deaths were added to July bringing the total to 3.245 so far.
Given that 5 were reported as 8/1 with a total of 62 there was 1 more death that may/may not be July (could be June?)!
Because....California.
@Chambulo It is way too early to sound the all clear imo, but I think most rational and objective people would see some reasons for optimism in FL. Case loads are actually dropping and have been for weeks. But remember, FL's cases were going up exponentially. Down is really good even if it turns out to be leveling in hindsight. There are other metrics that might give us a clue, like testing and hospital data. New testing is down. You could see something nefarious, or as BW pointed out, it could be because less people are showing symptoms due to the disease receding. Therefore, new tests could be dropping. However, FL also tracks a lot of hospital data that might help us, like how many people are showing up at ERs with Covid like symptoms (see below)? How many with cough or shortness of breath? These data are consistent with receding Covid. As I said, it could merely be a pause. Florida is going to bring the kids back to school and I am concerned that could cause another spike in September. The one big negative is that the huge case jump in mid-June will end up causing a large number of fatalities. That will take time to work out because of the lag, so we will probably be dealing with heavy fatalities for a while. The death rate is a lot lower than winter, but it will still be a lot of people. I will paste a few graphs for you to see what I'm talking about:
I agree that it would be ridiculous to sound the all clear at this point. That isn't what I said. I also didn't say we should be "celebrating the turning of the corner."
It just gets tiresome and discouraging to read the same negative (even if realistic) posts over and over. I find it motivating to see cases go down in some states, even if just a little. My state, Arizona, was one of the worst. Cases have been dropping for a couple weeks now though. I know that testing has been up and down and that alone explains some of the reduction in cases, but I don't think it explains all of it. I'm more motivated now to wear a mask than I was a couple weeks ago when it felt like a losing battle.
just a little something to help in these times.
I wasn't implying that you were saying all clear. I was just pointing out that while I'm optimistic, the game is far from over. I think the biggest positive is that most countries/states that have been hit with the virus hard have raged for a month or two and then the virus has receded--regardless of mitigation. Covid does seem to be much deadlier in winter. But, the amount of immunity doesn't justify the drops, so there is a lot more to learn. Some people think the virus is getting weaker. Some think that the population might have some immunity based on exposure to previous coronaviruses. Some think the infection rate is much higher than stated. Some think it is seasonal. But, if FL, AZ, TX, and CA start dropping it could be a good sign. We'll see.
Glad to see you back. Hope all's good.
I agree, there is so much unknown. It makes it very frustrating.
My parents both tested positive for Covid-19 a couple weeks ago. It took a full week to get the results in Washington state. In their case it wasnt a big deal because they were clearly sick and did end up testing positive, but for someone waiting on test results in order to be cleared to go back to work or stop self isolation, that is far too long.
Anyway, my parents are in their 60s and have other health issues that would make them higher risk. They ended up being sick for about 2.5 weeks. Worse than a typical flu but not bad enough to go to the hospital. Thankfully they are okay and out of the woods now. My dad went back to work this week and my mom goes back tomorrow.
When the doctor cleared my mom to return to work he told her that she should be good for the next 6 months. He said beyond that there just isn't enough data to know. I havent seen or read anything about a 6 month immunity period after infection. Has anyone else heard of this? Seemed very odd to me.
The virus hasn't been around long enough to know how long immunity will last. All we know right now is it seems like people aren't getting re-infected yet.
I never said that you were celebrating. I was trying to comply with the rules of engagement. The politicians who are touting that theory are the same ones that are doing nothing in Florida. If it weren't for local rules the situation would be much worse but to improve by the amount needed the Federal and State Government need to take control. If you thought I was directing the comment to you I assure you that was not my intent.
With regard to Arizona I will reiterate what I keep saying. That is at a point in time only the infections and deaths (if properly and timely reported) are absolute. Everything else is a function of testing. If testing is increased, Cases increase but positivity rates and CFR decline. Conversely if testing is reduced cases decline but positivity rates increase and the CFR increase. In the case of Arizona since 7/24 the testing has increased by almost 30% and as expected the positivity rate has declined. However, the cases have not increased indicating that the decline in positivity is due to reduced spread as well as increased testing.
The point is that Arizona, if I recall correctly, took some statewide steps early July that has caused the improvement. The reduced spread is a result of the actions not due to the "virus fairy". I do find it strange that you appear to be more motivated to wear a mask due to the improvement of late rather than the mounting cases and future death toll that was happening.
My hope is that everyone stops listening to the extremes on both sides and we and more importantly those responsible for everyone's well being take action BEFORE others get to be like Arizona was and Florida is!
I am sure Kirby and Lanning don't rely on the defense to self motivate exclusively! Go Dawgs.
That guidance was on my state site.
“A disposable face shield would suffice in lieu of a mask. Employers may approve masks obtained or made by employees in accordance with guidance on homemade masks found on the Department of Health’s website.”
And it is better than nothing. If a person is having problems breathing in a mask, I rather see him behind a shield than not wearing anything. I wear one when speaking and after a hour you can see the dried spray on the inside surface.
Here is an interesting video showing visually the effect of masks on transmission:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ4Epf8i1uk&t=454s
Is it safe to assume that those that advocate that the 50% of the population who are at risk stay at home would rather the 1% that can't wear mask do likewise to benefit the economy?